They were developed in June 2019, during a one-day workshop in Kabul, Afghanistan. Staff from 20 humanitarian, academic, diplomatic, military, or policy organisations contributed to these scenarios through participation in the workshop or bilateral meetings.
Many variables that could cause change were mapped during the workshop. By making assumptions as to how these variables might plausibly change, five scenarios were identified.
We looked into nine indicators to rank and compare the humanitarian access levels worldwide. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months. 13 new countries entered the ranking since the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access report released in August 2018. Physical constraints and restriction/obstruction of access to services and assistance are the most common challenges.
Heavy rainfall since 25 March triggered floods across Herat, Badghis, Faryab, Sari Pul, Jowzjan and Balkh provinces in western and northern Afghanistan affecting 17,000 people. As assessments are ongoing and some of the affected areas are difficult to access, the full impact remains unclear. Available information suggests that vast areas of agricultural land have been damaged, and livestock lost, compounding already high levels of food insecurity in the affected provinces. Shelter needs are likely high as hundreds of houses have been damaged or destroyed. IDPs living in tents and makeshift camps are affected. Afghanistan has been experiencing severe floods since early March, affecting more than 143,000 people across the country.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Heavy rains and flooding have affected several thousand people in nine provinces across the country. The most severely affected provinces are Kandahar, Helmand, Farah, Herat and Badghis. The death toll currently stands at 70 people but is likely to increase as more information is made available. More than 8,670 houses have been damaged or destroyed, as well as agricultural land and infrastructure including water systems, increasing the risk of water- and vector- borne diseases. Response gaps include emergency shelter, food, NFIs, winter clothes and emergency latrines.
The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.
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Since mid-September, conflict has escalated between the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces and the Taliban in Sar-e-Pul, Jawzjan and Balkh provinces. Parliamentary elections will be held on 20 October and violence will likely continue in the runup to the vote. An unknown number of people have been displaced in the affected provinces. More people will probably be displaced as fighting can be expected to continue in the coming weeks. Continued insecurity will also mean that people are unlikely to be able to return home quickly and will be in need of humanitarian assistance. Lack of security in Sar-e-Pul and Jawzjan provinces will prevent IDPs and host communities from accessing basic services.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
Anticipatory report - On 3 January 2018, Pakistan granted Afghan refugees in Pakistan a residence extension until the end of January. This is the shortest extension ever given to Afghan refugees in Pakistan and raises concerns of imminent large-scale forced returns. Some 1.39 million Afghan refugees are registered in Pakistan, as well as an estimated one million unregistered Afghans. If returns are enforced, it is likely to have a major impact on shelter, protection, and food needs. However, previous deadlines have been threatened but not enforced, reducing the probability of the risk.
In the Afghan province of Sar-i Pul recent clashes over territorial control between the Taliban and the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have caused internal displacement. Over 7,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of December and are likely in need of protection, shelter, food, and health assistance. The newly displaced are in addition to an estimated 9,600 people displaced between January and November of this year.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
Conflict between the Taliban and Afghan security forces in the northern provinces has intensified in the first week of June, especially in Kunduz province. Since the beginning of 2017 12,000 IDPs have been displaced from Kunduz province, the majority to other provinces across Afghanistan, of which over 7,000 were displaced in May. Since January the newly displaced from Kunduz province represent 10% of the total newly displaced population across Afghanistan. IDPs displaced in May made up 49% of Afghanistan’s total displacement.
Although the flow of returnees to Afghanistan has slowed since its peak in mid-2016, more than 60,000 people have returned from Iran (54,000) and Pakistan (almost 10,000) this year. They are in need of livelihoods and shelter as well as protection assistance.
Returnees from Pakistan go through Torkham border in Nangarhar province and Spin Boldak border in Kandarhar. Undocumented returnees make up around 40% of a total of 620,000 Afghans who returned from Pakistan in 2016. Returnees from Iran go through Islam Qala border in Herat province and Milak border in Nimroz province. More than 248,000 people returned from Pakistan in 2016, and more than 443,000 from Iran.
The increase is a result of worsening relations between the Afghanistan and Pakistan governments, prompting increasing pressure to return. The increase in returns from Iran is primarily due to the perceived pressure by the Iranian government that Afghan undocumented migrants put on the Iranian economy.
Continuous heavy rainfall since February has caused severe flooding in Khashrod and Chakhansur districts in Nimroz province. As of 23 February several homes had been destroyed or swept away by flood waters, and over 20,000 hectares of arable land had been submerged in flood water. An estimated 3,000 people have been affected and displaced by flooding in both Chakhansur and Khashrod districts. Affected populations are in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Some of the affected were already vulnerable prior to the flooding. Many were either internally displaced or returnees from Iran.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.