The ACAPS Risk List
An all new tool to support early warning.
This dataset contains risks identified by our analysts in their daily monitoring of more than 100 crises worldwide.
- Undetermined severity
- Very low severity (0-1)
- Low severity (1.1-2)
- Medium severity (2.1-3)
- High severity (3.1-4)
- Very high severity (4.1-5)
- Risk
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Risks
Sudan
High
A reduction in subsidies causing severe electricity and fuel shortages leads to crop failures, livelihood loss, and worsening food insecurity
Rationale
Sudan’s economic crisis has worsened following the October 2021 military coup, foreign assistance cuts, and rising prices and taxes.? Since mid-2021, the country has been following a three-year economic reform programme with the International Monetary Fund, which requires the Government to reduce subsidies on retail electricity and fuel prices....
Mali
High
Prolonged economic sanctions lead to loss of livelihoods and increased food insecurity
RATIONALE
On 9 January 2022, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) applied additional economic sanctions against Mali, including the closure of land and air borders with member countries, the suspension of all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS countries and Mali, and a freeze on Malian assets in the Central Banks of ECOWAS.? The sanctions came after Mali’s National...
Philippines
Medium
Political violence and attacks by armed groups in Mindanao around the May 2022 presidential elections result in displacement and protection issues
RATIONALE
Electoral violence across the Philippines is a threat during the three-month-long election season that started on 8 February 2022. Filipino voters will choose their next president, vice president, and 18,000 other political positions on 9 May.? Electoral violence by privately hired armed groups includes voter intimidation, attacks on polls, and the assassination of political rivals....
Ethiopia
Medium
Resource-based clashes because of continuing drought increase insecurity and conflict displacement in Oromia and Somali regions
RATIONALE
Drought is affecting at least 2.8 million people in Oromia and 2.3 million people in Somali.? More than 1.5 million livestock died between November 2021 and March 2022 in both regions....
DPRK
Medium
The detection of COVID-19 cases causes the Government to (re)enact strict border control measures that worsen food insecurity, lowering food consumption and nutritional diversity levels among the most vulnerable
RATIONALE
Low agricultural productivity, natural disasters and weather shocks, unsustainable economic and agricultural practices, and international sanctions against the DPRK’s nuclear programme drive a complex crisis in the country, in which chronic food insecurity is a prominent component....
Venezuela
Medium
The intensification of armed conflict on both sides of the Colombian-Venezuelan border and in Venezuela increases the number of internally displaced Colombians and Venezuelans in Colombia needing assistance
RATIONALE
The demobilisation and subsequent withdrawal from the Colombian-Venezuelan border of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-EP) following the 2016 peace agreement strengthened other armed groups, mainly the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC-EP dissidents, in Colombia and Venezuela border departments....
Yemen
Medium
The militarisation of Al Hodeidah and Saleef ports leads to targeted attacks on the ports, forcing their closure and causing food and fuel import disruptions
RATIONALE
Since January 2022, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen has made more accusations regarding the Houthi militarisation of Al Hodeidah and Saleef ports. On 3 January 2022, the de-facto authority (DFA) in the north of Yemen (also known as the Houthis) seized an Emirati-flagged vessel in the Red Sea. They have since kept it in Saleef port just north of Al Hodeidah....
DRC
Medium
The resurgence of the 23 March Movement (M23) and intensification of conflict lead to displacement and further deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Nord Kivu
RATIONALE
Since November 2021, more than a dozen attacks targeting the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) in Nord Kivu province have been attributed to the military arm of M23....
Mali
Medium
The withdrawal of Barkhane forces and consequent increase in clashes and territorial expansion between armed groups result in displacement, protection concerns, and the deterioration of humanitarian access
RATIONALE
On 17 February, the French president announced the withdrawal from Mali of the Barkhane forces and the European Takuba Task Force. Their full withdrawal is set to happen over the next four to six months.? Following a previous announcement of Barkhane’s downsizing in Mali in June 2021, hostile reactions from the...
