Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.30 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.90 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
The humanitarian situation in Mali continues to deteriorate as conflict drives displacement and increased humanitarian needs, particularly in the regions bordering Burkina Faso and Niger. Direct confrontations between two rival militant groups, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, have added a new dimension to the complex security situation in the country. Clashes between pastoralist farmers and nomadic herder communities over land and access to water points are common in central and northern regions, and the situation is aggravated by the limited access to resources and the presence of militias and armed groups.?
Insecurity has disrupted economic and trade activities, resulting in unreliable food availability in markets. It has also limited access to farmlands and markets, and disrupted normal pastoralist patterns, affecting livelihoods.?
Men are most affected by violent incidents (81% of which involve men and boys), as they are often targets for extrajudicial or retaliation killings, kidnapping, and forced recruitment. Women make up 52% of people in need in 2021. They are taking on increasing responsibilities within the family unit, often as heads of households, yet compared to men they have limited means or access to means to meet their families’ needs. Incidents that mostly affect women, such as sexual and gender-based violence, are underreported.?
From 1 January to 31 March 2021, 421 human rights violations and abuses, which resulted in the deaths of 106 people, have been documented. The responsible for these abuses include armed groups, militias and community armed groups, and national and international armed forces. ?
The provision of services to the population is also affected by insecurity. 10% of health structures in the country are not operational. Around 2.5 million children in Mali are estimated to be outside of the education system, and around 1,595 schools are closed as a result of insecurity. Seasonal flooding and the occupation of schools by newly displaced people further affect education services. ?
Mali is currently undergoing a political transition period towards an elected government and parliament, following a military coup on 24 May 2021 – the second in nine months. General elections are scheduled for February 2022. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
very high constraints
Access constraints remain very high as armed groups continue to expand their area of influence, largely in the north of the country and particularly in Gao and Ménaka regions. Clashes between non-state armed groups and with the Malian army, often with the support of pro-government militia, regularly disrupt humanitarian activities.
The surrounding of certain localities, the blocking of key roads, and robberies by armed groups in areas under their control have further reduced the movement of populations and humanitarian workers. In the north of the country, insecurity often temporarily suspends humanitarian activities, delaying assistance for populations in need. Insecurity has forced thousands of people to flee to areas where they continue to be exposed to violence from armed groups and where assistance is not available. While access disruptions are always observed, however, they are generally temporary.
Violence also affects humanitarian workers. Kidnapping and harassment by armed groups at illegal checkpoints have been recorded over the past six months. Aid has often been diverted following these attacks. Since June, armed groups have killed at least two humanitarian workers and injured another in attacks in the Kayes and Kidal regions. Attacks on public services and the destruction of numerous telecommunication infrastructures have continued to disrupt aid delivery. During the rainy season (mid-May to September), flooding and road damage aggravated physical constraints.
Sanctions by the Economic Community of West African States, which have delayed the transport of certain humanitarian supplies, were lifted in July, reducing related administrative constraints.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – December 2022.
Total number of conflict-related fatalities per year
Source : ACLED - https://www.acleddata.com/data/
Protection: Protection is a priority for populations affected by insecurity, particularly in the northern and central regions. Protection incidents include attacks on civilians, targeting of civilian infrastructure, SGBV, child exploitation and forced recruitment, and the presence of IEDs.?
Food security: The food security of vulnerable households in central Mali is expected to deteriorate from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels between June–September 2021, because of the pastoral and agricultural lean seasons, insecurity, and the predicted continued effects of COVID-19 restrictions?
WASH: Population movements and armed group activity continue to stress Mali's WASH infrastructure. Newly displaced populations and their host communities often share the same insufficient infrastructures. This leads to increased cases of malnutrition and communicable diseases. Drought and floods increase the need for WASH support.?
Information Gaps and Needs
Limited access to the northern and central regions makes it difficult to assess exact needs.
There is limited or lack of information on access constraints for the population to humanitarian assistance and basic social services.
UPDATE FROM THE FEBRUARY 2022 RISK ANALYSIS
HIGH RISK LEVEL
Prolonged economic sanctions lead to the loss of livelihoods and increased food insecurity
This risk has partially materialised. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) economic sanctions against Mali were lifted on 3 July 2022 after the junta presented a timetable for the next presidential elections, which it set for March 2024. The individual sanctions against the leaders of the junta and the suspension of Mali from the organs of ECOWAS remain until the return of civilian power in the country?. This risk has partially materialised in terms of rising food prices, but the impact of sanctions on humanitarian access has been very limited. The same can be said for the impact of sanctions on livestock farming. The increase in food insecurity has materialised, but food security was expected to deteriorate nationwide regardless of the sanctions, making it difficult to attribute solely to the economic sanctions that lasted almost six months. The decline in trade flows with external markets in connection with ECOWAS sanctions has increased food prices, which continue to be high. Poor households have seen their access to food deteriorate further?.
Read the February 2022 Risk Analysis here.
UPDATE FROM THE FEBRUARY 2022 RISK ANALYSIS
MEDIUM RISK LEVEL
The withdrawal of the Barkhane force and consequent increase in clashes and territorial expansion between armed groups result in displacement, protection concerns, and the deterioration of humanitarian access
This risk has materialised. Since the announcement of the withdrawal of the Barkhane force from Mali in February 2022 and its actual withdrawal in August, non-state armed groups have continued to expand their presence and activity across the country. The presence of non-state armed groups had already been affecting the north and centre of Mali; the humanitarian situation has also since started deteriorating in the south?. After a few rare incursions, the activity of armed groups in the south of the country is intensifying, closing several schools particularly in the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro?. Despite the junta promising to foster the effectiveness and response of the Malian army − with support from the Russian paramilitary company Wagner − after the departure of the Barkhane force, attacks targeting civilians and troops have multiplied across the country?. Abuses against civilians by the Malian security forces and the paramilitary group Wagner are also reported?. The attacks are getting closer to the capital Bamako. One of these attacks targeted the Kati military camp on 22 July, where the leader of the junta was living. This attack indicates a desire by the non-state armed groups to increase their activity in areas where they were previously not significantly active or present. The number of displaced people has grown in the regions of Bamako, Kayes, Koulikoro, and Sikasso as a result of the surge in attacks. The total number of displaced people across the country had risen from around 362,000 in February to over 396,000 as at 31 July?.
Read the February 2022 Risk Analysis here.