ACAPS' Global Risk Analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. ACAPS analysts conduct daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
For the next six months, ACAPS has identified risks in the following contexts: Burkina Faso, Colombia, Ethiopia, Honduras, India, Libya, Maynmar, Nigeria, and Yemen.
The objective of ACAPS’ Global Risk Analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness, which should improve response.
Since June, above average rainfall in many parts of Ethiopia has encouraged vegetation growth, providing favourable ecological conditions for desert locust breeding. Across 56 woredas (districts), the swarms have developed into hopper bands that are consuming between 8,700 (2) to 1,755,000 (3) metric tons of green vegetation – pastures, cropland, trees – per day. Current response efforts are focused on swarm control and preventative methods, such as aerial sprays. Despite international and national interventions, as of 5 November the infestation is not under control. The presence of locusts in the crop-producing regions of Somali, Amhara, Tigray, Oromia are expected to severely hamper food security and livestock productivity.
ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the contexts where humanitarian action faces the biggest constraints. Our analysts have scored each context on nine variables in order to rank and compare humanitarian access worldwide. Crisis affected populations in about 60 countries are not getting the humanitarian assistance they need due to access constraints. Eight new countries were included in the ranking since the last ACAPS HumanitarianAccess report released in May 2019. Among the indicators, ‘Physical constraints’ and ‘Restrictions and obstruction to services and assistance’ are the most common challenges. This report presents the score boards for all the countries assessed. Narratives are provided only for countries with high, very high, or extreme constraints.
The Horn of Africa (HoA) (including northeast Uganda) is currently experiencing a prolonged drought, largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains (April-July) and long rains (October-December). Prevailing dry conditions across the region have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water in large areas of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. At the regional level, the number of severely food insecure people has increased to approximately 12 million, in large part as a result of the drought. Pre-existing protection, health, WASH, and shelter needs have been also been exacerbated. The humanitarian needs of the region’s growing displaced population are of particular concern.
We looked into nine indicators to rank and compare the humanitarian access levels worldwide. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months. 13 new countries entered the ranking since the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access report released in August 2018. Physical constraints and restriction/obstruction of access to services and assistance are the most common challenges.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Multiple internal conflicts have led to displacement and a significant increase in humanitarian needs across Ethiopia in 2018. There are 2.8 million IDPs in the country, mainly due to insecurity and violence in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNPR) and Oromia border regions, Somali and Oromia border regions and Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia border regions. Ethiopia also hosts over 900,000 refugees from neighbouring countries. After the opening of the Eritrea-Ethiopia border, around 15,000 Eritreans have been registered at the Endabaguna Reception Centre since September 2018. In addition, 220,000 Ethiopians returned from Saudi Arabia since 5 May 2017, with the majority being forced returns. Needs are further exacerbated by protracted drought and episodes of severe flooding. Continuing food insecurity, malnutrition and water shortages, mainly in pastoral areas, as well as the risk of disease outbreaks are the main humanitarian concerns in the country. Humanitarian needs have increased across all sectors in 2018.
Over 100,000 people fleeing ethnic violence have been displaced in Benishangul-Gumuz (mainly in Kamashi Zone) and Oromia regions (mainly East Wollega and West Wollega zones). There are indications that displacement is rising, though the size of the displaced population is not clear. Urgent humanitarian needs are reported, including food, shelter, NFI and health.
Intercommunal conflict in the Somali and Oromia border regions that escalated on 4 August has led to the internal displacement of more than 141,000 people. Shelter and health assistance are among the most urgent needs for the IDPs. The areas most affected by the conflict are Jijiga in Somali region and East Hararghe area in Oromia, where fatalities among the population were reported. With the exception of a reported influx of around 2,000 displaced people into Mekelle Town of Tigray region, there is no other information regarding the impact of the August events on Tigray.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
Around 400,000 people have been newly displaced on both sides of the regional borders of Gedeo (SNNP region) and Guji (Oromia region) zones since 1 June. In total, some 700,000 people have been displaced since a new wave of violence between the Gedeo and Guji communities started on 13 April. Insecurity continues to prevent IDPs from returning to their areas or origin. IDPs are staying in shelters in public buildings and spontaneous IDP sites. Host communities have a limited capacity to absorb the new arrivals, with high levels of food insecurity and acute malnutrition already affecting some of the local population. Needs identified include shelter/NFIs, food, WASH, and healthcare.
