Tropical Cyclone Eloise reached the coast of Mozambique on 23 January, with winds of around 140km/h and gusts of up to 160km/h (category 2 tropical cyclone equivalent). It affected Sofala, Manica, the southern part of Zambezia, Inhambane, and Gaza provinces. The epicentre of the cyclone hit Buzi district and brought heavy rainfall that caused Chicamba Dam and Mavuzi Reservoir to overflow. Cyclone Eloise affected 314,000 people, including more than 20,000 people who are living in 31 temporary accommodation centres in Sofala and Inhambane provinces. Over 29,000 houses were affected, mainly in Sofala province. At least 579 classrooms and 86 health centres will need repairs.
A violent insurgency in Cabo Delgado province since 2017 has affected more than 600,000 people anddisplaced more than 200,000 across the province. More than 700,000 people are in need of humanitarian assistance as of June 2020. Conflict has escalated in 2020, with four district capitals temporarily overtaken by insurgents since March. Homes, government buildings,markets, and religious sites were destroyed and at least 19 civilians were killed. Since March, approximately 50,000 people have fled Mocimboa da Praia and Quissanga and the 28 Mayattack displaced thousands in Macomia, where 30,000 IDPs were sheltering.
For background on the insurgency and constraints in Cabo Delgado, see ACAPS’ Short Note from April 2020.
The escalation of insurgent activities in Mozambique’s northernmost province of Cabo Delgado is deteriorating the humanitarian situation of affected populations in the area. More than 11 of the 16 districts in the province have witnessed incessant attacks, about 350 since October 2017, with a significant rise in the death toll. The number of displaced people has risen from around 1,000 in March 2019 to over 115,000 in March 2020. Over two million people are affected by the crisis overall. Apart from protection concerns, livelihoods and food security, healthcare, and education have been severely impacted.
Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall on the evening of 25 April 2019, about 100km North of Pemba city, Cabo Delgado province. It is estimated that 740,000 people have been exposed to winds of around 220km/h, and preliminary government estimates indicate that 163,000 people were directly affected.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall on the city of Beira, central Mozambique on 14 March with sustained wind of up to 185km/h and torrential rains affecting Sofala, Zambezia, Tete and Manica provinces, bringing wide-spread destruction across parts of Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe. So far there are 1.85 million people affected, including nearly 127,500 people displaced and sheltered in 143 accommodation centres; also 468 people were confirmed dead in Mozambique, more than 1,500 people injured, and some 90,000 homes damaged and destroyed. The impact on food security and livelihoods will affect the population in the long term, due to extensive damage to crops right before the harvest due in March-April as well as loss of goods in markets, seeds and tools. Health needs are also increasing with cases of diarrhoea and respiratory diseases reported.
Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall on the evening of 14 March, on Beira city (Sofala province) in central Mozambique. Reports estimate that 600,000 people in Sofala, Zambezia, Tete, Niassa, Manica and Inhambane provinces have been affected and are in need of humanitarian assistance. So far 150 people are reported dead (including 66 due to flooding before the cyclone impact) and more than 1,500 injured, with the toll expected to increase in the coming days. Prior cyclone-related flooding had already displaced 17,000 people and very likely thousands more were displaced after the cyclone passage. Houses, health, and education facilities have been severely damaged in the provinces affected, particularly in and around Beira. Extensive damage to livestock and planted crops has also been reported.
Tropical Cyclone Idai that developed from a tropical depression beginning on 9 March made landfall on the evening of 14 March through Beira city, Sofala province, central Mozambique. 600,000 people are estimated to be affected. Heavy rains and flooding over recent days have already affected 141,000 people, displaced 17,100 and killed 66 people. Stronger winds, storm surge and heavy rains are expected to affect the provinces of Zambezia, Sofala, Tete, Manica and Niassa until 17 March. 15 transit centres have been set up in Zambezia and Tete to assist the displaced population.
Since the beginning of January 2017, heavy seasonal rains have been affecting central and southern provinces in Mozambique. 44 people have died and 79,000 have been affected. The Mozambican authorities issued an orange alert for the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane and Nampula, yet areas of Tete and Sofala provinces have also been affected. The orange alert means that government institutions are planning for an impending disaster. Continued rainfall has been forecasted for the first quarter of 2017. [This report has been republished after a correction]