Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.30 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.90 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.40 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian constraints.3.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Mali: Bamako floods
The security situation continues to worsen as violence spreads from the north to the more populated central regions of the country. The presence and activities of armed groups not included in the 2015 agreement continues to influence the security situation. Clashes between Dogon (pastoralist farmers) and Fulani (nomadic herders) communities over land and access to water points have also increased in central and northern regions, fuelled by the presence of Islamist armed groups and the recruitment of Fulani herders.?
Insecurity has disrupted economic and trade activities, resulting in the unreliable availability of food in the markets. Prices have increased, especially in the Mopti, Timbuktu, and Gao regions. Risks of banditry and attacks along commercial roads have deterred traders. Limited access to farmlands and the disruption of normal transhumance patterns due to insecurity have affected livelihoods. Although food production is expected to improve overall in the country due to an adequate level of rainfall in 2018, populations affected by the conflict remain food insecure. IEDs are commonly used by armed groups in northern and central Mali to target Malian or MINUSMA military convoys, and have affected a growing number of civilians in 2018. Humanitarian access is constrained by conflict and insecurity.?
INFORM measures Mali's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be high, at 6.4/10. Hazard exposure, a lack of coping capacity, and vulnerability are all at concerning levels: 6.1/10, 6.9/10 and 6.1/10 respectively.
08/08: Timbuktu region has experienced an increase in violence and insecurity in recent weeks, which has negatively impacted civilians as well as humanitarian organisations operating in the area. As of 6 August, the ICRC has suspended operations in Timbuktu after one of its vehicles was stolen at gunpoint. Since the beginning of the year the ICRC has lost six vehicles in similar incidents in Mali. Despite the presence of a UN stabilisation mission and an ongoing French military operation, large areas of Mali fall outside government control and humanitarian access remains limited in many parts of the country.?
Humanitarian access has remained stable since August 2018. The continuous presence of Islamist armed groups and military operations in the northern and central regions, as well as the intercommunal conflict in Mopti region, are hampering humanitarian access. Though attacks against humanitarian staff decreased during the reporting period compared to 2018, violence continues to constrain access. At least one aid worker was killed, three others injured, and five were kidnapped between September 2018 and February 2019. Some 88 security incidents impacting local and international NGOs were registered, mainly cases of robberies and intimidations. Along the main roads, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) pose a danger to humanitarian convoys, security forces, and civilians: in 2018, more than 600 people, including 234 civilians, were killed or injured by IEDs.
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Violence has spiked significantly in Central Mali since the beginning of 2019, fueled by the spread of radical Islamist organisations and intercommunal tensions – particularly between members of the Dogon and Fulani ethnic groups. The Dogon, who are mostly farmers, and Fulani, who are mostly herders, have periodically fought one another over land, water, and other resources, though the frequency and intensity of violence has increased dramatically in recent months. In March, Dogon militias raided Ogossagou, a Fulani village in Mopti region, killing at least 157 people.? This was followed by a number of retaliatory attacks against the Dogon, the most violent attack in June in Sobane-Kou village leading to up to 95 deaths and a large number of houses destroyed.? Tensions between Dogon and Fulani groups have been exacerbated by fundamentalist groups such as al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), and Islamic State, which have steadily expanded their presence in Central Mali in recent years, drawing recruits from local villages and becoming increasingly involved in local-level disputes.?
In light of recent attacks, there is a significant risk that violence will escalate further in the coming months. Attacks against Ogossagou and Sobane-Kou are among the deadliest since the start of Mali’s security crisis in 2012 and will almost certainly lead to a hardening of tensions between the Dogon and Fulani, potentially sparking a cycle of violence that would be difficult to reverse.? The risk of further escalation of violence is made worse by the fact that the Malian military and international peacekeeping operations – notably MINUSMA, G5, and Operation Barkhane – have faced significant challenges in ensuring the protection of civilians.?
Since January 2019, nearly 160,000 people have been displaced as a result of violence in Central and Northern Mali.? If there is further escalation of violence in Central Mali, it is almost certain that thousands more people will be displaced, placing strain on host communities and social services in conflict-affected areas. Shelter and protection needs can be anticipated as a result of houses being destroyed in attacks and violence carried out against civilians. During the March attack in Ogossagou, more than 400 houses were destroyed and most of the violence was directed against civilian targets, including children and the elderly.? Central Mali is one of the poorest and least developed regions of the country, and pre-existing health, education, and WASH needs mean that people have a heightened level of vulnerability, even before the effects of violence are taken into account. Humanitarian access remains a challenge in Central Mali and is likely to get worse in the context of increased insecurity and intercommunal violence ?
This risk was identified in the June Quarterly Risk Report
Protection is a priority for populations affected by insecurity, particularly in the north and central regions.
Food security and nutrition is of particular concern in the regions affected by the floods, drought and conflict, especially in northern and central Mali.
Health needs are high as access to services is poor and epidemics pose a major risk.
Information Gaps and Needs
Limited access to the northern and central regions makes it difficult to assess exact needs.
Limited or lack of information on access constraints for the population to humanitarian assistance and basic social services.