Following security operations in Moyale, Ethiopia, some 10,000 people have been displaced to Moyale in Marsabit county, Kenya, since 10 March. The displaced population is currently staying in makeshift camps around Moyale. 80% of the displaced people are women and children, including 600 pregnant women and 1,500 children under five. Multisectoral assistance is urgently needed.
Food security remains a major humanitarian concern in 2018 in multiple contexts. ACAPS highlights in this report five of the worst affected countries, where large populations are food insecure, and where households and areas are either already in Catastrophe or Famine levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5), or are at risk of deteriorating into this situation.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
Our methodology uses 9 indicators grouped in 3 categories:
- Access of humanitarian actors to affected population
- Access of people in need to humanitarian aid
- Security and physical constraints
Each category is measured through proxy indicators, such as violence against personnel, denial of needs, or active hostilities.
Data is collected at the country level and may therefore not show disparities between sub-regions.
A drought that began in October 2016 has been ongoing in Ethiopia, leading to high levels of food insecurity and malnutrition. Somali region is the most affected, where 1.7% of the population are affected by SAM. The Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region (SNNPR), and southern Oromia are also affected. Within the Somali region, the most severely affected areas are Dollo, Korahe, Afder, and Jarar Zones. At least 9.5 million people need food assistance across the country.. As of June, the worst affected households are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity outcomes. The drought has resulted in significant livestock losses, greatly reduced access to food, and has driven large-scale displacement. The nutritional situation has also been deteriorating rapidly with a caseload of over 376,000 children suffering from SAM - 97,000 of whom are in the Somali region.
The Fall Armyworms infestation worsened significantly in June in Ethiopia, with 145,000 hectares of land affected – compared to 53,000 hectares at the end of May. The infestation, which affected at least 16 other African countries and millions of people since late 2016, has spread to at least six states out of 11 in Ethiopia, and is likely to spread further. Three to four million hectares of maize crops are expected to be affected at this rate. The Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ State (SNNPS) is the most affected by livelihoods loss, with about 100,000 people (or 20,000 households) affected.
Outbreaks of Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, have been reported in DRC, Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, Swaziland, Ghana and Kenya. Regionally, around 330,000 hectares of staple crops, especially maize, have been affected. The remaining southern African mainland countries remain at high risk. The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established. The damages caused by the infestation depend on the stage at which the pest attacked the plant. Crops that were infested during the early stages of crop development, in late December, had to be replanted, while those infested later in their growth seem to have recovered without intervention.
Update: The further spread of Fall Armyworm was observed in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe in March. Damage from existing outbreaks was also sustained in Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia. While further outbreaks are expected only in northern Tanzania in the coming months, all countries are advised to continue monitoring diligently and to apply appropriate preventative measures. Although the Fall Armyworm season is expected to end in June, long-term impacts are expected for affected countries, and neighbouring countries should also remain diligent.
More than 173,500 refugees and migrants have reached Italy so far in 2016, around 29,000 more than in the same period last year. While the vast majority still use Libya as the departure point to Europe, more are using Egypt and Algeria. The nationality of arrivals is evolving, with fewer Eritreans and more Egyptians.
Protection is a primary concern. The estimated number of deaths on the Central Mediterranean route has grown to over 4,200 people this year, compared to less than 2,900 at the same point in 2015. Many people die on the journey over land to north Africa, but this number is not known. Migrants and refugees also face detention, sexual exploitation, and forced labour. The number of unaccompanied minors arriving in Italy is growing.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.