Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.80 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.50 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.60 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian constraints.2.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
More than 4.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in Chad, mostly because of chronic poverty, conflict, food insecurity, and malnutrition, particularly in the Sahelian zone in the north.?
Security threats around Lake Chad, most notably from Boko Haram (BH), and military operations to contain them have driven civilians from their homes and disrupted livelihoods. Insecurity has also pushed Nigerian refugees into Chad since 2014, creating a complex displacement crisis across the islands and shores of Lake Chad. Large and protracted refugee populations, mainly from Sudan and CAR, in the south and east of the country also face significant humanitarian needs. ?
Regional instability coupled with a severe economic crisis and erratic rainfall threaten food security in Chad. Some 3.7 million people are projected to be food insecure in the June-August 2019 period. ? A measles outbreak beginning May 2018 continues and has intensified in 2019. Since January 2019, more than 15,000 cases of measles have been reported across the country, with approximately 143 fatalities. ?
25/06: Since the beginning of 2019, more than 20,000 cases of measles have been reported in Chad, with 201 associated fatalities (CFR 1%). The number of new cases has continued to increase in recent weeks, with 67 out of 126 districts affected by the outbreak. Despite large scale efforts to promote vaccination against measles, nearly two-thirds of under five children in Chad remain unvaccinated.?
Violent conflict has spiked in Tibesti since late 2018, involving a wide variety of different groups including the Chadian military, opposition factions such as the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR) and Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) which seek to overthrow the government, as well as local self-defense militias. In January 2019, several dozen people were killed following clashes in a gold mining area which pitted CCMSR soldiers against Sudanese militias aligned with the Chadian government.? Approximately one month later in February, a large group of UFR fighters entered northern Chad from their base in Libya, clashing with government troops. Fighting moved towards N’Djamena until French military jets intervened at the request of the Chadian government? Separately, tensions between the Chadian government and self-defense militias have continued to escalate near Miski and have occasionally turned violent over local grievances such as the distribution of gold mining revenues and border disputes, further contributing to the unstable situation.?
Considering events that have unfolded in recent months, there appears to be a growing risk the security situation in Tibesti and other areas of northern Chad will deteriorate further. Government forces are currently stationed outside Miski and are prepared to launch another offensive to clear the area of anti-government forces and self-defense militia groups ? Unaddressed local grievances and Chad’s ongoing economic crisis will likely increase support for non-state armed groups in the north, possibly leading to an escalation of attacks against the military.? There is also an increasing risk that Chadian opposition groups, which have historically maintained a presence in neighbouring countries, will be able to increase the frequency of their cross-border operations as a result of ongoing political crises and recent security deterioration in Libya and Sudan.
Humanitarian needs are already very high in Tibesti as a result of persistent instability and violence. In December 2018, 18,000 people – approximately half of Tibesti’s population – were reported in need of humanitarian assistance; this number has likely risen in recent months.? If government forces were to launch another offensive in the region or if armed groups were to increase the frequency of their attacks this would almost certainly cause a spike in food needs by reducing civilian access to markets, which are the main source of food for most households. Tibesti is already facing Crisis (IPC-3) levels of food insecurity, among the highest of all regions in Chad.? Based on past experience, protection needs will also be of concern, particularly for miners in the region who typically come from other parts of Chad, and are often accused by the government of being criminals or “rebel sympathisers.” A potential escalation of violence can be expected to increase humanitarian access constraints in Tibesti, which is already one of the most remote and hardest to reach areas in the country.