• Crisis Severity ?
     
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    1.7
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
     
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    2.7
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    2.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Overview

28/05/2019

Violence linked to militant and criminal groups has spiked in the Tibesti region of northern Chad since the end of 2018. A number of significant confrontations have taken place in recent months between government troops and non-state armed groups, notably the Conseil de commandement militaire pour le salut de la République/ Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR), as well as between rival groups of miners in the area. ? The violence and insecurity have led to an increase in humanitarian needs, particularly for food and livelihood support.  ? Tibesti is currently classified at the Crisis (IPC-3) level of food insecurity, indicating a prevalence of food insecurity that is worse than the national average. ? 

Latest Developments

28/05/2019

No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.

Increased violence between government forces and non-state armed groups in Tibesti leads to worsening of food and protection needs

Latest update: 21/06/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

Violent conflict has spiked in Tibesti since late 2018, involving a wide variety of different groups including the Chadian military, opposition factions such as the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR) and Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) which seek to overthrow the government, as well as local self-defense militias. In January 2019, several dozen people were killed following clashes in a gold mining area which pitted CCMSR soldiers against Sudanese militias aligned with the Chadian government.? Approximately one month later in February, a large group of UFR fighters entered northern Chad from their base in Libya, clashing with government troops. Fighting moved towards N’Djamena until French military jets intervened at the request of the Chadian government?   Separately, tensions between the Chadian government and self-defense militias have continued to escalate near Miski and have occasionally turned violent over local grievances such as the distribution of gold mining revenues and border disputes, further contributing to the unstable situation.?

Considering events that have unfolded in recent months, there appears to be a growing risk the security situation in Tibesti and other areas of northern Chad will deteriorate further. Government forces are currently stationed outside Miski and are prepared to launch another offensive to clear the area of anti-government forces and self-defense militia groups ? Unaddressed local grievances and Chad’s ongoing economic crisis will likely increase support for non-state armed groups in the north,  possibly leading to an escalation of attacks against the military.? There is also an increasing risk that Chadian opposition groups, which have historically maintained a presence in neighbouring countries, will be able to increase the frequency of their cross-border operations as a result of ongoing political crises and recent security deterioration in Libya and Sudan.

IMPACT

Humanitarian needs are already very high in Tibesti as a result of persistent instability and violence. In December 2018, 18,000 people – approximately half of Tibesti’s population – were reported in need of humanitarian assistance; this number has likely risen in recent months.? If government forces were to launch another offensive in the region or if armed groups were to increase the frequency of their attacks this would almost certainly cause a spike in food needs by reducing civilian access to markets, which are the main source of food for most households. Tibesti is already facing Crisis (IPC-3) levels of food insecurity, among the highest of all regions in Chad.? Based on past experience, protection needs will also be of concern, particularly for miners in the region who typically come from other parts of Chad, and are often accused by the government of being criminals or “rebel sympathisers.” A potential escalation of violence can be expected to increase humanitarian access constraints in Tibesti, which is already one of the most remote and hardest to reach areas in the country.

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Information Gaps and Needs

28/05/2019

Though hostilities are reported to continue, very little precise information is available and it has not been possible to assign the Tibesti Conflict a score in the GCSI.