An unusually active hurricane season leads to higher levels of food insecurity and humanitarian needs in a country with already limited national response capacity
Rationale
As of 27 October, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season (1 June–30 November) had already produced 28 named storms – one of which reached Haiti – and three major hurricanes.? This is well above the yearly average of 12 storms....
Continued depreciation of the Yemeni riyal drives inflation up, reducing households’ purchasing power and access to basic needs
Rationale
Foreign currency is of vital importance to the Yemeni economy, as the country imports around 90% of food and fuel requirements.? All main inflows of foreign currency in Yemen have been hit hard by the conflict, and by the global oil prices crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Earnings from Yemen oil exports have halved because of the fall in global oil prices and interrupted exports. A Saudi deposit of US$2.2 billion...
The deepening socioeconomic crisis in Lebanon leads Syrian refugees to opt for unsafe return to Syria, increasing humanitarian needs
RATIONALE
The Lebanese economic crisis – which started in 2017 – has caused many Syrian refugees to lose their jobs. Since October 2019, the Lebanese lira (LBP) has lost over 80% of its value and inflation has exceeded 100%, impacting food prices and other basic goods. The situation has deteriorated further with the economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the explosion in Beirut, which destroyed or partially destroyed residential and business areas and Lebanon’s key commercial port....
Loss of state authority following contested elections leads to an increase in armed group activity and in the severity of humanitarian needs
Rationale
CAR is currently experiencing a complex crisis, largely as a result of protracted conflict between government forces and a variety of armed groups since 2013. The state does not have full authority over the nation’s territory and maintains ambiguous relationships with armed groups.? Legislative and presidential elections are scheduled for 27 December 2020, with a potential second round (if a majority is not reached in the first round) on 14 February...
Reintroduction of COVID-19 mitigation measures results in decreased access to livelihoods and a deterioration in food security
Rationale
Over 90% of consumer goods and services in Lesotho come from South Africa, which is also an important labour market for Lesotho citizens – 420,000 migrants from Lesotho work in South Africa. Almost 10,000 more people are employed annually in South African farms as seasonal workers. ?
Both Lesotho and South Africa implemented a lockdown from the end of March to May 2020 and closed the border to mitigate the...
Rise in violent events targeting civilians, IDPs, and refugees in the Far North region results in increased displacement and protection needs
Rationale
Boko Haram’s activity in the Lake Chad Basin was at its peak in 2014–2015 and declined afterwards.? Since 2019, an increase in violent events by Boko Haram and other armed groups, such as attacks, killings, and kidnappings, has been observed in the area, including in the Far North region of Cameroon....
The reactivation of Colombia’s economic activity leads to a large influx of Venezuelan refugees and migrants, who will face increased livelihood and protection needs aggravated by a rise in xenophobia
Colombia hosts around 1.8 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants. Many of these are part of the informal economy and lost their livelihoods because of COVID-19 containment measures. Colombia’s economy has been particularly affected by COVID-19, experiencing a 7.1% GDP loss since March and an increase in the unemployment rate of 6% from August 2019 to August 2020....
Fighting between government forces and nonstate armed groups continues amid scheduled elections and COVID-19, worsening humanitarian needs and disenfranchising parts of the population
Risk Rationale
A general election is set to take place in Myanmar on 8 November, amid the COVID-19 pandemic and despite continued fighting between several ethnic armed groups (EAOs), Tatmadaw government forces, and armed militias in Rakhine, Kachin, Chin, and Shan States. This has resulted in continued internal displacement, difficulty in accessing certain areas – particularly Rakhine State – and increased humanitarian needs across the four states. The peace process, which began in 2016, and subsequent ceasefire agreements have lost momentum as state and non-state actors continue to use violence instead of a viable...
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The INFORM Severity Index summarises a wide range of already existing, quantitative information about crisis severity and presents it in a format that can be used more easily in decision-making. It aggregates information from a range of credible, publicly available sources. Human analysts collect the data and enter it into the Index.
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ACAPS analysis team is working in identifying key changes and trends in the humanitarian situation during the data collection.
The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.
The biannual publication Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts regarding humanitarian access. This report centers upon countries in which ACAPS had identified humanitarian crises. The analysis includes focused narrative and analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the different aspects of humanitarian access.
CrisisInSight is the new ACAPS analysis portfolio which enables you to compare the severity of crises globally as well as the level of humanitarian access, while providing trends analysis and a forward-looking scan for risks.
In order to measure the severity of a crisis, we use the INFORM Severity Index which brings together 31 core indicators, organised in three dimensions: impact, conditions of affected people, and complexity.
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