Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
A complex emergency has persisted in DRC for more than 20 years. Population displacement is frequent and repeated, and mostly driven by armed clashes and intercommunal violence between foreign, self-defence, and other armed groups. More than five million people are internally displaced. The situation in the eastern provinces remains particularly volatile: humanitarian needs are high, as displaced and local populations are faced with violence, food insecurity, floods, disease outbreaks, and the secondary effects of COVID-19 restrictions. Over 1 million refugees from DRC live in African host countries as at 30 September. DRC hosted about 522,000 refugees (mainly from Rwanda, Central African Republic, Congo, and Angola) as at 30 September.?Since mid-December 2020, 92,000 refugees fleeing violence related to the 27 December elections in CAR have arrived in Bas-Uele, Nord-Ubangi, and Sud-Ubangi provinces. Most of the arrivals are located in villages close to the river border, where access is a challenge and where host communities were already struggling to meet their own needs. ?
Over 7,900 protection incidents were reported across DRC in 2020, a 21% increase from 2019 attributable to the deteriorating security situation in conflict-affected areas. 93% of recorded violations occurred in Nord-Kivu, Ituri, and Sud-Kivu. Reported extrajudicial killings by armed groups increased dramatically, from 1,029 in 2019 to 2,487 in 2020. ?
The food crisis in DRC is likely to worsen in the months to come. From January–June 2022, 25.9 million people are estimated in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or above, with 5.4 million people estimated in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 19.6 million people were projected to need food assistance for the January–June 2021 period. This deterioration is explained by poor harvests, displacement caused by waves of violence, and crops’ diseases.?
24/05/2023: A spike in gender-based violence was reported in North Kivu, with a 37% increase in cases during the first quarter of 2023. Sexual violence has increased significantly in IDP sites hosting people displaced by violence involving various armed groups and the Congolese army. Since March 2022, 1.2 million people have been displaced in North Kivu, with nearly 600,000 sheltering in IDP sites. They are living in overcrowded sites with a lack of access to resources, including a critical food shortage. Women and children are most affected by gender-based violence, often attacked while searching for firewood, food, and safe drinking water. In the last two weeks of April, health providers treated nearly 700 victims across six IDP sites – a rate of 48 cases per day, with the majority of incidents occurring within 48 hours of the victim seeking treatment. These figures represent reported cases, and numbers are likely higher.?
09/05/2023: As at 7 May 2023, at least 400 people had died as a result of floods and landslides following heavy rains on 2–4 May in Kalehe territory (South Kivu). Around 3,000 houses were damaged or destroyed. The most urgent needs for those affected include medical care, food, and shelter assistance. ?
Very high constraints
Access constraints have remained very high because of armed group activities in the east of the country and hostility among the population towards certain humanitarian organisations. New areas, particularly in Rutshuru territory, have come under the control of armed groups in a context where clashes with the Congolese army are recurrent, making humanitarian operations more challenging. In Rutshuru territory, clashes between defence and security forces and the armed group March 23 Movement often trap civilians, who are unable to flee because of the intensity of the fighting. Insecurity linked to attacks, robberies, intimidation, and acts of violence by non-state armed and criminal groups has continued to suspend many humanitarian activities in Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tanganyika provinces. In North Kivu, demonstrations for the withdrawal of the MONUSCO in DRC have forced several organisations to temporarily suspend their activities. The enforcement by the authorities of a curfew in several cities in eastern DRC continues to restrict people’s movement. Authorities have suspended road traffic in areas such as the Komanda-Lolwa road (Ituri) because of insecurity, considerably reducing access to people in need. Insecurity also continues to affect humanitarian workers. Since June, attacks by non-state armed groups have led to the death of at least one person and the kidnapping of three others. Delays in administrative procedures for obtaining official documents granting administrative, technical, and financial facilities to humanitarian organisations are still reported. In August, the poor condition of the bridge over Lutalika River (North Kivu) delayed the delivery of food aid to more than 100,000 people. During the rainy season (mid-February to June and September–December), road damage from heavy rains made access to certain areas particularly difficult. In September, the deterioration of the road on the Rutshuru-Karambi-Kitagoma route hampered access to more than 30,000 displaced people. Logistical constraints, linked in particular to the shortage of fuel, have limited humanitarian flights over the past months.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – December 2022.
RiskThe expansion of the areas under the control of the 23 March Movement (M23) in North-Kivu causes increased violence targeting Rwandophone communities, resulting in displacement and protection needs Latest update: 29/03/2023
Health: Displacement often leads to the loss or deterioration of access to health services. Poor WASH infrastructure contributes to the spread and risk of outbreaks of communicable diseases such as measles, cholera, malaria, Ebola, and COVID-19.
Protection: Protection concerns remain high, particularly among IDPs, returnees, refugees, and host communities. Those who commit protection violations often go unpunished and victims have limited access to support structures. Reported GBV incidents increased by 86% between January–September 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. This increase can likely be attributed to continued violence and displacement and COVID-19-related restrictions, as well as increased public awareness and operational capacity which have allowed for increased reporting of GBV cases.
Food security: Conflict and displacement are the main drivers of food insecurity. Seasonal floods, along with crop and animal diseases, further affect livelihoods. Poor road infrastructure limits access to markets. ?
UPDATE FROM THE FEBRUARY 2022 RISK ANALYSIS
MEDIUM RISK LEVEL
The resurgence of the 23 March Movement (M23) and intensification of conflict lead to displacement and further deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Nord-Kivu
The risk that we identified in March has materialised. The humanitarian situation in the territories of Rutshuru and Nyiragongo (Nord-Kivu) has deteriorated since March 2022 because of the resurgence of the M23. Continued clashes between the armed group and the Congolese army have displaced at least 186,000 people within Nord-Kivu province, while an estimated 58,000 people have taken refuge in neighbouring Uganda since January 2022?. More than 210,000 people need humanitarian assistance, mainly in Rutshuru and Nyiragongo territories, as a result of this crisis?.
On 13 June, the M23 took control of the city of Bunagana, hampering economic activities. Abuses against civilians were reported?. The Government made the withdrawal of the M23 from the city of Bunagana a prerequisite for any negotiations with the armed group?. The violence also had political implications given Rwanda’s alleged support of the M23. This support led to violent protests against Rwanda in several provinces of the Republic of Congo?. Demonstrators targeted people suspected of being of Rwandan origin and looted or destroyed their property. The tensions eased after a meeting between the presidents of the two countries?.
In July, violent demonstrations accusing MONUSCO of ineffectiveness in the fight against armed groups took place in Goma, Butembo (Nord-Kivu), and Uvira (South Kivu), killing civilians and soldiers?.
Read the February 2022 Risk Analysis here.