Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
An estimated 24.1 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia need humanitarian assistance because of drought triggered by fourth consecutive failed rainy seasons. Households in the affected areas are experiencing crop failures, a lack of water, and significant livestock deaths. Before the current drought, people in the Ethiopian, Kenyan, and Somali arid and semi-arid regions were already highly food-insecure. In 2021, more than 22.3 million people across the three countries faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity levels as a result of armed conflict, rising food prices, and the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and people’s livelihoods. Other recurrent natural hazards, such as floods and desert locust invasions, and the recent disruption to international trade and negative macroeconomic impact related to the war in Ukraine have also contributed to making people more vulnerable to the impact of the current drought. ?
In Ethiopia, the lack of water and grazing is driving households to migrate alongside their livestock in search of water, pasture, and food. In Somalia and Kenya, the lack of resources and people’s movement in search of water and pasture for livestock is triggering resource-based conflicts between communities, leading to further displacements. In Somalia, clashes over grazing land ownership killed at least 15 people between 20 December and 20 January in Laas Caanood district, Sool region. Similarly, in Kenya, clashes resulting from competition over water and pasture resources killed at least 17 people between October–December 2021 in Saku subcounty of Marsabit county. ?
After the fourth below-average rainfall in early 2022 (normally March–June) in most eastern African countries, the risk of a fifth failure of the upcoming rainy season (normally October–December) remains. This possibility threatens to increase the number of people experiencing severe acute food insecurity in the drought-affected areas of the three countries. An estimated 23–26 million people will likely face acute food insecurity by February 2023 in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Buurhakaba and Baidoa districts of southern Somalia are at risk of facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food insecurity outcomes in the next months.?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Horn of Africa analysis series
ACAPS is working on a new series of analyses on the drought impact in the Horn of Africa.
The series will focus on the most affected countries and their worst affected areas. The series will provide country profile analysis, highlighting the main needs and key affected population groups. It will also examine the drivers of drought and the aggravating factors. The series will include a regional outlook of drought evolution over the next six months. This project is partially supported by the H2H Network. See publications available below:
- Kenya: drought in Turkana and Marsabit counties
- Somalia: drought in Banadir and Bay regions
- Ethiopia: drought in Oromia and Somali regions
Food and Livelihood: Drought has resulted in below-average harvest and a rise in basic food prices driving high food needs. Drought also led to the death of livestock because of lack of pasture. Livelihood activities of pastoralists and farmers living in drought-impacted areas have been disrupted. ?
WASH: Water sources, including water catchments, boreholes, pans, and dams, have dried up. Needs for drinking water and water for agricultural and livestock activities have been increasing. Emergency water trucking services are needed. The risk of disease outbreaks caused by inadequate access to sanitation and hygiene facilities remains high.?
Health and Nutrition: A surge in acute diarrhoea and waterborne diseases in Somalia is caused by the lack of access to safe drinking water. Malnutrition rates across the three countries have been increasing because of drought and conflict. In Baidoa district, Somalia, rates of chronic malnutrition among children under 5increased from 30% to 48% in October–November 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. In the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' region of Ethiopia, hospital admissions for severe acute malnutrition increased by 32% in 2021 compared to 2020.?
Education: Children’s access to education is disrupted because of households' internal migration in search of water and food resources. Absentee and dropout rates have increased. For example, in West Hararge and East Hararge zones (Ethiopia), 334 schools were forced to close because of lack of water supplied, affecting access to education for 300,000 children. In Kenya, between October–December, almost 13,000 students did not attend school because of lack of school meals and water.?