Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)2.50 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.2.00 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.20 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.1.60 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Andoy, Anosy, Atsimo-Anderfana, Atsimo-Atsinana, and Vatovavy Fitovinany regions in southern (Grand Sud) and southeastern (Grand Sud-Est) Madagascar are experiencing a food insecurity crisis driven by a prolonged drought, below-average crop production between 2019–2021, and the economic effects of COVID-19 restrictions. In the period January–April 2022, an estimated 1.3 million people (30% of the population analysed) are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security levels and more than 330,000 people (8% of the population analysed) Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4). Androy region in the Grand Sud is the most affected, with almost 60% of its total population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity outcomes.?
Many households are employing livelihood coping strategies, such as selling houses or land, practicing illegal or risky activities, migrating to urban centres, and begging. Households below the poverty line also resort to selling productive assets and reducing the quantity, frequency, and quality of meals, with some communities resorting to consuming almost exclusively wild food. Internal migration from southern to northern Madagascar resumed in April 2021 after COVID-19 movement restrictions were eased. Migrants are facing challenges in settling in the north, such as increased discrimination, stigmatisation, and xenophobia, because of the economic impact of COVID-19 and increased competition over resources.?
Projections for the period May–August 2022 suggest an improvement in food security levels, as 25% of the analysed population in Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est will likely be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity levels or worse, as opposed to 37% in the current projection. Despite the apparent improvement, the lean season in 2022–2023 will likely begin earlier and be more severe than in previous years because of a significantly below-average rainy season at the beginning of 2022 in the southern regions. The impact of the 2022 cyclone season will likely deteriorate food security levels and contribute to increasing food prices across the country.?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Nutrition: 500,000 children in Andoy, Anosy, and Atsimo-Anderfana regions are projected to be at risk of malnutrition and in need of nutrition services between May 2021 and April 2022, including 110,000 severely malnourished children. Because of lack of food, many households eat wild plants such as raketa, which provides few valuable nutrients.?
Health: Needs for health services increased as acute food shortages and malnutrition compromised disease resilience. In October 2021, drought and water shortages led to an increase in cases of bloody diarrhoea – a waterborne disease – in Anosy region. Other diseases that affect households in the Grand Sud include malaria, polio, plague, measles, and COVID-19.?
Water: Drought continuously depletes water levels, increasing water extraction and water trucking difficulties. Obtaining water is very challenging, as people need to walk long distances or dig deep boreholes to reach a water source. Clean water for drinking and cooking is needed.?
Livelihood: Most people in southern Madagascar live on agriculture, livestock, and fishing. Households have depleted their assets and are facing the risk of a total collapse of livelihoods. Drought, below-average rainfall, and a lack of irrigation water are some factors that have affected livelihoods. Sandstorms, locusts and fall armyworm infestations, and a Rift Valley fever outbreak have specifically affected agricultural and livestock activities.?