Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.10 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.30 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.10 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Violence in CAR continues, despite a February 2019 peace agreement between the government and non-state armed groups.?
The conflict began in 2013 between the Séléka and anti-balaka armed groups in central CAR. Armed conflict has since spread and has destabilised the country, resulting in human rights abuses and targeted killings along communal lines. The conflict has led to mass displacement. Over 738,279 people in CAR, most of them children, were estimated to be internally displaced as at 31 March 2021.?As at 27 April 2021, 370,000 children were internally displaced – the highest number recorded in CAR since 2014.?
On 15 December 2020, a coalition of armed groups launched an offensive to try and derail the 27 December election, generating additional displacements throughout the country. A total of 276,000 people have been internally displaced by this surge in violence since mid-December, including 129,000 who remain displaced as at 27 February.? Food shortages and increased food prices have been reported, as the violence temporarily halted transport along the country’s main supply route between Bangui and Garoua-Boulai (in Cameroon). ?
INFORM measures CAR's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 8.6/10. CAR's vulnerability and lack of coping capacity are of particular concern.?
Around 9,700 people, including more than 3,400 Central African returnees, have fled Sudan to northeastern Central African Republic since clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces began in mid-April. The number of displaced people is likely to increase, as registration is still continuing. Most displaced people are in Am-Dafock village (Vakaga prefecture), living in makeshift shelters with the host community. The most urgent needs of the newly displaced include shelter, food, and WASH services. The disruption of traffic between Sudan and the Central African Republic as a result of insecurity along the border area has caused an increase in the prices of certain basic products, particularly in the towns of Birao (Vakaga prefecture) and Ndélé (Bamingui-Bangoran). Sugar and millet prices have doubled in these areas, which rely heavily on Sudan for supplies. A deterioration in humanitarian access is also expected during the rainy season (April–October), as Am-Dafock is a flood-prone area.?
VERY High constraints
Humanitarian access has deteriorated as a result of renewed non-state armed group activity, particularly in areas where defence and security forces have limited presence. A fuel shortage led to the disruption of military operations in June, which armed groups took advantage of to take control of several localities. They also took control of some mining sites, attacked civilians, and imposed illegal taxes. When the fuel situation improved in July, the reinforcement of military presence in the mining sites of Mambéré-Kadéï and Ouham prefectures caused numerous clashes with non-state armed groups, restricting the movement of civilians. Following attacks or clashes, people would flee into the bushes, reducing their ability to access assistance and services.
Armed group activity keeps humanitarian movements costly, long, and often dangerous. Attacks against people, goods, and community infrastructure represent most violent incidents affecting humanitarians. In the capital city of Bangui, administrative constraints related to humanitarian vehicles have considerably increased in recent months, delaying humanitarian operations. Just in the past semester, authorities have immobilised or confiscated the vehicles of several humanitarian organisations. Humanitarian flights, when possible, are often the safest way to transport aid, even in areas where roads are passable for trucks.
Since June, non-state armed groups have kidnapped at least three humanitarian staff and injured one other. Armed groups often loot aid distribution sites, depriving hundreds of people of assistance. These attacks against humanitarian organisations cause recurrent but temporary suspensions of activity.
Fuel shortages resulting from global supply chain disruptions suspend or reduce the activities of humanitarian organisations. Between June–July, these shortages reduced the number of humanitarian flights per day by more than half and decreased the quantity of food distributed to populations in need.
The presence of IEDs has made the movement of people in need and humanitarians more difficult, particularly in the west of the country. Flooding during the rainy season (April–September) damaged roads and bridges and made many areas inaccessible.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – December 2022.
Nearly 2.29 million people (47% of the total population analysed) are projected to face severe food insecurity during the lean season between April–August 2021. Around 633,000 people are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity, while approximately 1.66 million people are expected to be in a Crisis situation (IPC Phase 3). Compared to September 2020–April 2021 forecasts expecting 1.93 million people to face a Crisis or Emergency situation, the food situation will be deteriorating slightly in April–August 2021. The main driver of increased levels of food insecurity is the surge in violence in the context of the December 2020 presidential and legislative elections. The second wave of COVID-19 and related containment measures continue to affect households’ livelihoods, causing loss of jobs and high prices in the markets and increasing households’ vulnerability to food insecurity. The 2020 harvests were disrupted by the deterioration of the security situation, leading to limited production and a low level of stocks, which affect populations heavily dependent on their own production.?
Update form the October 2020 Global Risk Analysis
Loss of state authority following contested elections leads to an increase in armed group activity and in the severity of humanitarian needs
On 15 December 2020, six armed groups formed the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) and launched an offensive to try to derail the electoral process in the lead-up to the 27 December elections.? The formation and activity of this coalition generated increased displacement and humanitarian needs and affected the delivery of goods. The election was held as scheduled; however, voting did not occur in 29 of CAR’s 71 sub-prefectures and access to voting sites in six other sub-prefectures was limited. The results were confirmed on 18 January by the constitutional court and Faustin-Archange Touadéra was reelected as president.?
A surge in violence continued after the election and led to 276,000 new IDPs, of whom 129,000 are still displaced as armed group activity prevents them from returning. 112,000 refugees have also fled to DRC, Chad, Cameroon, and Republic of Congo. Newly displaced people are in need of protection (sexual and gender-based violence protection, child protection, and official documentation), as well as shelter, WASH, food, non-food items, and healthcare, depending on the resources available at host locations.?
The CPC also imposed a blockade on CAR’s main supply route between Garoua-Boulaï (Cameroon) and Bangui, which 80% of the country’s imports transit through. At one point, up to 1,600 trucks - including 500 with humanitarian supplies - were blocked at the border.? The first escorted convoys reached Bangui on 8 and 16 February, signaling the reopening of the route.? The blockade led to an increase in food prices and food shortages.? The risk outlined in October 2020 materialised, but with slightly different developments and triggers than those that ACAPS had initially identified.
Read the full latest Global Risk Analysis here.
Protection: People who are affected by violence – particularly IDPs and returnees – are in need of protection assistance. Needs include psychosocial support, child protection, GBV, and access to civil documentation.
WASH: 2.5 million people are in need of WASH support as a result of insufficient and damaged WASH infrastructure. Seasonal floods increase the severity of needs for the affected population.
Health: Children under five, pregnant and breastfeeding women, the elderly, and rape survivors are particularly in need of healthcare assistance. Unmet needs in other sectors make the population more vulnerable to endemic diseases. ?