• Crisis Severity ?
    3.9
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    3.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    4.0
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    3.9
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    3.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 16,213,000 Total population [?]
  • 727,000 People displaced [?]
  • 4,268,000 People in Need [?]
  • 1,094,000 Severe humanitarian conditions - Level 4 [?]

Overview

29/11/2019

More than 4.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in Chad, mostly because of chronic poverty, conflict, food insecurity, and malnutrition, particularly in the Sahelian zone in the north.?

Security threats around Lake Chad, most notably from Boko Haram (BH), and military operations to contain them have driven civilians from their homes and disrupted livelihoods. Insecurity has also pushed Nigerian refugees into Chad since 2014, creating a complex displacement crisis across the islands and shores of Lake Chad. Large and protracted refugee populations, mainly from Sudan and CAR, in the south and east of the country also face significant humanitarian needs. ?

Regional instability coupled with a severe economic crisis has challenged the country, however recent harvests have contributed to the country's food security.?A measles outbreak beginning May 2018 continues and has intensified in 2019. As of November 2019, 25,600 cases were identified in 94% of the country's districts. ?

Latest Developments

27/11/2019

Heavy rainfall since October has continued to cause flooding across several Chadian provinces. It has reportedly affected over 171,000 people including over 80,600 in Mayo-Kebbi Est region along the Logone River, which borders Cameroon. Flooding has reportedly caused extensive damage to homes, bridges, and roads and has led to loss of life, although the number of deaths has yet to be reported. Mayo-Kebbi Est has been recently affected by high rates of cholera spread from neighboring Cameroon. Damage to water infrastructure by flooding may further drive the spread of disease if sanitation measures are not put into place. Food, water, shelter, sanitation and non-food item provision have been cited as priorities. Some communities are in difficult to access areas. Flooding has also been reported since 20 November in Salamat province, which has destroyed cropland and affected 160 households. Overall it is unclear how people may be affected, and how many may have been displaced. ?

Humanitarian Access

31/10/2019

High constraints

The volatile security situation combined with a lack of infrastructure restrict humanitarian access. Humanitarian actors have been targeted by violence, including the deaths of 2 humanitarians, resulting in activities being disrupted and suspended. Sporadic incidents of landmine explosions in the Borkou, Ennedi, and Tibesti regions were also recorded. Organisations face challenges due to the lack of government control in Lac and Tibesti regions, where armed groups maintain control. Lac, Ouddai, Sila, and Tibesti regions are all under a ‘state of emergency’ due to ongoing violence, preventing affected populations from accessing humanitarian assistance. Interference into humanitarian activities also remains a concern and lengthy registration and visa processes continue to impede access.

Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.

Risk

Increased violence between government forces and non-state armed groups in Tibesti leads to worsening of food and protection needs Latest update: 29/11/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

Violent conflict has spiked in Tibesti since late 2018, involving a wide variety of different groups including the Chadian military, opposition factions such as the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR) and Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) which seek to overthrow the government, as well as local self-defense militias. In January 2019, several dozen people were killed following clashes in a gold mining area which pitted CCMSR soldiers against Sudanese militias aligned with the Chadian government.? Approximately one month later in February, a large group of UFR fighters entered northern Chad from their base in Libya, clashing with government troops. Fighting moved towards N’Djamena until French military jets intervened at the request of the Chadian government?   Separately, tensions between the Chadian government and self-defense militias have continued to escalate near Miski and have occasionally turned violent over local grievances such as the distribution of gold mining revenues and border disputes, further contributing to the unstable situation.?

Considering events that have unfolded in recent months, there appears to be a growing risk the security situation in Tibesti and other areas of northern Chad will deteriorate further. Government forces are currently stationed outside Miski and are prepared to launch another offensive to clear the area of anti-government forces and self-defense militia groups ? Unaddressed local grievances and Chad’s ongoing economic crisis will likely increase support for non-state armed groups in the north,  possibly leading to an escalation of attacks against the military.? There is also an increasing risk that Chadian opposition groups, which have historically maintained a presence in neighbouring countries, will be able to increase the frequency of their cross-border operations as a result of ongoing political crises and recent security deterioration in Libya and Sudan.

IMPACT

Humanitarian needs are already very high in Tibesti as a result of persistent instability and violence. In December 2018, 18,000 people – approximately half of Tibesti’s population – were reported in need of humanitarian assistance; this number has likely risen in recent months.? If government forces were to launch another offensive in the region or if armed groups were to increase the frequency of their attacks this would almost certainly cause a spike in food needs by reducing civilian access to markets, which are the main source of food for most households. Tibesti is already facing Crisis (IPC-3) levels of food insecurity, among the highest of all regions in Chad.? Based on past experience, protection needs will also be of concern, particularly for miners in the region who typically come from other parts of Chad, and are often accused by the government of being criminals or “rebel sympathisers.” A potential escalation of violence can be expected to increase humanitarian access constraints in Tibesti, which is already one of the most remote and hardest to reach areas in the country.

Read this risk