• Crisis Severity ?
    3.6
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    3.6
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    3.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    3.6
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    4.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 19,307,000 Total population [?]
  • 8,700,000 People affected [?]
  • 961,000 People displaced [?]
  • 3,900,000 People in Need [?]

Overview

24/05/2019

The security situation continues to worsen as violence spreads from the north to the more populated central regions of the country. The presence and activities of armed groups not included in the 2015 agreement continues to influence the security situation. Clashes between Dogon (pastoralist farmers) and Fulani (nomadic herders) communities over land and access to water points have also increased in central and northern regions, fuelled by the presence of Islamist armed groups and the recruitment of Fulani herders.?

Insecurity has disrupted economic and trade activities, resulting in the unreliable availability of food in the markets. Prices have increased, especially in the Mopti, Timbuktu, and Gao regions. Risks of banditry and attacks along commercial roads have deterred traders. Limited access to farmlands and the disruption of normal transhumance patterns due to insecurity have affected livelihoods. Although food production is expected to improve overall in the country due to an adequate level of rainfall in 2018, populations affected by the conflict remain food insecure. IEDs are commonly used by armed groups in northern and central Mali to target Malian or MINUSMA military convoys, and have affected a growing number of civilians in 2018. Humanitarian access is constrained by conflict and insecurity.?

INFORM measures Mali's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be high, at 6.4/10. Hazard exposure, a lack of coping capacity, and vulnerability are all at concerning levels: 6.1/10, 6.9/10 and 6.1/10 respectively.

Latest Developments

29/10/2019

No significant recent humanitarian developments. This country is being monitored by our analysis team. 

Access Constraints

31/10/2019

Very high constraints

Humanitarian access is challenged by poor infrastructure; the continuous presence of Islamist armed groups and military operations in the northern and central regions; intercommunal conflict in Mopti region, and an increase in incidents targeting aid actors. 70 security incidents involving NGOs were registered over the last reporting period, with 10 aid workers kidnapped and five injured. In some areas, looting of humanitarian organisations is common, with an average of six incidents a month causing reduction or suspension of operations. Further, the State has been accused of having an anti-Fulani bias which may impede Fulanis’ access to assistance. Improvised explosive devices also pose a danger: The United Nations Mine Action Service has reported 138 incidents since the start of 2019. Northern and central regions remain the most difficult to access.

Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.

Escalation of inter-communal violence in central Mali leads to increased internal displacement and humanitarian needs

Latest update: 16/08/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

Violence has spiked significantly in Central Mali since the beginning of 2019, fueled by the spread of radical Islamist organisations and intercommunal tensions – particularly between members of the Dogon and Fulani ethnic groups. The Dogon, who are mostly farmers, and Fulani, who are mostly herders, have periodically fought one another over land, water, and other resources, though the frequency and intensity of violence has increased dramatically in recent months. In March, Dogon militias raided Ogossagou, a Fulani village in Mopti region, killing at least 157 people.? This was followed by a number of retaliatory attacks against the Dogon, the most violent attack in June in Sobane-Kou village leading to up to 95 deaths and a large number of houses destroyed.? Tensions between Dogon and Fulani groups have been exacerbated by fundamentalist groups such as al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), and Islamic State, which have steadily expanded their presence in Central Mali in recent years, drawing recruits from local villages and becoming increasingly involved in local-level disputes.?   

In light of recent attacks, there is a significant risk that violence will escalate further in the coming months. Attacks against Ogossagou and Sobane-Kou are among the deadliest since the start of Mali’s security crisis in 2012 and will almost certainly lead to a hardening of tensions between the Dogon and Fulani, potentially sparking a cycle of violence that would be difficult to reverse.?   The risk of further escalation of violence is made worse by the fact that the Malian military and international peacekeeping operations – notably MINUSMA, G5, and Operation Barkhane – have faced significant challenges in ensuring the protection of civilians.?   

IMPACT

Since January 2019, nearly 160,000 people have been displaced as a result of violence in Central and Northern Mali.?   If there is further escalation of violence in Central Mali, it is almost certain that thousands more people will be displaced, placing strain on host communities and social services in conflict-affected areas. Shelter and protection needs can be anticipated as a result of houses being destroyed in attacks and violence carried out against civilians. During the March attack in Ogossagou, more than 400 houses were destroyed and most of the violence was directed against civilian targets, including children and the elderly.? Central Mali is one of the poorest and least developed regions of the country, and pre-existing health, education, and WASH needs mean that people have a heightened level of vulnerability, even before the effects of violence are taken into account. Humanitarian access remains a challenge in Central Mali and is likely to get worse in the context of increased insecurity and intercommunal violence ?

This risk was identified in the June Quarterly Risk Report

Read this risk

Key Priorities

10/09/2019

Protection is a priority for populations affected by insecurity, particularly in the north and central regions.?

Food security and nutrition is of particular concern in the regions affected by the floods, drought and conflict, especially in northern and central Mali.?

Health needs are high as access to services is poor and epidemics pose a major risk.?

Education has been restricted due to ongoing insecurity, with a total of 920 schools closed as of June 2019, just before the start of the school year.?

Information Gaps and Needs

31/05/2019

Limited access to the northern and central regions makes it difficult to assess exact needs.

Limited or lack of information on access constraints for the population to humanitarian assistance and basic social services.