Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.70 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.5.00 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.90 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Scenarios: Displacement and access in Afghanistan
Afghanistan: Humanitarian impact and trends analysis
Humanitarian Access Overview
Following an offensive that saw the Taliban take control of almost all districts previously held by the government, the Taliban entered the capital Kabul on 15 August and consolidated their power in Afghanistan. President Ghani and key government officials had fled the country and the Afghanistan government collapsed. The Taliban have nominated some of their members to form a government and have been in communication with a ‘coordination council’ formed by Afghan leaders to manage the transfer of power ?. Despite the Taliban’s taking control of much of the country, other resistance and armed groups started to challenge their authority ?. Uncertainties remain regarding the future of Afghan government and what form of Shariah law the Taliban intend to implement.
More than 409,000 people have been newly internally displaced by the conflict between the Taliban and Government forces and the Taliban’s territorial expansion from May-August. Assessments and response are underway but humanitarians have limited capacity and national staff. Unified policies on humanitarian aid are not yet known, though Taliban officials in some areas have already requested that aid operations continue ?. The Taliban’s rapid advancement has raised fear and uncertainty among the population. Although the group has made public claims of amnesty, inclusiveness, and moderation, there are protection concerns for women, minorities, people in rural areas, and those affiliated with foreign entities ?.
Afghanistan is prone to natural disasters, including drought and floods. The government had declared drought conditions on 22 June. Water resources are increasingly strained owing to below-average precipitation since October 2020. Drought has triggered internal displacement, decreased livelihood opportunities, and contributed to food insecurity ?. Flooding regularly affect various parts of Afghanistan, particularly northern and eastern areas. Around 27,000 people have been affected by flooding in 2021 as at end July ?.
More than 80% of Afghanistan’s 2,300 health facilities are reducing operations and at risk of imminent closure due to shortages of medical staff and medicines. Shortages were caused by a lack of funding due to the suspension of international assistance following the Taliban’s takeover. Nine of 37 COVID-19 hospitals have already closed ?.
Humanitarian access has deteriorated since 2020. Violence escalated as the Taliban sought to increase their territorial control and Afghan National Security Forces conducted military operations and airstrikes. The active conflict continues to obstruct the delivery of aid and generate short-term and protracted displacements, which also hampers people’s access to humanitarian aid. IDPs, returnees, women, and undocumented people face the highest access constraints. Violence and bureaucratic interference, both in government-controlled areas and non-state armed groups-controlled areas, limit humanitarian operations and access.
Access constraints include interference in the implementation of activities, increased taxes, military operations, movement restrictions, violent attacks and threats against humanitarian personnel and assets, and the presence of landmines. Humanitarian operations are sometimes temporarily suspended because of violence. The national polio vaccination campaign was halted after the killing and injuring of multiple health workers. Checkpoints imposed by the Taliban often restrict the movement of people and goods. Recurrent flooding and landslides increased movement restrictions in 2021, particularly in the north and northeastern provinces. The current intra-Afghan peace talks, escalating conflict, and the withdrawal of foreign troops will be key in shaping humanitarian access in the next six months.
Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.
Conflict Induced Displacements
Source : OCHA 23/08/2021 - https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/afghanistan/idps
Food: Over half of the Afghan population cannot meet their minimum food requirements and are food insecure. Kabul, Herat, Nangarhar, Balkh, Faryab, Helmand, Kandahar, Badakhshan Ghazni, Ghor, and Takhar provinces are worst affected. Displacement, drought, and limited livelihood opportunities are likely to worsen food insecurity. ?
Health: Weak healthcare systems resulting from underinvestment, conflict, and natural disasters have left 14.5 million people in need of health assistance. Regular attacks on healthcare facilities and personnel limit people’s access to healthcare. Paying for healthcare is the second most significant reason for households to take on debt.?
Protection: Since 2014, there have been 10,000 civilian deaths and injuries per year in Afghanistan. For the fifth year in a row, the Afghanistan conflict is the deadliest conflict worldwide for children. Women face restrictions in accessing property, education, and healthcare, and experience high rates of gender-based violence. In 2020, women and children accounted for 43% of casualties.?
Months with higher temperatures, usually April–October/November, represent the Afghan fighting season – as milder temperatures make roads and other infrastructure, as well as mountain passes, more accessible.?
Heavy rains, which usually fall from January–April, often cause flash floods and landslides in remote northern areas of Afghanistan.?
As at mid-October, more than 155,509 confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 7,226 associated deaths were reported in Afghanistan ?. The country has been experiencing a new COVID-19 wave peak since late September, with an overall positivity rate reaching above 30% ?. Only 5% of the total population were fully vaccinated and 2.8% were partially vaccinated as at early October ?.
The pandemic has been straining the fragile healthcare system and infrastructure, already heavily affected by the recent Taliban takeover and conflict-related displacement reported between May–August. Testing capacities have decreased, and health facilities have closed as a result of insecurity and medical personnel not being paid ?. Changes in power and uncertainty over the status of the airport and border crossings disrupted humanitarian airbridge and supply chains, leading to a critical shortage of medical supplies.