Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.80 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Libya: Escalation of conflict
Civil war since 2014 has generated shortages of food, fuel, water, medical supplies and electricity, and reduced access to healthcare and public services. Multiple parties are fighting for control of the country. Libya is divided among two governments: the House of Representatives (HOR) based in eastern Libya and a UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli. Both governments rely on the support of militias, and alliances are subject to local territorial, political and economic interests. The Libyan National Army (LNA), a mix of tribal or regional-based armed groups allied with the HOR, is another major stakeholder to the conflict. ?
Insecurity has greatly limited humanitarian access and hindered the planning and delivery of humanitarian assistance. Healthcare is limited by lack of medical staff, structural damage, and shortages of medicines. Attacks on medical personnel and facilities are frequently reported, often leading to suspension of services.?Violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, including attacks against civilians, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearance, and torture, are widespread and committed by all parties to the conflict. As of July 2019, Libya counts over 655,000 migrants and refugees, who are particularly vulnerable to the violence.?
No recent significant humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Very High constraints
Insecurity throughout the country continues to hamper access. The implementation of humanitarian activities remains unpredictable due to multiple factors including unexploded ordnance and improvised explosives contamination, threats of kidnapping of personnel, proliferation of armed groups with no clear chain of command, and periodic escalation of violence. Armed groups frequently target aid workers and health facilities. Access to detention centres remains very limited. Lack of a unified government perpetuates a volatile administrative environment regarding visas and other requirements to implement activities in Libya. Since April 2019, conflict has escalated in Tripoli, restricting humanitarian access to the capital. At the height of the escalation, civilians close to the frontline were unable to leave due to the fighting intensity. Humanitarian operations responding to the fighting in Murzuq, which intensified in August 2019, are hindered by increased insecurity, cut supply chains, and tribal affiliation of personnel.
Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.
Evolution of violent events in Libya since start escalation in Tripoli (April 2019)
Source : ACLED - https://www.acleddata.com/
Conflict in Tripoli
In April 2019 conflict between the LNA and the opposing GNA escalated after Khalifa Haftar, commander of the LNA, announced an offensive on Tripoli where the GNA is based. Fighting in and around the capital Tripoli is affecting 1.5 million people. ?Clashes between the LNA, the GNA and their respective allied forces have caused the displacement of more than 140,000 people and over 100 civilian deaths ?. Disproportionate and indiscriminate use of explosive weapons has raised grave protection concerns. Infrastructure, including water and power facilities, has been damaged. Severe movement restrictions have impacted civilian access to services, and humanitarian operations. ?
Neither parties appear to have taken significant territory since June 2019 when the GNA captured the LNA’s main base in Ghariyan. Although the conflict in Tripoli has stalemated, escalations in the southern parts of Tripoli continue to affect the safety and lives of civilians in the surrounding areas. As of December 2019, the frontlines include the Aziziyya area where the LNA launched a campaign in an attempt to isolate GNA forces in Ghariyan from support forces in southern Tripoli. The extensive involvement of international allies has been crucial to the dynamics of the conflict. International actors are intervening in Libya and supplying arms, including fighter jets and drones, to different parties of the conflict despite the UN arms embargo.?
Migrants and refugees in Tripoli have been particularly impacted by the conflict due to their vulnerable status. Detained migrants close to the frontline have been trapped, sometimes without access to basic supplies. ?LNA fighters have indiscriminately shot at detained migrants.?There are reports that armed groups running detention centres are recruiting migrants to support militias aligned with the GNA by moving and loading weapons, cleaning cars impacted by violence, and taking part in the fighting. ?On the night of 2 July, two airstrikes hit Tajoura detention centre in the outskirts of Tripoli, killing 53 people, including six children, and wounding 130 more.?
Protection 490,000 people are exposed to physical harm and human rights violations. Migrants are particularly exposed to violence by Libyan security forces, militias, smuggling networks and criminal gangs. ?
Health Libya is struggling with an overstretched and underdeveloped healthcare system. Healthcare facilities are unable to provide sufficient care to the 554,000 people in the whole of Libya in critical need of healthcare assistance because of the poor quality of services, low capacity of the workforce and shortages of essential drugs and supplies. ?
Tensions in south Libya
The oil-rich south of Libya is home to smuggling groups and militias, and ethnic and tribal fighting is commonplace. Intensification of fighting since the start of 2019 has been taking place amid growing insecurity in the region and a widespread shutdown of public services. ?
Tensions in Murzuq district increased after the LNA took control of the Fezzan region in February-March 2019, shifting the power balance in an area previously dominated by the Tebu tribe. Although alliances in Libya are fluid, the Alahali tribe is generally considered to be allied to the LNA, while the Tebu tribe has been receiving support from the opposing GNA. LNA control put the Alahali in a stronger position relative to the Tebu. However, the relocation of LNA troops following the launch of an offensive on Tripoli in April left a power vacuum in the south, sparking violence between the two communities. ?
In August, tensions in southern Fezzan escalated and a series of violent clashes in Murzuq resulted in the displacement of more than 26,000 people as of late September. Waves of airstrikes launched by LNA-allied forces hit civilian targets, including an IDP shelter. The violence destroyed infrastructure, disrupted markets, and hindered humanitarian access. The affected population reported multiple needs including shelter, health and food. Fighting has killed over 100 people and injured hundreds more. On 1 December, a drone strike killed nine children and two women in Murzuq.?