Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.00 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.2.40 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.1.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Andoy, Anosy, Atsimo-Anderfana, Atsimo-Atsinana, and Vatovavy Fitovinany regions in southern (Grand Sud) and southeastern (Grand Sud-Est) Madagascar are experiencing a food insecurity crisis driven by a prolonged drought, 2022 tropical cyclones and rising inflation. In the period September–November 2022, an estimated 1.95 million people (37% of the population analysed) are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and above food security levels. More than 221,000 people (4% of the population analysed) are facing Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4). Androy and Vatovavy Fitovinany regions are the most affected, with more than 45% of their total population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity outcomes.?
Many households are employing livelihood coping strategies, such as selling houses or land, practicing illegal or risky activities, migrating to urban centres, and begging. Households below the poverty line also resort to selling productive assets and reducing the quantity, frequency, and quality of meals, with some communities resorting to consuming almost exclusively wild food. Internal migration from southern to northern Madagascar resumed in April 2021 after COVID-19 movement restrictions were eased. Migrants are facing challenges in settling in the north, such as increased discrimination, stigmatisation, and xenophobia, because of the economic impact of COVID-19 and increased competition over resources.?
Projections for the period December 2022–March 2023 suggest a slight deterioration in food security levels, as 39% of the analysed population in Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est will likely be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity levels or worse, as opposed to 37% in the current projection. The residual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely deteriorate food security levels and contribute to increasing food prices across the country.?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Nutrition: 479,000 children aged under five in Grand-Sud and Grand-Sud Est are projected to be at risk of malnutrition and in need of nutrition services between May 2022 and April 2023, including 92,000 severely malnourished children. ?
Health: Needs for health services increased as acute food shortages and malnutrition compromised disease resilience. The drought and subsequent water shortages led to an increase in cases of bloody diarrhoea – a waterborne disease. Other diseases that affect households in the Grand Sud include malaria, polio, plague, measles, and COVID-19.?
Water: Drought continuously depletes water levels, increasing water extraction and water trucking difficulties. Obtaining water is very challenging, as people need to walk long distances or dig deep boreholes to reach a water source. Clean water for drinking and cooking is needed.?
Livelihood: Most people in southern Madagascar live on agriculture, livestock, and fishing. Households have depleted their assets and are facing the risk of a total collapse of livelihoods. Drought, below-average rainfall, and a lack of irrigation water are some factors that have affected livelihoods. Sandstorms, locusts and fall armyworm infestations, and a Rift Valley fever outbreak have specifically affected agricultural and livestock activities.?