Tonga
Low
Continued COVID-19-related movement restrictions and extreme weather conditions during the cyclone season delay the recovery process from the tsunami and result in increased humanitarian needs
RATIONALE
A volcanic eruption and a tsunami hit Tonga on 15 January 2022, affecting 80% of the population (84,000 people).? With relief aid coming from foreign countries into the island, there has been an increase in COVID-19 cases starting 1 February. Previously, Tonga had recorded only one COVID-19 case since the start of the pandemic, with the Government applying strict measures on international travel to avoid an outbreak....
Kenya
Low
Electoral violence and increased intercommunal conflict throughout Kenya result in displacement, livelihood disruptions, and protection concerns
RATIONALE
Violence has marred previous election periods in Kenya, where there has been an established pattern of disputed presidential election outcomes since 2007. In the run-up to the August 2022 general elections, politicians are mobilising support based on ethnic affiliation and socioeconomic difference....
Pakistan
Low
The strengthened presence of the Tehreek-eTaliban Pakistan (TTP) in the newly merged tribal districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) increases humanitarian needs, protection concerns, and access constraints in the area
RATIONALE
The US-Taliban peace deal in early 2020 precipitated a resurgence of TTP activity in Pakistan, further boosted by the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, with whom the TTP has a long-standing relationship...
Crisis severity
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Very High Severity
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High Severity
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Angola 3.3
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Bangladesh 3.4
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Burkina Faso 3.9
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Burundi 3.5
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Colombia 4.0
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DPRK 3.8
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El Salvador 3.2
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Eritrea 3.7
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Guatemala 3.6
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Honduras 3.3
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Iran 3.6
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Iraq 3.9
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Kenya 3.8
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Lebanon 3.5
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Libya 3.6
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Mozambique 3.6
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Niger 3.6
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Pakistan 3.9
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Peru 3.1
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Sri Lanka 3.4
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Turkey (Türkiye) 3.2
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Uganda 3.3
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Venezuela 4.0
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Zambia 3.4
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Zimbabwe 3.8
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Medium Severity
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Algeria 2.6
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Brazil 2.5
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Chile 2.6
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Congo 2.1
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Costa Rica 2.1
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Djibouti 2.5
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Ecuador 2.7
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Eswatini 2.1
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Hungary 2.6
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Indonesia 2.6
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Jordan 2.7
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Madagascar 2.9
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Malawi 3.0
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Malaysia 2.3
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Mauritania 2.2
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Mexico 2.8
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Moldova 2.3
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Morocco 2.1
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Namibia 2.5
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Panama 2.2
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Papua New Guinea 2.6
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Philippines 2.9
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Poland 2.9
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Romania 2.4
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Rwanda 2.4
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Senegal 2.4
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Slovakia 2.3
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Tanzania 2.7
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Tunisia 3.0
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Low Severity
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Very Low Severity
No result.
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Undetermined Severity
No country found. Return to full list
Crisis Severity
0 Very low
Very high 5
Latest developments
Access constraints
No constraints
Extreme constraints
Risk
Download our reports
Full severity index
07/09/2022
The INFORM Severity Index summarises a wide range of already existing, quantitative information about crisis severity and presents it in a format that can be used more easily in decision-making. It aggregates information from a range of credible, publicly available sources. Human analysts collect the data and enter it into the Index.
Any questions? Please contact us info@acaps.org
Quarterly Trends report
31/07/2021
ACAPS analysis team is working in identifying key changes and trends in the humanitarian situation during the data collection.
Quarterly risks report
24/03/2022
The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.
Humanitarian access
05/07/2022
ACAPS considered nine variables (under three pillars or dimensions) to compare humanitarian access constraints across 82 countries with active humanitarian crises. In this report, there is an analytical narrative per pillar, with an explanation of what type of humanitarian access constraints and indicators fall under each pillar. The narratives include concrete examples of how these constraints apply in different humanitarian contexts, pointing out similarities and differences in the humanitarian access situation across the crises monitored by ACAPS.