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Country analysis

Iran


In 2025, Iran still hosts one of the world's largest Afghan refugee populations, with approximately 750,000 registered and an estimated 2.6 million undocumented Afghans residing in the country. 96% live in urban areas, while the remaining 4% reside in refugee settlements. Since the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, over one million Afghans have sought refuge in Iran.

The Iranian Government has implemented policies to provide Amayesh cards to registered refugees, granting them conditional freedom of movement, temporary work permits, and access to national education and healthcare systems. That said, the influx of new arrivals has complicated the card renewal process.

Undocumented Afghans face significant challenges, including limited access to medical services, education, and employment opportunities, increasing their exposure to arbitrary arrest, involuntary return, and movement restrictions. In September 2024, Iranian authorities announced plans to deport up to two million undocumented Afghan migrants by March 2025. By January, over 1.2 million had been expelled, with many facing food insecurity and a lack of livelihood opportunities, among many other limitations, upon their return to Afghanistan.

These developments have strained Iran's resources and heightened tensions within host communities regarding the limited services available, such as healthcare facilities, and inadequate livelihood opportunities.

(UNHCR 09/03/2025, UNHCR accessed 13/03/2025, Clingendael 11/03/2025, NRC 22/01/2025, KabulNow 17/01/2025)

In 2025, Iran still hosts one of the world's largest Afghan refugee populations, with approximately 750,000 registered and an estimated 2.6 million undocumented Afghans residing in the country. 96% live in urban areas, while the remaining 4% reside in refugee settlements. Since the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, over one million Afghans have sought refuge in Iran.

The Iranian Government has implemented policies to provide Amayesh cards to registered refugees, granting them conditional freedom of movement, temporary work permits, and access to national education and healthcare systems. That said, the influx of new arrivals has complicated the card renewal process.

Undocumented Afghans face significant challenges, including limited access to medical services, education, and employment opportunities, increasing their exposure to arbitrary arrest, involuntary return, and movement restrictions. In September 2024, Iranian authorities announced plans to deport up to two million undocumented Afghan migrants by March 2025. By January, over 1.2 million had been expelled, with many facing food insecurity and a lack of livelihood opportunities, among many other limitations, upon their return to Afghanistan.

These developments have strained Iran's resources and heightened tensions within host communities regarding the limited services available, such as healthcare facilities, and inadequate livelihood opportunities.

(UNHCR 09/03/2025, UNHCR accessed 13/03/2025, Clingendael 11/03/2025, NRC 22/01/2025, KabulNow 17/01/2025)

Latest updates on country situation

20 January 2026

Mass protests that erupted on 28 December 2025 have compounded the humanitarian situation in Iran, marked by acute protection risks, collapsing health access, and deepening livelihood strains. Since 8 January 2026, a nationwide internet blackout has prevented the independent verification of casualties and restricted access to emergency services. Violent state crackdown has killed over 3,300 people, with thousands arrested, although exact figures remain unconfirmed. Hospitals across Tehran and Ilam cities are overwhelmed with patients suffering from gunshot and pellet wounds. Medical staff report treatment capacity shortages and security force raids on hospital wards disrupting emergency care. The scale of needs remains unknown given significant information gaps. The internet blackout has also amplified economic hardship for small businesses relying on social media and internet-dependent applications, leaving many unable to work. Prolonged uncertainty over internet restoration is fuelling fears of nationwide job losses, wage delays, and deepened poverty amid hyperinflation. (Reuters 20/01/2026, Iran International 19/01/2026, The Guardian 13/01/2026)

