ACAPS' Global Risk Analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. ACAPS analysts conduct daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
For the next six months, ACAPS has identified risks in the following contexts: Burkina Faso, Colombia, Ethiopia, Honduras, India, Libya, Maynmar, Nigeria, and Yemen.
The objective of ACAPS’ Global Risk Analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness, which should improve response.
Each year we take stock of our work and put together an annual report – you may have noticed we have published a variety of formats and layouts over the years, very much reflecting our own internal learning and evolution. This year we chose to provide four different perspectives on the global humanitarian situation. Within these pages you will find a comparative analyses of 14 of the major humanitarian situations with respect to the affected populations, people in need and humanitarian access; an analysis of three highly complex and evolving regional crises the sector grappled with over the year; and a spotlight on three severe crises that did not get sufficient attention in 2019. Finally, as the year comes to a close, we have identified a number of risks that may lead to a significant deterioration of particular crises in 2020. We hope you will find these perspectives informative and useful in your planning for 2020.
The security situation in Burkina Faso has deteriorated during 2019, and is expected to further worsen over the next 6 months. Violence has spread from the northern regions to the east of the country. While most of the attacks are attributed to Islamist groups such as ISGS, Ansarul Islam, and JNIM, self-defence militias have started to proliferate. Growing insecurity has led to significant forced displacement, both inside Burkina Faso (486,000 IDPs) and to neighbouring countries (16,000 refugees). Access to health services and education has deteriorated, and affected populations are in urgent need of protection, food and livelihoods assistance.
The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to:
• ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed;
• gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth;
• respond to specific requests for risk reports.
All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
In the region of Liptako Gourma, overlapping Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, an upsurge in violence since the beginning of 2018 has led to the displacement of more than 235,000 people. In Mali, long-standing tensions between Dogon (pastoralist farmers) and Fulani (nomadic herders) communities over access to land and water points escalated into clashes in 2018, and “self-defence” militias associated with both communities have led a series of attacks on the civilian population. The conflict, exploited by Islamist armed groups to strengthen their presence in the region, has spilled over into both Niger and Burkina Faso where tensions between communities are increasing and attacks against civilians, led by armed groups operating across the borders, have become more frequent. In Burkina Faso, the country most affected by the upsurge of violence in 2019, more than 70,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the year. IDPs are in urgent need of food and shelter assistance in particular. Access to health services and education are also constrained for both IDPs and host communities.
At least 49 people have been killed following an attack on 1 January 2019 in Yirgou and a string of retaliations by the armed group Ansaroul Islam and Koglweogo auto-defence groups in surrounding villages in the Centre-Nord and Sahel regions. The Sahel region has been increasingly impacted by the presence and activities of Islamist armed groups whose influence has also spread to the Nord, Centre-Nord and Est regions. The events led to the displacement of at least 6,100 people but this figure is likely to reach more than 12,300 as registrations are still ongoing. Displaced populations are in need of food and shelter assistance. Access to health services and education are also constrained for both IDPs and host communities.
The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.
Did you find this report useful? Help us improve our analysis, take our survey!
These scenarios consider how migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa (including across the Mediterranean Sea) might evolve in the first half of 2019 and the potential humanitarian consequences.
These scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Rather, they describe situations that could occur in the coming six months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working on migration. The time frame is until June 2019 although the scenarios may remain valid some months longer.
ACAPS has developed these scenarios for the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) under the DFID-funded Safety, Support and Solutions – Phase 2 programme.
Northern Burkina Faso has seen a rapid deterioration of the security situation since January 2017. Various attacks have been carried out in the area ranging from targeted killings, assassination attempts, village and school incursions to complex attacks against army or police position ?. The Ansarul Islam group, which has links to the Ansar Dine movement in Mali, is suspected to be behind most of the recent attacks ??. The increase in threats and attacks has caused fear across the region and led to the closure of over 600 schools in Oudalan and Soum provinces ?. Insecurity is also impacting access to other social services such as health, food security and protection.
Ansarul Islam is a new armed group, first known in December 2016 when it claimed responsibility for the attack of Nassoumbou military base in Burkina Faso, which resulted in 12 soldiers killed. Since then, it has claimed responsibility or being suspected for most of the recent attacks in the region ?. Ibrahim Malam Dicko is allegedly the leader. He first joined the Macina Liberation Front, an armed group close to Ansar Dine based in Mali, and in 2016 established his militia around Djibo in Burkina Faso and Douna and Selba in Mali ?. The aim of this group seems to re-establish a Fulani kingdom in the Sahel region ?.
24,354 people (3,080 households) have been affected by heavy winds and floods in seven regions of Burkina Faso. Eight have been killed and 54 injured. The most affected areas were Bissighin and Kilwin neighbourhoods in the capital Ouagadougou (Centre region), and Dallo department (Centre Ouest region). 1,184 people were also affected in Wendpoli in the Sahel region, where food insecurity is high. Significant property damage was reported, as well as food stocks and other material having been carried away by the floods. 2,430 people have been temporarily rehoused in schools. Rains are expected to continue until the end of August, and gaps have been identified in the response for food security, health, rehabilitation and protection.