DRC

ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the contexts where humanitarian action faces the biggest constraints. Our analysts have scored each context on nine variables in order to rank and compare humanitarian access worldwide. Crisis affected populations in about 60 countries are not getting the humanitarian assistance they need due to access constraints. Eight new countries were included in the ranking since the last ACAPS HumanitarianAccess report released in May 2019. Among the indicators, ‘Physical constraints’ and ‘Restrictions and obstruction to services and assistance’ are the most common challenges. This report presents the score boards for all the countries assessed. Narratives are provided only for countries with high, very high, or extreme constraints.

The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to:

• ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed;
• gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth;
• respond to specific requests for risk reports.

All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.

Since 1 May, attacks and clashes between armed groups and Congolese security forces triggered the displacement of more than 12,000 people in Nord Kivu and Ituri provinces in eastern DRC. Although exact numbers and humanitarian needs of newly displaced people are unknown, they add to more than 100,000 people who were displaced in Nord Kivu in April. Food, WASH, health, protection and shelter are reported as imminent needs of displaced people, who currently rely on host communities to meet their most basic needs.

Over 257,800 people have returned from northeastern Angola to the greater Kasai region of DRC since 1 October. During displacement, DRC nationals have experienced violence and human rights abuses, and many have arrived with almost nothing. Food, medical, protection and shelter interventions are required, as the host communities in greater Kasai were themselves already facing severe food insecurity and a cholera outbreak.

As of 18 August, 91 cases of Ebola and 50 deaths (CFR 54.9%) have been reported in Ituri and Nord Kivu provinces of DRC. Conflict and insecurity in both areas are aggravating the crisis and increasing the risk the disease will spread further. Conflict is hampering humanitarian access of health workers to the local population, as well as driving displacement across the border to Uganda. Around 99,400 refugees from DRC have arrived in Uganda since January 2018, and the number of new refugees in Uganda from the two Ebola-affected provinces rose in July to 250 a day from 170 a day. The Ebola outbreak itself is also a cause for cross-border migration, as people try to leave the affected areas.

On 1 August, a new Ebola Virus outbreak was declared in Mabalako health zone, Beni territory, Nord Kivu, when four samples collected from patients suffering from an ‘unknown disease’ tested positive for the virus. So far, 33 cases including 20 deaths (CFR: 60.6%) have been reported, though the latest official press release states 26 cases and 20 deaths as of 28 July. The declaration of this outbreak followed detection of a significant cluster of suspected viral haemorrhagic fever in July in Nord Kivu. Investigations found that sporadic deaths in May in the affected communities may have been related. A strike affecting the health sector in Nord Kivu is one factor why the detection and response to the virus has been impeded.

Equateur province in DRC has been affected by an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD). The outbreak is believed to have begun in early April and was officially declared on 8 May. Since 3 May, 39 suspected cases have been reported, two of which have been laboratory confirmed. The full scale of the outbreak is still being determined as poor infrastructure and the remote location constrain response to the outbreak.

Our methodology uses 9 indicators grouped in 3 categories:
-    Access of humanitarian actors to affected population
-    Access of people in need to humanitarian aid
-    Security and physical constraints
Each category is measured through proxy indicators, such as violence against personnel, denial of needs, or active hostilities.
Data is collected at the country level and may therefore not show disparities between sub-regions.

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Over 3,360 refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) fled into Zambia between 30 August and 3 October 2017. The refugees have been fleeing inter-ethnic conflicts as well as clashes between government forces and armed militias in Haut-Katanga province. Several of them have reported extreme brutality committed by all parties against civilians. The total number of refugees from Zambia in 2017 is estimated at 60,000. Given the current security situation in the southeast of DRC, flows of refugees across the border are expected to continue. The refugees are reliant on humanitarian assistance. Priority sectors for assistance are emergency shelter, health, and WASH. Other needs include food and relief materials.

Update: Fighting in and around the Kasai regions continues to cause displacement. So far, approximately 1.3 million people have fled violence in eight provinces. Between April and 22 May, over 23,500 people arrived in Angola. By mid-April 2017, at least 400 deaths had been recorded, including many civilians, but the number is likely higher.  Armed clashes began between militia loyal to a local chief, Kamuina Nsapu, and FARDC in Kasai in August 2016. Since then, fighting has occurred between different militia groups in Kasai-Central, Kasai Oriental, Kasai, Lomami, and Sankuru. Violence is also now partly driven by ethnic tensions. 

Outbreaks of Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, have been reported in DRC, Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, Swaziland, Ghana and Kenya. Regionally, around 330,000 hectares of staple crops, especially maize, have been affected. The remaining southern African mainland countries remain at high risk. The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established. The damages caused by the infestation depend on the stage at which the pest attacked the plant. Crops that were infested during the early stages of crop development, in late December, had to be replanted, while those infested later in their growth seem to have recovered without intervention.

Update: The further spread of Fall Armyworm was observed in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe in March. Damage from existing outbreaks was also sustained in Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia. While further outbreaks are expected only in northern Tanzania in the coming months, all countries are advised to continue monitoring diligently and to apply appropriate preventative measures. Although the Fall Armyworm season is expected to end in June, long-term impacts are expected for affected countries, and neighbouring countries should also remain diligent.