Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.80 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.30 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Afghanistan: Risk overview
Afghanistan: One year into the Taliban takeover
Afghanistan: Earthquake in Paktika and Khost provinces
Afghanistan: Information and analysis ecosystem
Humanitarian Access Overview
Following an offensive that saw the Taliban take control of almost all districts previously held by the government, the Taliban entered the capital Kabul in August 2021 and consolidated their power in Afghanistan. The Afghanistan government collapsed, and the Taliban nominated some of their members to form a government in communication with a ‘coordination council’ formed by Afghan leaders to manage the transfer of power. ?Despite the Taliban’s taking control of much of the country, other resistance and armed groups started to challenge their authority. ?
Over 24 million people require humanitarian assistance in 2022.?Economic shocks are the main driver of humanitarian needs in Afghanistan. The average monthly income has fallen by 15% since last year. Reduced incomes, increased debt, and rising prices for basic goods such as food and fuel have resulted in households spending less on essential services including education and healthcare. Households in rural areas are particularly affected by the deteriorating economy, reporting higher debt and a higher proportion using emergency coping mechanisms than households in urban areas. Drought-affected communities, households having a member with a disability, and women-headed households with children, particularly girls, are more vulnerable to economic hardship. Access to food remains the priority need.?
Afghanistan is prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes, drought and floods. The government had declared drought conditions in June 2022. Water resources are increasingly strained owing to below-average precipitation since October 2020. Drought has triggered internal displacement, decreased livelihood opportunities, and contributed to food insecurity ?. Flooding regularly affects various parts of Afghanistan, particularly northern and eastern areas. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
very high Constraints
Afghanistan faced Very High humanitarian access constraints in the past six months, scoring 4/5 in ACAPS Humanitarian Access Index. The humanitarian access situation has been improving because the widespread conflict and displacement subsided, allowing better access for humanitarians to people in need and resulting in a slight improvement in the access score.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – July 2022.
Conflict Induced Displacements
Source : OCHA 27/02/2022 - https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/afghanistan/idps
Food: 20 million people in Afghanistan faced crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher levels of food insecurity between March and May 2022. ?
Protection: Women face restrictions in accessing property, education, and healthcare, and experience high rates of gender-based violence.?
Education: The protracted conflict and insecurity have affected access to education for at least 4.2 million children, 60% of whom are girls. Access to education for women and girls is particularly limited by sociocultural norms practised by some. The Taliban prevent girls from attending high school. Children in rural areas also face difficulties in accessing education because of the lack of schools, insufficient transportation, and geographical barriers. During natural disasters, parents avoid sending their children to school to safeguard them. ?
Months with higher temperatures, usually April–October/November, represent the Afghan fighting season – as milder temperatures make roads and other infrastructure, as well as mountain passes, more accessible.?
Heavy rains, which usually fall from January–April, often cause flash floods and landslides in remote northern areas of Afghanistan.?
Update from the October 2021 Risk Analysis
HIGH RISK LEVEL
Financial crisis leads to reduced income and purchasing power, resulting in increased humanitarian needs in Afghanistan
The Taliban’s takeover, the freezing of assets by the US and EU, and reduced international financial assistance have been driving the possible deterioration of conditions in Afghanistan over the past six months. Drought, displacement and urbanisation, and market and financial system disruptions, which all contribute to increased competition over limited essential public services, worsen the situation.? Following the August 2021 change in administration, more than 500,000 people have lost their jobs, with the number expected to reach 900,000 by mid-2022.? The Afghani currency lost over 31% of its value against the USD in 2021, contributing to price increases on basic goods and causing instability in humanitarian assistance and the value of salaries and cash.? The food security of Afghans is expected to deteriorate between November 2021 and March 2022, with 22.8 million people projected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity or higher, up from 19 million between September–October 2021.? A harsh winter season, which has disrupted humanitarian access and depleted food stocks, has also compounded the situation.? No country has yet recognised the Taliban interim administration, who is struggling to maintain functional public services and facing liquidity challenges.? Current strict regulations over banking systems and money transfers highly affect the ability to import goods. The economic situation will likely continue to worsen.
Update from the October 2021 Risk Analysis
HIGH RISK LEVEL
Increased displacement into surrounding countries, particularly Pakistan and Iran, results in increased needs and heightened protection concerns
Afghanistan continues to experience a deepening economic crisis, compounded by sporadic violent attacks by the Islamic State Khorasan Province, fighting with the National Resistance Front, and the Taliban lacking recognition as the legitimate government from the international community. There have been no significant improvements since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021. Overall access to basic services, such as education, healthcare, and financial and social services, will likely continue to worsen in 2022, affecting all population groups.? Given these circumstances and the severity of needs, the total number of new Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran reached about 122,480 in 2021.? The actual number of Afghans displacing into neighbouring countries might be greater.? Numbers remain difficult to verify as the borders remain tightly controlled, and people resort to using irregular border-crossing locations and smugglers.? As the movements take place irregularly, Afghans are exposed to increased protection concerns, exploitation, and abuse. Major concerns that surfaced in a needs assessment conducted with undocumented Afghans who recently left the country include detention fears and forced returns. Those interviewed cited shelter, livelihood, food, and documentation needs.? Despite the majority of Afghans leaving the country for security-related reasons, deportations continue from host countries.? Unless the situation significantly improves in Afghanistan, refugee arrivals in neighbouring countries will unlikely stop, and the risks highlighted in the October 2021 Global Risk Analysis will continue.
Afghanistan CrisisInSight Core Dataset
The ACAPS Afghanistan Analysis Hub aims to support a stronger evidence base for humanitarian decision-makers in Afghanistan through inter-sectoral and forward-looking analysis.
This dataset brings together data from a range of sources to provide a greater overall and comparative understanding of the current situation and context inside each district. The core indicators consist of key drivers (conflict, basic commodity prices, exclusion and marginalisation, and disrupted access to life-saving services and income sources) and their major expected humanitarian impacts (food insecurity, cholera).
ACAPS tracks changes in these indicators and alerts the humanitarian community to emerging trends or risks that could overwhelm local coping mechanisms in Afghanistan, triggering a humanitarian emergency.
The dataset is published on HDX and can be found here.