• Undetermined severity
  • Very low severity (0-1)
  • Low severity (1.1-2)
  • Medium severity (2.1-3)
  • High severity (3.1-4)
  • Very high severity (4.1-5)
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Risks

Yemen High

Failure of peace talks leading to prolonged urban fighting in Aden

Renewed street fighting in Aden could result in up to 4,500 civilian casualties over three months and cut access to services and markets for one million people.

RATIONALE

Forces loyal to the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) ousted the internationally recognised government of Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi, took control of all strategic positions in Aden and declared a new government on 10 August 2019 after four days of intense street battles that left 40 people dead and 260 injured....

Syria High

Full-scale offensive on northwest Syria leads to displacement of millions, a high number of civilian casualties, and severe humanitarian needs

A full-scale offensive on opposition-held northwest Syria is looming, following conflict escalation between the Government of Syria (GoS) and opposition forces. Fighting in southern Idleb and northern Hama governorates intensified in January and has further escalated since April, when regime forces launched a series of barrel bomb attacks and artillery strikes on essential infrastructure, aiming to regain control over strategic points...

Venezuela High

Hyperinflation, drought, and a deteriorating political situation generates increased needs and further displacement

Venezuela’s economy is expected to continue spiralling, with inflation predicted to reach 10,000,000% by the end of 2019. The deepening political and socio-economic crisis within the country has led to the collapse of services, deterioration of health, food security, and nutrition among the population, and one of the biggest mass displacements in South America’s history. 2.7 million people have fled the country since 2014 and the number is expected to reach 5.3 million by the end of 2019. Tensions between Maduro’s government and the opposition escalated in the beginning of 2019. There is a risk that pressure from international...

Somalia Medium

Drought as a result of the poor rains followed by a harsh dry season leads to increased levels of food insecurity

Recurrent droughts have left people with unmet humanitarian needs, compounded by the armed conflict. Across much of Somalia, the 2018 Deyr rainy season (October-December) was below average, and the Jilaal dry season (January-March) has been harsher than average. Dry weather conditions and relatively high temperatures prevail and little rainfall is forecast in the coming weeks.?Pasture and water availability are already deteriorating, particularly in the...

Ethiopia Medium

Escalation and spread of intercommunal violence leads to increased displacement and humanitarian needs

Conflict-driven displacement increased throughout 2018, bringing the total of IDPs to nearly 3 million, up from 1.1 million at end of 2017 ?. Conflict has continued and there is a significant risk it will increase as a result of at least three factors. First, local elections scheduled for mid-2019 risk inflaming already high intercommunal tensions by spurring...

Afghanistan Medium

Escalation of conflict amid fragile peace process leads to displacement and civilian casualties

Peace talks between the US and the Taliban have seen some progress in 2019, most notably a draft agreement on the timeline for US troop withdrawal and the Taliban’s commitment to prevent militants from attacking US targets from Afghanistan.? Conceding to a potential ceasefire agreement would likely undermine the Taliban’s favourable...

Myanmar Medium

Escalation of conflict between Myanmar Army and Arakan Army group in Rakhine

Episodes of violence between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army (AA) group have continued, as have the related flows of internal displacement.? While not a major escalation since the publication of ACAPS’ previous risk report, the clashes between the two...

Mali Medium

Escalation of inter-communal violence in central Mali leads to increased internal displacement and humanitarian needs

Violence has spiked significantly in Central Mali since the beginning of 2019, fueled by the spread of radical Islamist organisations and intercommunal tensions – particularly between members of the Dogon and Fulani ethnic groups. The Dogon, who are mostly farmers, and Fulani, who are mostly herders, have periodically fought one another over land, water, and other resources, though the frequency and intensity of violence has increased dramatically in recent months. In March, Dogon militias raided Ogossagou, a Fulani village in Mopti region, killing at least 157 people....

DRC Medium

Gaps in Ebola response and population movement lead to the spreading of Ebola to new territories and neighbouring countries

On 2 June 2019, the Ebola outbreak in northeast DRC surpassed 2,000 cases including nearly 1,400 deaths.? The rapid increase in case numbers since late March has been linked to widespread insecurity resulting from some 120 active armed groups in the area and violence against response workers by armed groups and villagers, that lead to temporary suspension of...

Burkina Faso Medium

Government loses control of southwestern and eastern regions, leading to internal displacement and increased food insecurity

Internal conflict has increased in the north (Sahel, Nord and Centre-Nord regions) in 2019, with a 5,700% increase in civilian fatalities compared to the first half of 2018 and 123,000 people newly displaced since January. ? Since April, fighting has intensified between Islamist armed groups and different civilian tribes, along with more targeted attacks against Christian communities and schools....

Iraq Medium

Heightened tensions between Iran and US and their allies spark conflict between regional proxies in the Middle East leading to new humanitarian needs in the region

A series of events have raised fears of an escalation of proxy conflict between the US, Iran and their allies in the Middle East. Countries particularly at risk of being affected are Iraq and Yemen as well as, to a smaller extent, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iran itself.

Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf in recent weeks have provoked threatening rhetoric between the US and Iran.? The US blamed the incidents on Iran and deployed 2,...

Indonesia Medium

Increasing violence and military presence in Papua province leads to further internal displacement and humanitarian needs

A spike in violence has occurred in Papua province in recent months, in the context of a long-running separatist movement. Clashes between armed separatist groups and the military have led to a violent crackdown against both separatists and civilians. The Indonesian government also continues to suppress peaceful dissent by Papuan activists....

Mozambique Medium

Violence increases in Cabo Delgado resulting in displacement, protection needs, and deteriorated access to food and livelihoods

Islamic extremists have been launching violent attacks on civilians in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since October 2017, resulting in at least 2,000 people displaced, nearly 300 people killed, and more than 1,000 properties destroyed. ...

Chad Low

Increased violence between government forces and non-state armed groups in Tibesti leads to worsening of food and protection needs

Violent conflict has spiked in Tibesti since late 2018, involving a wide variety of different groups including the Chadian military, opposition factions such as the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic (CCMSR) and Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) which seek to overthrow the government, as well as local self-defense militias. In January 2019, several dozen people were killed following clashes in a gold mining area which pitted CCMSR soldiers against Sudanese militias aligned with the Chadian government.?...

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Download our reports
Full severity index
11/09/2019

Check the Global Crisis Severity Index dataset for August 2019!

Any questions? Please contact us info@acaps.org

Quarterly Trends report
05/04/2019

ACAPS analysis team identifies main changes in the humanitarian situation during the data collection, and issues a trends report on a quarterly basis. The next publication is scheduled for the end of July.

Quarterly risks report
20/06/2019

The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. The next publication is scheduled for the end of September.

The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.

Humanitarian access
01/04/2019

The biannual publication Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts regarding humanitarian access. In this report we also compare the level of humanitarian access between the previous update and the current situation. The next publication is scheduled for the end of October.

What is CrisisInSight?

CrisisInSight is the new ACAPS analysis portfolio which enables you to compare the severity of crises globally as well as the level of humanitarian access, while providing trends analysis and a forward-looking scan for risks.
 
In order to measure the severity of a crisis, we use the INFORM Global Crisis Severity Index (GCSI) which brings together 31 core indicators, organised in three dimensions: impact, conditions of affected people, and complexity.

Some key finding from our latest data collection in August 2019:

114 crises have been identified in 66 countries of which 34 are categorised as internal displacement 

15 crises have shown no final score due to significant info gaps

 

Learn more about CrisisInSight