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Risks

Mexico High

Ratification of the bilateral Asylum Cooperation Agreements between the US and Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras leads to protection concerns and increased humanitarian needs of asylum-seekers

According to the US government’s official figures of 2019, 60,891 unaccompanied children, 419,831 families, and 109,153 adults from the ‘Northern Triangle of Central America’ (NTCA) – Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala – have been apprehended at the US-Mexican border (U.S. Customs and Border Protection 23/10/2019), accounting for most apprehensions at the border by region of origin. These figures do not include those who approached designated ports of entry, suggesting the actual number of...

India High

Assam National Citizens Registry (NRC) leaves 1.9 million people at risk of statelessness, detention, and displacement

Risk Rationale

The Indian state of Assam published the final National Register of Citizens (NRC) on 31 August 2019. The exercise began in 2015 and sought to detect illegal migrants. 33 million applications for inclusion were received and 1.9 million were excluded from the final list. Bengali Hindus and Muslims constitute the largest number of exclusions, though more than 100,000 Gorkhas (ethnic Nepalis) were also excluded....

Haiti Medium

A worsening economic and political crisis leads to long term protests, causing protracted disruption of aid delivery and rising poverty levels

Burundi Medium

Continued reduction in settlement services and increased pressure from the Tanzanian government results in mass return of Burundian refugees, where they face reintegration and protection challenges

In 2015, a wave of Burundians fled the country following President Nkurunziza’s announcement of a controversial third term. Political repression and violent unrest led to hundreds of deaths and a mass exodus of over 400,000 citizens, who sought refuge in neighbouring countries, mostly Tanzania  (The New Humanitarian 15/10/2019). Although over 76,000 have returned to Burundi from Tanzania since 2017, more than 205,000 remain, living predominately within three refugee camps...

Indonesia Medium

Escalating violence due to protests in Papua and West Papua leads to displacement and increased humanitarian needs.

The provinces of Papua and West Papua are home to a low-level insurgency, ongoing since the establishment of the Free Papua Movement in 1963. Violence escalated after a large-scale attack by militants in December 2018.? Since 19 August 2019, anti-racism protests have erupted and the independence movement has reignited, causing widespread violence. Protests erupted in response to the detention and discriminatory treatment of 43 Papuan students on...

Yemen Medium

Oil spill of floating storage and offloading vessel could cause high environmental impact in the Red Sea and Yemen

Rationale

The floating storage and offloading (FSO) terminal SAFER, a previously converted oil tanker, is moored in the Red Sea off the coast of Ras Issa, 50km northwest of Al Hudaydah port. Since 2015, the FSO has been under Houthi control; however, they have stopped maintaining the structure. The FSO has been  neglected probably due to lack of capacity, coupled with the fact that following the Saudi-led coalition naval blockade in 2015 and airstrikes on the Al Hudaydah port’s infrastructure, the Houthis were unable to carry out any type of oil operation.

The Houthis have been demanding a...

Chad Low

Increased violence between government forces and non-state armed groups in Tibesti leads to worsening of food and protection needs

Violent conflict has spiked in Tibesti since late 2018, involving a wide variety of different groups including the Chadian military, opposition factions such as the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR) and Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) which seek to overthrow the government, as well as local self-defense militias. In January 2019, several dozen people were killed following clashes in a gold mining area which pitted CCMSR soldiers against Sudanese militias aligned with the Chadian government.?...

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Full severity index
05/12/2019

Check out the Global Crisis Severity Index dataset for November 2019!

Any questions? Please contact us info@acaps.org

Quarterly Trends report
05/04/2019

ACAPS analysis team identifies main changes in the humanitarian situation during the data collection, and issues a trends report on a quarterly basis. The next publication is scheduled for the end of July.

Quarterly risks report
20/06/2019

The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. The next publication is scheduled for the end of September.

The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.

Humanitarian access
31/10/2019

The biannual publication Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts regarding humanitarian access. In this report we also compare the level of humanitarian access between the previous update and the current situation. The next publication is scheduled for the end of October.

What is CrisisInSight?

CrisisInSight is the new ACAPS analysis portfolio which enables you to compare the severity of crises globally as well as the level of humanitarian access, while providing trends analysis and a forward-looking scan for risks.
 
In order to measure the severity of a crisis, we use the INFORM Global Crisis Severity Index (GCSI) which brings together 31 core indicators, organised in three dimensions: impact, conditions of affected people, and complexity.

Some key finding from our latest data collection in September 2019:

113 crises have been identified in 67 countries of which 34 are categorised as internal displacement 

15 crises have shown no final score due to significant info gaps

 

Learn more about CrisisInSight