11 November 2025

Iran is facing a severe drought crisis, with water reservoirs supplying Tehran (with a population of ten million) dropping to 8–11% of capacity, raising fears that the city could run out of safe drinking water within weeks. By 8 November 2025, authorities were planning intermittent water cuts, likely forcing low-income households to rely on unsafe water sources. Continued drought and water scarcity are causing significant health risks. Power outages resulting from water shortages can affect medical facilities, causing medicine and vaccine refrigeration issues and aggravating healthcare disruptions. The water shortages disproportionally affect women, who are traditionally tasked to handle childcare, elder care, cooking, and hygiene. They must manage daily water needs during long outages, queue at water tankers, and handle rising costs, which can lead to mental health issues. The intersection of water shortages, economic inflation, and drought-triggered disruptions is deepening needs, increasing social unrest risks and potentially driving displacement. (BBC 10/11/2025,
France 24 08/11/2025, WNCRI 12/10/2025)

20 May 2025

Since 20 March 2025, more than 242,800 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran following the Iranian Government’s deadline for extending headcount slips. These mass returns are occurring amid an already deteriorating humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, where returnees face critical challenges upon arrival. In April alone, more than 251,000 Afghans returned from Pakistan and Iran, including more than 96,000 deported. Most lack adequate shelter, income, access to food, clean water, and healthcare. By May 2024, almost 87% of returnee households required housing assistance, 80% needed financial support, and 71% lacked sufficient food. New arrivals are likely to encounter similar hardships. Many families live in informal camps or overcrowded shelters with limited services. The healthcare system faces challenges, and access to education, especially for returnee children and women, is limited. Employment opportunities are scarce, especially for those without documentation, aggravated by the economic crisis. (UNHCR 13/05/2025, UNHCR 29/04/2025, UNHCR 28/05/2024)

03 April 2023

The situation for Afghan refugees in Iran is becoming increasingly difficult. Since January 2023, over 250,000 refugees returned to Afghanistan from Iran, at least half of them facing some form of coercion. Displaced Afghan people face protection risks, including family separation, violence, and persecution. The situation is particularly unpredictable for undocumented people, who have limited access to services. The process of renewing documentation for refugees has also become more complicated, putting documented refugees at risk of becoming undocumented. Access to education has been impeded by the lack of documentation, affordability, and child labour. The situation is compounded by the political and economic situation in Iran, where social unrest and inflation (64% in March 2023) are making it difficult for refugees to meet their basic needs. Limited livelihood opportunities and restricted access to employment have lowered purchasing power and increased protection risks from negative coping strategies. Afghan refugees in Iran face discrimination and growing resentment caused by economic pressure and perceived competition for jobs. Despite Iran's history of being inclusive to refugees, recent reports show the mistreatment towards Afghan refugees by both government officials and civilians, including physical abuse and wrongful detention. (IOM 19/04/2023, UNHCR 09/03/2023, EU 11/01/2023, The Khaama Press 27/03/2023, Iran International 02/04/2023)

current crises
in Iran


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

IRN004 - Displacement from Afghanistan

Last updated 31/01/2026


Drivers

International Displacement

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

3.9 High

Access constraints

4.0

Active risks

Active
High
Date
11-09-2025
Country
Iran

Rising water scarcity in Iran leads to a deterioration in health, food security, and livelihood needs

Risk type
Marked deterioration in an existing crisis

Analysis products
on Iran

10 February 2026

Anticipating Possible US Strikes on Iran

On 6 February, US and Iranian negotiators met in Muscat against the backdrop of potential military confrontation. In recent weeks, the US has been positioning more offensive and defensive military assets into the region than during the June 2025 12-Day War, creating conditions for what Trump dubbed a ‘decisive’ attack against Iran, while Tehran and its regional allies have pledged a ‘painful response’ to any attack, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warning of a possible confrontation: “this time it will be a regional war.”

 

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Iran: Earthquake in Kermanshah

14 November 2017

Iran: Earthquake in Kermanshah

DOCUMENT / PDF / 525 KB

On the evening of 12 November, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kermanshah province with widespread damage reported across the province. Sar pol-e Zahab and Qasr-e Shirin are reported hardest hit. Early estimates indicate that over 400 lives have been lost and over 6,600 people were injured. Reports indicate that an estimated 70,000 people are in need of emergency shelter.

Natural hazards
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