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Crisis Severity0 Very lowVery high 5
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Impact0 Very lowVery high 5
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Humanitarian Conditions0 Very lowVery high 5
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Complexity0 Very lowVery high 5
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Access ConstraintsNo constraintsExtreme constraints
Key figures
Special Reports
07/02/2023
Special Reports
04/11/2022
Special Reports
17/10/2022
Special Reports
26/01/2022
Special Reports
17/11/2021
Special Reports
04/11/2021
Overview
02/02/2023
More than 28 million people in Ethiopia are in need of humanitarian assistance as a result of internal conflict, displacement, and recurrent natural hazards, primarily floods and drought. As at October 2022, an estimated 4.7 million people were displaced internally as a result of conflict (main driver of displacement in the country) and drought. Additional 2 million people are IDP returnees. The country also hosts more than 882,000 refugees from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan. Most of them have been living in camp settings in Benishangul Gumuz, Gambela, and Somali regions and in the capital city Addis Ababa. ?
Several consecutive years of drought and a record fourth consecutive below-average rainfall in southern and southeastern Ethiopia have disrupted the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of farmers and herders, resulted in the death of livestock, and led to a worsening food security situation. People in southern and southeastern pastoral areas are expected to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity, here drought conditions are forecasted to persist through at least mid-2023 due to a failed fifth consecutive poor rainfall season in late 2022. ?
The resumption of fighting in northern Ethiopia on 24 August 2022, made security in the area highly volatile with airstrikes reported frequently, insecurity recorded along the Tigray-Eritrea boarder, damage on infrastructure, death, and displacement. The signing of a peace deal on 02 November 2022, brought a ceasefire on the 2-year conflict and slow restoration of services like humanitarian access, banking, and telecommunication in Tigray. ?
Conflict in other regions, such as Benishangul Gumuz (particularly Metekel and Kemashi zones) and Oromia (including Wellega and Guji zones), continues to affect people’s freedom of movement and livelihood activities. The situation has resulted in displacement and subsequent humanitarian needs. The needs of IDPs have largely remained unmet because of the volatile security situation and major humanitarian access constraints. ?
INFORM ranks Ethiopia’s risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster as very high at 7.3/10. The lack of coping capacity stands at 6.7/10 and vulnerability at 7.1/10. ?
Latest Developments
17/03/2023
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Humanitarian Access
17/03/2023
extreme constraints
This report covers the humanitarian access situation in Ethiopia for the period July–October 2022, meaning the following narrative does not consider the latest changes in context and political developments. On 2 November, the Ethiopian Government and Tigray People’s Liberation Front signed an agreement on the cessation of hostilities. The two parties committed to allowing for improved humanitarian access in Tigray. As a result, a limited number of humanitarian organisations have been able to resume aid deliveries into the region. ?
Humanitarian access in northern Ethiopia deteriorated during the reporting period (July–October 2022), primarily as a result of the resumption of fighting between the Federal Government of Ethiopia and Tigrayan forces in late August 2022. The conflict largely constrained access to Tigray, with no aid entering the region from mid-August to the end of October. Although aid would normally reach Tigray through convoys, humanitarian flights were also used for aid provision and staff rotation. Starting late August, however, fighting suspended UNHAS flights, with some exceptions in October. Air strikes affecting residential areas and education facilities also prevented people’s access to services.
Between June–October, conflict significantly affected drought response and other humanitarian operations in Oromia region. In western Oromia, heightened insecurity suspended life-saving assistance and aid delivery. In southern Oromia, insecurity, movement restrictions (including road blockages), and damage to public infrastructure restricted people’s access to services and aid and humanitarians’ access to people in need.
A lack of documentation limited access to services for some groups. As at the end of June, unaccompanied and separated children in Tigray acting as heads of their households or left alone were having difficulty accessing aid and assistance since they often lacked ‘beneficiary cards’ normally assigned to parents or caregivers. Across the country, refugees with no documentation were also unable to access any services, and their children had no access to education.
Insecurity and the highly volatile environment continued to put aid workers’ safety and security at risk: between June–November, two aid workers were killed, two were injured, and two were kidnapped in Ethiopia. There were reports of the looting of 12 fuel tankers from a humanitarian organisation on 24 August in Tigray, impeding the distribution of food, fertiliser, medicine, and other emergency supplies.
