Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.10 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.80 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.3.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
The Boko Haram crisis began in 2009 in Nigeria and a few years later spread to neighboring Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Ongoing violence is caused by both Boko Haram attacks and the counter-insurgency operations, undertaken by Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF). The MNJTF was created in 1998 and reactivated in 2012. A MNJTF regional counter-insurgency operation was launched in February 2019.? Among other tasks, the MNJTF is mandated to conduct ‘counter-terrorism’ operations in Lake Chad Basin region.? The regional crisis has caused internal and cross-border displacement, physical destruction, and has exacerbated the food insecurity in the region.
Ten years into the Boko Haram insurgency, violence persists in northeast Nigeria and the Lake Chad region in 2019. Read more about the Boko Haram regional crisis in the ACAPS Humanitarian Perspectives 2019/2020 Report.
01/09/2020: Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) members based in Nigeria carried out an attack on 25 August on Bulgaram Island (Lake Chad, Far North region), killing 14 people. The region is strategically important to ISWAP as an access point for food supplies. Bulgaram Island residents had blocked this access prior to the attack.?
ACAPS' team is daily monitoring the impact of COVID-19. Find more information related to the outbreak here.
Chad Withdraws Troops from MNJTF
16/04/2020: Following an eight-day sustained offensive against Boko Haram in which the Chadian government stated that it killed over 1,000 insurgents, Chad declared it would move out its troops from bases seized by Boko Haram in Nigeria and Niger by 22 April 2020.? This would be regardless of whether Nigeria or Niger sends in their troops to replace Chadian troops in these areas or not. The removal of Chadian troops would increase both insecurity and displacement in border towns where the Multinational Joint Task Force currently has a presence and may allow insurgents take over already liberated towns. International border closures and internal border restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic would decrease refuge options for migrating populations in the Lake Chad basin, who would also lose their access to humanitarian aid, especially in areas where humanitarian actors can only operate with military protection.
07/01/2020: On 4 January 2020, Chad withdrew all of its 1,200 troops from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) instituted by the African Union Peace and Security Council to counter Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin. The Chadian government stated that the mandate period for the participation of Chadian troops in the MNJTF ended in 2019 and the troops withdrawn would be redeployed to Chad’s border with Libya. This development has led to fears and tensions amidst populations living in Boko Haram affected areas, resulting in mass movement of people from border towns like Gajiram to Maiduguri. The people fear that the absence of MNJTF troops in their area would make them vulnerable to attacks by either ISWAP or the Abubakar Shekau led Boko Haram faction. These fears have been heightened by Boko Haram attacks on an Island on Lake Chad bordering Chad and Cameroon which killed over 50 fishermen on 22 December 2019. Boko Haram also renewed attacks on Michika in Adamawa states on 2 January 2020, leading to residents of Baza fleeing to Yola and into the mountains.
The withdrawal of Chadian troops also coincided with the Nigerian government's decision to withdraw military troops from certain areas in northern Nigeria. This is planned to pave way for the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) to take over security and policing of areas accessed and certified ‘safe’. The Northern Governors Forum and other stakeholders have however questioned this decision and advised against troops withdrawal in the states.
The effects of troops withdrawal from both countries poses protection risks to populations in the Lake Chad Basin and is likely to intensify attacks from Boko Haram, ISWAP and other NSAGs in the area.?