Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.50 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.70 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.80 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.10 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Guatemala is situated between El Salvador, Honduras and Mexico, and forms part of the Dry Corridor of Central America. Guatemala is experiencing prolonged seasonal dryness in its eastern and western regions, causing crop losses of basic grains (e.g. corn and beans) and resulting in people adopting negative coping strategies such as changing their diets, reducing quantity and quality of their food and quickly depleting their incomes on market purchases to fill gaps, particularly in the western areas, leading to increased Crisis (IPC 3) food security outcomes. From October 2022 to February 2023, an estimated 3.2 million people are at risk of food insecurity, including 1.2 million children and adolescents ?
Violence in Guatemala, and other countries of Central America, creates significant protection issues, especially for women, and poses a major constraint for humanitarian access. Guatemala has experienced increased insecurity since the beginning of 2022. Armed gangs have consolidated their presence in Guatemala city, Mixco, and Villa Nueva, and the Government is militarising the borders to stop the entry of gangs from neighbouring countries.? In Guatemala, around 3.8 million people (more than 20% of the population) are in need of urgent humanitarian aid; over 61% live in poverty; and violence continues to increase, with an average of eight homicides per day. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Protection: A variety of criminal groups involve active and retired members of the security forces, as well as experienced smugglers and human and drug traffickers. Corruption and a weak justice system have led to impunity in 90% of murder cases ?
Food Security: Until December 2022, the departments of Alta Verapaz, Chiquimula, Izabal, and Zacapa and some areas of Huehuetenango are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity. The rest of the country are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity levels, meaning households have minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures . ?
- There is limited information on the number of displaced, their location and their needs. Also, there is uncertainty about the exact number of people on the move in the region. Figures are from government sources and only include people asking for asylum or granted refugee status, excluding migrants and asylum seekers in transit. ?
Impact of the rainy season
During the rainy season, 906 incidents were reported across the country, mainly in June (216 incidents) and August (244 incidents). Landslides, floods, strong winds, and overflowing rivers have affected at least 1,489,365 people, and around 1,073 are at risk. ?
From May to 27 October, following damages to homes, 11,903 evacuations were reported, and 687 people are living in temporary shelters. Slight (1,371), moderate (3,073), and severe (175) damages to homes were reported.? The most affected people are rural populations and indigenous communities, as their livelihoods are based on agriculture. ? The most affected departments are Guatemala, Huehuetenango, Petén, Quiché, Sololá, and Suchitepéquez. ?
Heavy rains have led to a decrease in crop yields and the loss of almost 50% of crops, affecting the livelihoods of indigenous and peasant communities.? About 76% of the rural population lives in poverty, and the interruption of agricultural activities may further affect their situation.? Food insecurity is the main sectoral need at risk of being aggravated by the impact of the rainy season. 16.8% of the population across Guatemala is already undernourished, almost half of the population is severely or moderately food-insecure, and at least 49,8% of children suffer from malnutrition. ?