Limitations on fuel transportation into Tigray remained significant, limiting distributions to affected populations. Between 1 April and 3 August, about 1.8 million litres of fuel entered the region, but around two million litres were needed monthly to sustain humanitarian operations, including humanitarian convoys arriving at and leaving Tigray. Trucks were only allowed to carry enough fuel for a return trip; authorities confiscated any additional fuel as undeclared goods. From August–October, heavy rains and floods in the country, including Afar, Amhara, Gambela, Oromia, Tigray, and Somali regions, also prevented humanitarians from accessing people in need.
For more information, you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – December 2022.
Key Priorities
03/08/2022
Food: food remains a priority need across the country, particularly in northern Ethiopia, but access constraints have limited the understanding of the severity of the situation. There has been no IPC assessment conducted in the country since June 2021, making it difficult to estimate food insecurity levels. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food insecurity is highly likely in parts of Afar, Amhara, and Tigray. Recent food distributions in northern Ethiopia have likely improved food security for those who can access distribution points. In drought-affected areas, more than 7.2 million people need food assistance. ?
WASH: over 4.4 million people in drought-affected areas need water, with the worst-affected areas located in Oromia, SNNP, and Somali regions. Conflict and natural disasters have also damaged WASH facilities, resulting in limited access to WASH services. ?
Health: health needs remain a priority given the impact of conflict and drought. People in need of healthcare have not had access to health services because of major access constraints and the destruction of health infrastructure.?
Insecurity in Benishangul Gumuz region
03/08/2022
Disagreements over land rights, resources, and power between different ethnic groups have been a major driver of conflict in the region, including in Metekel and Kemashi zones. Violence and insecurity have resulted in increased displacement, insecurity, civilian casualties, and access constraints for humanitarian organisations. In January 2021, conflict intensified in Metekel zone and eventually spread to Asosa and Kemashi zones and Mao Komo Special woreda. IDP figures are difficult to verify because of access constraints. IDP needs include food, water, health, emergency shelter, and NFIs, as well as critical nutrition interventions. Insecurity also affects the 70,000 refugees from Sudan and South Sudan living in the region. It limits people’s movement and access to public services, which have been suspended in many rural areas. Conflict has also damaged or destroyed an unknown number of health centres, schools, and infrastructure.?
INSECURITY IN OROMIA REGION
03/08/2022
Oromia experiences protracted conflict, which has led to mass displacement and migration, property destruction, the loss of livelihoods and assets, and strained access to basic services resulting from damages to public facilities during conflict. There is often conflicting information from local, zonal, regional, and federal sources on the severity of needs, especially with regard to food insecurity. It is also difficult to distinguish the extent to which needs are driven by conflict rather than drought or the restriction of services. There are conflict hotspots in the west and southern parts of the region (Wellega and West Guji zones) linked with the Oromo Liberation Army and counter-insurgency campaigns by the Federal Government, as well as intercommunal conflict in eastern Oromia (East and West Hararge). Insecurity led to the deterioration of access in 2021 and continues to be a major barrier to providing humanitarian assistance. ?
UPDATE FROM THE FEBRUARY 2022 RISK ANALYSIS
20/10/2022
MEDIUM RISK LEVEL
Resource-based clashes because of continuing drought increase insecurity and conflict displacement in Oromia and Somali regions
The risk has materialised; the severity of drought has resulted in the further unavailability of resources like water, food, and land and the aggravation of intercommunal conflicts in Oromia and Somali regions. The rainy season between March–May 2022 failed, making it the fourth consecutive failed rainy season?. Below-average rains are also expected for the October–November rainy season ?. By the end of August, drought had affected more than 24 million people in Ethiopia, mostly in Oromia and Somali regions?. This figure is a significant increase from the 6.8 million drought-affected people in December 2021, also mostly in Oromia and Somali?. Between January–June 2022, intercommunal conflicts increased over resources in Oromia, mostly in Guji and West Guji zones. Drought-induced needs likely contributed to the increase. Sporadic intercommunal clashes have also been recorded across the region?. Conflict, followed by drought, remains the main cause of displacement in both regions, but the link between conflict events and the effect of drought- and resource-based clashes is not always clear?. Humanitarian access to the two regions has been extremely restricted because of increased insecurity, affecting drought-response operations?.
Read the February 2022 Risk Analysis here.
