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Country analysis

Afghanistan


The drivers of the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan include economic crisis, drought and other climate hazards, insecurity, and protection threats, which particularly affect women and girls.

In 2024, 23.7 million people will require humanitarian assistance, because of the persisting effects of past years of armed conflict and displacement, economic shocks, and structural issues (including poverty and poor infrastructure). Food remains a priority need, followed by livelihood opportunities. Afghanistan faces a widespread climate change-induced water crisis. Several Taliban decrees, directives and its overall control over citizens' lives affect humanitarian response in the country.

Despite slight stabilization since January 2023 with lower commodity prices and improved harvests, Afghanistan's economy remains one of the main drivers of needs. Women-headed households, households with members experiencing disabilities, rural households, and recent returnees are the most vulnerable. These groups resort to coping strategies to meet their needs; and face challenges in maintaining adequate food consumption, have higher debts and lower income. In Afghanistan, 6.3 million people are internally displaced, and 1.9 million returned from Iran and Pakistan.

In October 2023, four magnitude 6.3 earthquakes, along with multiple aftershocks, hit Herat province, affecting 1.6 million people. 114,000 of this number remain in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.

(OCHA 23/12/2023, OCHA 16/10/2023, IPC 14/12/2023, UNDP 18/01/2024, UNICEF 11/12/2023)

The drivers of the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan include economic crisis, drought and other climate hazards, insecurity, and protection threats, which particularly affect women and girls.

In 2024, 23.7 million people will require humanitarian assistance, because of the persisting effects of past years of armed conflict and displacement, economic shocks, and structural issues (including poverty and poor infrastructure). Food remains a priority need, followed by livelihood opportunities. Afghanistan faces a widespread climate change-induced water crisis. Several Taliban decrees, directives and its overall control over citizens' lives affect humanitarian response in the country.

Despite slight stabilization since January 2023 with lower commodity prices and improved harvests, Afghanistan's economy remains one of the main drivers of needs. Women-headed households, households with members experiencing disabilities, rural households, and recent returnees are the most vulnerable. These groups resort to coping strategies to meet their needs; and face challenges in maintaining adequate food consumption, have higher debts and lower income. In Afghanistan, 6.3 million people are internally displaced, and 1.9 million returned from Iran and Pakistan.

In October 2023, four magnitude 6.3 earthquakes, along with multiple aftershocks, hit Herat province, affecting 1.6 million people. 114,000 of this number remain in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.

(OCHA 23/12/2023, OCHA 16/10/2023, IPC 14/12/2023, UNDP 18/01/2024, UNICEF 11/12/2023)

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Latest updates on country situation

28 February 2024

Since November 2023, Afghanistan has been experiencing an increase in suspected measles cases, driven by high community transmission worsened by winter conditions and inadequate immunisation coverage. Since January 2024, approximately 6,000 cases have been reported, resulting in 24 deaths. The majority of those affected are children under five. (WHO 22/02/2024)

15 January 2024

In 2024, 23.7 million people, over half of the population, are likely to require humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan. The onset of winter and the pre-existing vulnerability of the people affected by the 2023 earthquakes in Herat province aggravate the humanitarian crisis. The earthquakes affected 275,000 people, including 96,000 children, and damaged or destroyed over 30,000 shelters. The crisis led thousands of families to live in makeshift camps without adequate WASH and heating access, exposing them to a higher risk of diseases. Since September 2023, acute respiratory infections (ARI) have been rising with the onset of winter. Since January 2023, over 2,800 ARI-related deaths have been reported, 62% of which involve under-five children. 17.9 million people are in need of health assistance across the country, including 842,000 in Herat. At least 150 people have died from the colder-than-usual weather conditions in 2023. (OCHA 23/12/2023, WHO 10/01/2024, CARE 10/01/2024)

14 December 2023

Around 15.8 million people are projected to experience high food insecurity levels – i.e. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse – between November 2023 and March 2024, a 21% increase compared to October 2023. The main drivers are high food prices, reduced income, and unemployment, compounded by the onset of winter and the influx of Afghan refugees. Over 500,000 Afghans had arrived from Pakistan and Iran as at 15 December, facing limited food, WASH, and health access. Food insecurity already contributes to high malnutrition levels, with four million children and women projected to experience acute malnutrition between November 2022 and April 2023, leading to increased morbidity and mortality rates. The persistent struggle to secure sufficient food compels people to adopt coping strategies with potentially harmful consequences, aggravating conditions for impoverished Afghans as they become exposed to the associated risks linked to inadequate diet, nutrition deficiencies, and compromised immunity. (IPC 14/12/2023, CARE et al. 14/12/2023, STC 14/12/2023)

