ACAPS and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have produced a new set of Central and West Mediterranean migration scenarios, outlining possible developments in migration via Libya, Italy, Spain and other transit countries over the next six months.
Following scenario-building workshops in Budapest in March, four scenarios were identified:
- Slight increase in migration via North Africa to Europe
- Large increase in migration in readmissions
- Enforced closure of central Mediterranean route
- Improved internal security in Libya
The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.
More than 173,500 refugees and migrants have reached Italy so far in 2016, around 29,000 more than in the same period last year. While the vast majority still use Libya as the departure point to Europe, more are using Egypt and Algeria. The nationality of arrivals is evolving, with fewer Eritreans and more Egyptians.
Protection is a primary concern. The estimated number of deaths on the Central Mediterranean route has grown to over 4,200 people this year, compared to less than 2,900 at the same point in 2015. Many people die on the journey over land to north Africa, but this number is not known. Migrants and refugees also face detention, sexual exploitation, and forced labour. The number of unaccompanied minors arriving in Italy is growing.
Between 1 January and 20 April 2015, there were about 18 times as many refugee deaths in the Mediterranean Sea compared to the same period last year, according to initial estimates from the International Organization for Migration: 1,750 people died trying to reach Europe from North Africa and Turkey. In 2014, more than 3,400 people are thought to have died attempting the crossing. Over the past 18 months, Italian ships have rescued more than 200,000 people in the Mediterranean Sea. While there has been a significant number of departures from Tunisia, the scale of sea migration from Libya grew exponentially in the second half of 2014 and the trend continues into 2015. Since political instability in Libya escalated into outright conflict in 2014, there has been a massive increase in the number of people attempting to cross the Mediterranean to Europe. Numbers spiked in the first months of 2015. Contributing factors include increasing humanitarian needs in Libya, tighter border restrictions for third-country nationals trying to enter Libya’s neighbouring countries, and impunity for smugglers.
It is estimated that two million people, almost one-third of the total population, may have been affected by the conflict in Libya, due to displacement, the disruption of food, fuel, water, and medical supplies, as well as electricity, gas, healthcare and public services. This report presents the available secondary data on the impact of the crisis. Current data is supplemented with information on the impact of the 2011 crisis and/or pre-crisis data wherever possible.
The profile covers an analysis of the main drivers of the humanitarian situation, the main humanitarian concerns and an overview of the most important outstanding information gaps.