• Crisis Severity ?
     
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    1.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
     
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    2.6
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    2.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 2,333,000 People exposed [?]
  • 3,000 People displaced [?]
  • 142 Fatalities reported [?]

Overview

29/05/2019

Islamic extremists have been launching violent attacks on civilians in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since October 2017, resulting in at least 2,000 people displaced, nearly 300 people killed, and more than 1,000 properties destroyed. ?Events involving the group, known as Ahlu Sunna Wa-Jama,  have been increasing, with 40 attacks in the first five months of 2019 compared to 50 in all of 2018. ? The group’s activities have been concentrated on the coast of Cabo Delgado from Pemba to the Tanzanian border. Recent events showed a possible shift in tactics from night-time attacks on isolated homes, to coordinated daytime attacks against employees of the foreign oil company Anadarko, currently leading the biggest liquefied natural gas project in the country worth 20 billion dollars.? These attacks are likely to hamper registration activities for October 2019 elections. Government response, however, is leading to human rights abuses. Government forces have detained journalists for covering events in Cabo Delgado and subjected civilians suspected of supporting the group to perquisitions, looting, and arbitrary detention. ? If the government fails to address the social, religious, and political dynamics behind the insurgency, the attacks are very likely to continue. The attacks have already affected the food security situation in Cabo Delgado, where Stressed levels (IPC-2) are reported along the coast compared to Minimal (IPC-1) food insecurity in the rest of the province, due to restricted access to crops and livelihoods for fear of violence. ?

Latest Developments

22/05/2019

13/05: Two attacks on 10 and 11 May by assailants suspected to be behind the armed group that has been carrying out attacks in Cabo Delgado since October 2017 were reported. Two people were killed while another was severely injured. Between 3-5 May suspected Islamist insurgents carried out four separate attacks leading to several hundreds houses burnt and at least 7 people killed in the districts of Macomia and Meluco. Attacks on electoral posts are resulting in delayed registration for the October elections. The attacks in the northern province have been increasing, although the motives behind the attacks continue to be unknown. ?

Violence increases in Cabo Delgado resulting in displacement, protection needs, and deteriorated access to food and livelihoods

Latest update: 21/06/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

Islamic extremists have been launching violent attacks on civilians in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since October 2017, resulting in at least 2,000 people displaced, nearly 300 people killed, and more than 1,000 properties destroyed. ? Events involving the group, known as Ahlu Sunna Wa-Jama, have been increasing, with 20 attacks in the first two months of 2019 compared with 50 in all of 2018. ?The group’s activities have been concentrated on the coast of Cabo Delgado from Pemba to the Tanzanian border, and recent events showed a possible shift in tactics from night-time attacks on isolated homes, to coordinated daytime attacks against employees of the foreign oil company Anadarko, currently leading the biggest liquefied natural gas project in the country worth 20 billion dollars?. Government response, however, is leading to human rights abuses. Government forces have detained journalists for covering events in Cabo Delgado and subjected civilians suspected of supporting the group to perquisitions, looting, and arbitrary detention. ? If the government fails to address the social, religious, and political dynamics behind the insurgency, the attacks are very likely to continue.

IMPACT
The attacks have already affected the food security situation in Cabo Delgado, where Stressed levels (IPC-2) are reported along the coast compared to Minimal (IPC-1) food insecurity in the rest of the province. ? The insurgents’ strategy has been focused on destruction of property, burning houses and stalls, leading to displacement and shelter needs. ? Should this type of attack continue, food insecurity is likely to increase as more households are displaced and unable to access food or engage in agricultural activities.  Livelihoods will be impacted due to insecurity and destruction. Education will likely be affected due to fear of attacks on public schools by the armed group in a show of dissent towards the State. Protection issues are likely to increase, arising from both the insurgent activity and the response of government forces. Currently there are no reported constraints on humanitarian access.

This risk was identified in the March Quarterly Risk Report

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