CrisisInSight

Undetermined severity
Very low severity (0-1)
Low severity (1.1-2)
Medium severity (2.1-3)
High severity (3.1-4)
Very high severity (4.1-5)
Risk

Risks

Burkina Faso High

Increasing insecurity and displacement cause a deterioration of food security in the Central North, East, North, and Sahel regions

RATIONALE

Conflict in Burkina Faso intensified in 2019 and an increase of attacks against civilians by armed groups and intercommunal attacks led to a surge of displacement. The number of IDPs rose from 90,000 in January 2019 to over 760,000 in mid-February 2020.? IDPs fleeing conflict-affected regions are living mainly in Central North and Sahel regions but increasingly in North region and across the...

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India Medium

Additional government citizenship initiatives fuel intercommunal violence, embolden militancy in Kashmir, and lead to government oppression of Muslim communities, increasing protection concerns, access restrictions, and displacement.

Risk Rationale

Recent moves by Prime Minister Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have strained relations and incited new dissent from India’s Muslim population. In August 2019, a presidential decree revoked the autonomy status of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state. A complete lockdown on communications and movement in the region followed. Simultaneously, the Assam National Register of Citizens (NRC) brought the citizenship status of 1.9 million people, mostly Muslims and minorities, into question, and efforts to establish a nationwide registry have been met with opposition. The situation was further...

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Yemen Medium

COVID-19 epidemic in Yemen

Rationale

As the COVID-19 virus continues to spread globally and international travel reduces, the virus continues to spread to neighbouring countries. Despite precautions by national authorities and WHO to minimise the risk of virus transmission, identification of an infected person already in Yemen, fails to self-isolate effectively and infects others. Due to a lack of test kits and fear of reporting, the virus spreads to many others before the authorities realise it is in country. Before long, crisis-affected vulnerable populations become infected. The virus spreads rapidly due to poor living conditions, high...

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Myanmar Medium

Escalating conflict and government restrictions in Rakhine lead to deterioration of humanitarian conditions for Rohingya, especially in northern and central townships.

Risk Rationale

The end of 2019 saw intensified conflict between the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) and the Arakan Army. Armed clashes resulted in 9,000 new displacements in November 2019 and mine contamination and shelling in Rohingya villages has caused a spike in civilian casualties in early 2020, particularly in the northern townships of Buthidaung, Rathedaung, and Kyauktaw. Units of the Arakan Army have advanced to more southern areas of Rakhine, which will likely cause an increase in humanitarian needs in townships previously less affected by the conflict....

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Libya Medium

The opening of a new frontline along the Abu Qurayn-Tawergha-Misrata main road leads to displacement and protection violations, while threatening the livelihoods of the population of the three centres.

RATIONALE

The road connecting Abu Qurayn and Misrata is a strategic artery, which might soon be subject to increasingly intense attacks by Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF). Peace efforts are stagnating, while the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) and its allies are under increasing economic and military pressure. With UN negotiations slowing down after the resignation of UN Envoy Ghassan Salamé and multiple ceasefire violations reported at the end of February, the new battlefront might be definitively opened....

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Crisis severity

Very High Severity
Countries Score ../5
- Afghanistan 4.2
  - Complex crisis 4.2
- DPRK 4.1
  - Complex crisis 4.1
- Somalia 4.5
- Sudan 4.6
  - Complex crisis 4.6
  - Refugees 3.4
- Syria 4.8
  - Conflict 4.8
  - Syrian Regional Crisis 4.2
- Yemen 4.5
  - Complex crisis 4.5
  - Mixed Migration 2.8
High Severity
Countries Score ../5
Medium Severity
Countries Score ../5
- Bangladesh 2.7
  - Rohingya Refugees 2.7
  - Rohingya Regional Crisis 3.4
- Djibouti 2.5
- Ecuador 2.2
  - Venezuelan refugees 2.2
  - Venezuela Regional Crisis 3.6
- El Salvador 2.2
  - Complex crisis 2.2
- Guatemala 2.8
  - Complex crisis 2.8
- Honduras 2.8
  - Complex crisis 2.8
- Jordan 2.2
  - Syrian refugees 2.2
  - Syrian Regional Crisis 4.2
- Lebanon 2.6
  - Syrian refugees 2.6
  - Syrian Regional Crisis 4.2
- Myanmar 3.0
- Nigeria 3.0
- Peru 2.3
  - Venezuelan refugees 2.3
  - Venezuela Regional Crisis 3.6
- Thailand 2.5
- Turkey 2.6
- Uganda 2.8
  - Refugees 2.8
Low Severity
Countries Score ../5
- Bahamas 1.8
  - Hurricane Dorian 1.8
- Brazil 1.8
  - Venezuelan refugees 1.8
  - Venezuela Regional Crisis 3.6
- Egypt 1.4
  - Syrian refugees 1.4
  - Syrian Regional Crisis 4.2
- Greece 1.7
  - Mixed Migration 1.7
  - Eastern Mediterranean Route
- Indonesia 1.8
- Iran 1.9
  - Floods in Sistan - Baluchestan 1.9
- Lesotho 1.9
  - Drought 1.9
  - Southern Africa Regional Food Security Crisis 3.7
- Mauritania 1.9
  - Food security 2.4
  - Malian refugees 1.9
- Rwanda 1.8
  - Refugees 1.8
- Senegal 1.8
  - Drought 1.8
- Trinidad and Tobago 1.4
  - Venezuelan refugees 1.4
  - Venezuela Regional Crisis 3.6
Very Low Severity
Countries Score ../5
- Costa Rica 1.0
  - Nicaraguan refugees 1.0
Undetermined Severity
Countries Score ../5

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Download our reports

Full severity index

05/03/2020

Check out the INFORM Severity Index dataset for February 2020!

Any questions? Please contact us info@acaps.org

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Quarterly Trends report

31/10/2019

ACAPS analysis team is working in identifying key changes and trends in the humanitarian situation during the data collection.

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Quarterly risks report

01/12/2019

The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.

The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.

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Humanitarian access

31/10/2019

The biannual publication Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts regarding humanitarian access. In this report we also compare the level of humanitarian access between the previous update and the current situation. The next publication is scheduled for the end of October.

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What is CrisisInSight?

25/02/2020

CrisisInSight is the new ACAPS analysis portfolio which enables you to compare the severity of crises globally as well as the level of humanitarian access, while providing trends analysis and a forward-looking scan for risks.

In order to measure the severity of a crisis, we use the INFORM Severity Index which brings together 31 core indicators, organised in three dimensions: impact, conditions of affected people, and complexity.

Some key finding from our latest data collection in January 2020:

133 crises have been identified in 70 countries, of which 34 are categorised as high severity

23 crises have shown no final score due to significant info gaps

Learn more about CrisisInSight