06 November 2023

Pakistan's Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan has left Afghan refugees in a precarious situation. Since the Government's directive for all undocumented migrants to depart Pakistan by 1 November 2023, over 160,000 Afghan refugees have returned to Afghanistan, most because of fear of arrest. These individuals are residing at the border, lacking access to essentials, including food, shelter, and WASH. Their borders are also being confiscated at the Pakistani border, leaving them with limited possessions. Despite the Pakistani authorities' assurance that only undocumented refugees will be repatriated, the number of arrests of proof of registration cardholders increased significantly by 11 times in October 2023 compared to October 2022. The influx is expected to rise in the upcoming days, aggravating the already challenging situation in Afghanistan, particularly with the approaching winter. The country is grappling with various difficulties, such as drought, economic hardships, longstanding conflict, and the current Taliban-led government's international isolation. (IOM et al. 03/11/2023, UNHCR/IOM 01/11/2023, AP 06/11/2023)

16 October 2023

Between 7–15 October 2023, three magnitude 6.3 earthquakes hit Herat province in Afghanistan and affected 1.6 million people, 114,000 of whom have urgent needs for humanitarian assistance. These needs include temporary shelter, food and cash assistance, safe water and WASH supplies, emergency healthcare, and protection. (OCHA 16/10/2023)

11 October 2023

Since the earthquake that struck Herat province on 7 October 2023, several powerful tremors and aftershocks have continued to affect parts of Afghanistan. Around 1.3 million people live within 50km of the epicentre of the earthquakes. Zindajan district has been the worst affected, followed by Gulran, Injil, Kohsan, and Kushk districts. As at 10 October, the impact had affected over 12,000 people, killed over 2,000, and injured up to 4,000. 485 people were missing, and 2,100 were displaced. These figures are expected to continue rising, with assessments underway to determine the full extent of the disaster's impact. Priority needs include shelter, NFIs, healthcare, WASH, food, and protection. Children are particularly vulnerable and require urgent mental health and psychosocial support. Some earthquake-affected households have experienced displacement and family separation. The country's rugged terrain and poor infrastructure are also hindering relief efforts.
(OCHA 10/10/2023, iMMAP 09/10/2023, TNH 09/10/2023)

08 October 2023

On 7 October 2023, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck Afghanistan, with significant aftershocks following. The epicentre was found in Zindajan district, around 40km west of Herat city, and the effects were felt as far as Badghis and Farah provinces. As at 8 October, the impact had killed over 1,000 individuals, injured over 1,500, and affected 11,585, including 1,400 IDPs. It had also destroyed over 1,300 shelters. Humanitarian responders are providing relief in the affected areas, with priority needs including food, emergency shelter and NFIs, healthcare, and WASH facilities, including hygiene kits. (OCHA 08/10/2023, OCHA 07/10/2023, Arab News 08/10/2023)

current crises
in Afghanistan


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

AFG006 - Earthquake in Herat Province

Last updated 29/02/2024


Drivers

Earthquake

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

2.8 Medium

Access constraints

3.0

AFG001 - Complex crisis

Last updated 29/02/2024


Drivers

Conflict
Violence
Displacement
Drought
Earthquake
Socio-political

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.4 Very High

Access constraints

4.0

Analysis products
on Afghanistan

Afghanistan: anticipated impact of delayed and extreme winter precipitation

15 March 2024

Afghanistan: anticipated impact of delayed and extreme winter precipitation

DOCUMENT / PDF / 368 KB

Since 26 February 2024, heavy snow and rainfall have affected most of Afghanistan’s provinces, resulting in casualties, widespread service disruptions, infrastructure breakdowns, and significant livestock losses.

Natural hazards
Afghanistan: Key risk areas to watch: January – June 2024 and beyond

25 January 2024

Afghanistan: Key risk areas to watch: January – June 2024 and beyond

DOCUMENT / PDF / 302 KB

This report considers seven issues expected to affect the living conditions in Afghanistan from January–June 2024. While they may not all be immediate risks likely to materialise within the year and while not all will have the same scale or type of impact, they are all issues of which humanitarian decision makers should be aware to anticipate needs and ensure context-sensitive programming.

Afghanistan: spotlight on social impact

09 January 2024

Afghanistan: spotlight on social impact

DOCUMENT / PDF / 331 KB

This report is released every four months to shed light on issues emerging from information about the country that have or are likely to have a significant social impact. It focuses on issues with a direct effect on Afghans’ daily lives and that may have profound yet overlooked consequences on the humanitarian response.

Afghanistan-Pakistan: forced return of Afghans from Pakistan

07 December 2023

Afghanistan-Pakistan: forced return of Afghans from Pakistan

DOCUMENT / PDF / 481 KB

On 3 October 2023, Pakistani authorities announced that all foreigners in the country without valid documents would be forced to leave by 1 November or face arrest and deportation.

Displacement
Afghanistan: update on Taliban decrees and directives affecting the humanitarian response

01 December 2023

Afghanistan: update on Taliban decrees and directives affecting the humanitarian response

DOCUMENT / PDF / 600 KB

This report provides an update on the Interim Taliban Authority (ITA) decrees and directives (edicts) relevant to the Afghanistan humanitarian response. The analysis covers the period between the publication of ACAPS’ baseline report in April 2023 and October 2023. 

Humanitarian access
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