Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.20 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.70 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.30 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.2.80 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.2.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Humanitarian Access Overview
Honduras and Nicaragua: Hurricane Eta
Widespread insecurity, high levels of violence, and food insecurity have displaced many people inside and across Honduras’ borders. An estimated 190,000 Hondurans are internally displaced due to conflict and violence?
In October 2018, between 7,000 and 10,000 migrants left Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala to form two large caravans and multiple smaller groups travelling by foot towards the United States border. A smaller caravan headed North between 14 and 30 January 2019. Migrants continue to migrate through Mexico to its shared border with the US, facing danger and risk throughout their journey. Migrants are on the move to escape violence and persecution, improve their economic situation, or be reunited with their families. ?
Honduras is part of Central America’s ‘Dry Corridor’ and experiences irregular rainfall and prolonged periods of drought, leading to major crop losses and food insecurity. An El Niño episode is expected to affect Honduras in the first seven months of 2019, exacerbating an already precarious food security and nutrition situation, especially for rural communities. ?
COVID-19 prevention measures and hurricane-related damage have caused significant income and asset losses. As a result, many Hondurans are struggling to cover basic food and health needs. Flooding triggered by hurricanes Eta and Iota has damaged 216,000 hectares of crops and levels of food insecurity are rising.?
ACAPS' team is daily monitoring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Food Security and livelihoods: The arrival of an El Niño episode in the beginning of 2019 lead to below average rains which improved later in the year. Food production and availability for impoverished rural communities relying on agricultural livelihoods was nonetheless constrained by the early below average rains.?
Protection: High levels of gang-violence and other criminal activities drive displacement in the Northern Triangle, where homicide rates are among the highest in the world. In 2019 247,000people were displaced because of violence.?
UPDATE FROM THE MARCH 2020 RISK ANALYSIS
Deteriorating drought conditions in the Dry Corridor lead to 24% of population in severe food insecurity and increased outward migration.
Below-average rainfall in Honduras since March has led to severe drought in seven departments, wildfires, scarcity of potable water in some cities, and below-average crop production?The number of people who are food insecure has surpassed estimations and, as of August 2020, there were 1.65 million people experiencing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) in Honduras. The number of people at the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level rose to 1.3 million people, and to 350,000 at the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) level. Households throughout Honduras are not able to meet their needs without depleting essential livelihood assets and resorting to coping strategies. The main reason for this increase – besides the drought – are the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 contingency measures in Honduras have limited access to markets and cross-border trade. As a result, the country has experienced a loss of employment, low household income in both the formal and informal sectors, and an increase in the cost of the basic food basket. Families dependent on remittances have seen their family support decline. The reserves of locally produced basic grains were depleted before August 2020.?Lockdown measures have also halted outward migration from Honduras.
Read the latest October Risk Analysis here
IMPACT OF COVID-19
The COVID-19 crisis is having a severe impact on food security, particularly in Central America. Basic grains had maintained low and stable prices thanks to the recent harvest season, but the COVID-19 emergency has led to massive purchases and higher prices. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that the number of people experiencing severe food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean could quadruple from the current 3,4 million to 13,7 million in 2020.? It is estimated that in the Dry Corridor around 4,4 million people acutely food-insecure are at greater risk.?A survey by the Honduran government revealed that over 90% of households surveyed do not have reserves to last more than a month; around 3.2 million people need food support. ?
As of 28 July, there are 40,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Honduras. The pandemic is putting a strain on the country's health system, with hospital occupancy rates ranging between 94% to 145%. There is a general lack of medical staff, health supplies, and medicines, and about 40% of medical staff have tested positive to COVID-19. The national health system requires support to guarantee other regular health services, especially in the areas of newborn and maternal health. ?