The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to:
• ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed;
• gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth;
• respond to specific requests for risk reports.
All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Heavy rainfall in Bamako on 16 May caused flash floods in all six communes of the city, flooding streets, damaging houses and washing away property. At least 16 people have been killed and several others injured. 10 people are known to have died in Niamakoro district, one of the worst affected areas. According to initial assessments, 101 families (around 575 people) have been affected, with some of them forced from their homes and staying in temporary accommodation. Up to 300 households (around 1,710 people) may have been affected in total. According to the Malian Red Cross, food, medical care and medicine, as well as NFIs are the priority needs.
We looked into nine indicators to rank and compare the humanitarian access levels worldwide. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months. 13 new countries entered the ranking since the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access report released in August 2018. Physical constraints and restriction/obstruction of access to services and assistance are the most common challenges.
In the region of Liptako Gourma, overlapping Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, an upsurge in violence since the beginning of 2018 has led to the displacement of more than 235,000 people. In Mali, long-standing tensions between Dogon (pastoralist farmers) and Fulani (nomadic herders) communities over access to land and water points escalated into clashes in 2018, and “self-defence” militias associated with both communities have led a series of attacks on the civilian population. The conflict, exploited by Islamist armed groups to strengthen their presence in the region, has spilled over into both Niger and Burkina Faso where tensions between communities are increasing and attacks against civilians, led by armed groups operating across the borders, have become more frequent. In Burkina Faso, the country most affected by the upsurge of violence in 2019, more than 70,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the year. IDPs are in urgent need of food and shelter assistance in particular. Access to health services and education are also constrained for both IDPs and host communities.
These scenarios consider how migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa (including across the Mediterranean Sea) might evolve in the first half of 2019 and the potential humanitarian consequences.
These scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Rather, they describe situations that could occur in the coming six months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working on migration. The time frame is until June 2019 although the scenarios may remain valid some months longer.
ACAPS has developed these scenarios for the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) under the DFID-funded Safety, Support and Solutions – Phase 2 programme.
Heavy rain that began in late July 2018 has caused flooding in several parts of the country. As of late August, more than 18,000 people were affected, 3,200 houses destroyed, and some 1,800 head of cattle killed. The affected populations are in need of shelter, NFI, and WASH assistance. Longer-term livelihoods assistance is highly likely to be needed in the aftermath of the floods.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.
- The floods that began on 11 July brought heavy and above average rain and have so far affected some 9,500–15,000 people across Mali, including the regions of Sikasso, Koulikoro, Segou, Mopti, Timbuktu, Gao, and Kidal.
- 13 people have died. The total population of these areas is roughly 10,000,000
- Based on experiences from floods in 2012 and 2013 that were less serious than this year’s predictions, up to 30,000 people are likely to be affected, though a precise prediction is impossible to make at this point. The capital, Bamako, is at risk of flooding.