The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to:
• ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed;
• gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth;
• respond to specific requests for risk reports.
All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Several earthquakes struck Central Sulawesi province from 28–29 September. The strongest had a magnitude of 7.5 and triggered a tsunami that hit land at a speed of 800km per hour with waves of up to 6m. Land liquefaction caused by the earthquake also had serious humanitarian consequences as the fate of two villages with approximately 5,000 residents remains uncertain. At least 74,000 people have been displaced and 2,010 people have died, and these numbers continue to rise. At least 616,000 people have been affected.
Several earthquakes struck Central Sulawesi province from 28–29 September. The strongest earthquake had a magnitude of 7.5 and triggered a tsunami that hit land at a speed of 800 kph with waves of up to 6m. Around 42,000 people have been displaced and 1,200 people killed, with these numbers expected to continue rising rapidly. At least, 300,000 people were exposed to category 5-8 shaking, while up to 1.5 million people who live in the area may be affected.
On 5 August, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck the island of Lombok in Indonesia, with its epicentre located inland in North Lombok. The area had already been impacted by a 6.4 magnitude earthquake on 29 July, with its epicentre in East Lombok. On 9 August, the island was again hit by a 6.2 magnitude earthquake, creating panic among the population and further hindering the rescue efforts. The three earthquakes were followed by a number of strong aftershocks causing widespread structural damage to shelter and public infrastructure, injuring some 2,000 people and killing at least 279 people. Data regarding displacement is ongoing but preliminary reports indicate that over 270,168 displaced people are in need of food, water, shelter, and health assistance. At least 64,534 houses have been damaged.
Keterlambatan mulainya musim hujan disebabkan oleh El Nino (ENSO atau, El Niño Southern Oscillation). Curah hujan yang berkurang ini menunda penanaman padi musim panen pertama. Sekitar 25% dari total nasional belum ditanam pada akhir Desember 2015 terutama di Jawa, Sulawesi, dan Indonesia bagian timur.
Diperkirakan 3 juta orang Indonesia hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan di daerahdaerah yang terkena dampak kekeringan antara bulan Oktober dan Desember 2016, 1,2 juta di antaranya bergantung pada curah hujan untuk produksi pangan dan mata pencaharian.
Late onset of the monsoon season caused by El Niño (or ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation) resulted in a late onset of the monsoon season. This reduced rainfall delayed rice planting of the first season harvest. Around 25% of the national total had not been planted by the end of December 2015 predominantly in Java, Sulawesi, and eastern Indonesia.
An estimated 3 million Indonesians live below the poverty line in areas that were severely impacted by drought between October and December 20161 , 1.2 million of whom are reliant on rainfall for their food production and livelihoods.