COVID-19 epidemic in Yemen
Rationale
As the COVID-19 virus continues to spread globally and international travel reduces, the virus continues to spread to neighbouring countries. Despite precautions by national authorities and WHO to minimise the risk of virus transmission, identification of an infected person already in Yemen, fails to self-isolate effectively and infects others. Due to a lack of test kits and fear of reporting, the virus spreads to many others before the authorities realise it is in country. Before long, crisis-affected vulnerable populations become infected. The virus spreads rapidly due to poor living conditions, high...
Increasing insecurity and displacement cause a deterioration of food security in the Central North, East, North, and Sahel regions
RATIONALE
Conflict in Burkina Faso intensified in 2019 and an increase of attacks against civilians by armed groups and intercommunal attacks led to a surge of displacement. The number of IDPs rose from 90,000 in January 2019 to over 760,000 in mid-February 2020.? IDPs fleeing conflict-affected regions are living mainly in Central North and Sahel regions but increasingly in North region and across the...
Additional government citizenship initiatives fuel intercommunal violence, embolden militancy in Kashmir, and lead to government oppression of Muslim communities, increasing protection concerns, access restrictions, and displacement.
Risk Rationale
Recent moves by Prime Minister Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have strained relations and incited new dissent from India’s Muslim population. In August 2019, a presidential decree revoked the autonomy status of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state. A complete lockdown on communications and movement in the region followed. Simultaneously, the Assam National Register of Citizens (NRC) brought the citizenship status of 1.9 million people, mostly Muslims and minorities, into question, and efforts to establish a nationwide registry have been met with opposition. The situation was further...
Escalating conflict and government restrictions in Rakhine lead to deterioration of humanitarian conditions for Rohingya, especially in northern and central townships.
Risk Rationale
The end of 2019 saw intensified conflict between the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) and the Arakan Army. Armed clashes resulted in 9,000 new displacements in November 2019 and mine contamination and shelling in Rohingya villages has caused a spike in civilian casualties in early 2020, particularly in the northern townships of Buthidaung, Rathedaung, and Kyauktaw. Units of the Arakan Army have advanced to more southern areas of Rakhine, which will likely cause an increase in humanitarian needs in townships previously less affected by the conflict....
Escalation of banditry in the northwest leading to increased protection, food security and displacement concerns
RATIONALE
Banditry (village raids, kidnapping and cattle rustling) in northwest Nigeria since 2018 has led to the internal displacement of 210,000 people, and an additional 35,000 fleeing to Maradi, in Niger (UNHCR 03/2020). Activity has increased in recent months with attacks in several states including Zamfara, Katsina,...
Increased violence between armed groups leads to confinement, displacement and humanitarian needs in rural areas in Norte de Santander, Chocó and Nariño
Colombia’s government signed a peace agreement with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) in 2016 but armed conflict has continued, leaving people with unmet humanitarian needs in Norte de Santander, Chocó and Nariño departments. After the peace agreement, competing armed groups fought for control over areas previously controlled by FARC and conflict intensified. At the beginning of 2018 the Popular Liberation Army (EPL) declared war on the National Liberation Army (ELN). Their clashes intensified in 2019, fuelled also by the presence of FARC dissidents and paramilitary groups such as the Clan del Golfo. Escalation of armed...
The opening of a new frontline along the Abu Qurayn-Tawergha-Misrata main road leads to displacement and protection violations, while threatening the livelihoods of the population of the three centres.
RATIONALE
The road connecting Abu Qurayn and Misrata is a strategic artery, which might soon be subject to increasingly intense attacks by Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF). Peace efforts are stagnating, while the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) and its allies are under increasing economic and military pressure. With UN negotiations slowing down after the resignation of UN Envoy Ghassan Salamé and multiple ceasefire violations reported at the end of February, the new battlefront might be definitively opened....
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ACAPS analysis team is working in identifying key changes and trends in the humanitarian situation during the data collection.
The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.
The biannual publication Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts regarding humanitarian access. This report centers upon countries in which ACAPS had identified humanitarian crises. The analysis includes focused narrative and analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the different aspects of humanitarian access.
CrisisInSight is the new ACAPS analysis portfolio which enables you to compare the severity of crises globally as well as the level of humanitarian access, while providing trends analysis and a forward-looking scan for risks.
In order to measure the severity of a crisis, we use the INFORM Severity Index which brings together 31 core indicators, organised in three dimensions: impact, conditions of affected people, and complexity.
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