Significant escalation of conflict leads to increased displacement, attacks in urban areas, and reduced humanitarian access, as well as a spike in the number of confinement events and attacks on social leaders
Risk rationale
Following the demobilisation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-EP), many non-state armed groups in Colombia have fragmented and created new alliances. New armed groups have emerged along the border with Venezuela in areas such as Catatumbo, and along main narcotrafficking routes including northern Antioquia, Choco, and the wider Pacific Coast region. Fighting for territorial control and control over irregular economies such as drug production and trafficking has intensified. The presence and involvement of Mexican drug cartels in alliances and rivalries add further complexity to the...
Worsening living conditions and reduced access to humanitarian assistance and basic services lead to a spike in displacement to Colombia
Risk rationale
In December 2020, after winning 91% of seats in the National Assembly with a low voter turnout, President Nicolás Maduro’s government gained formal control of all major political institutions in Venezuela. The post-electoral period has left the
opposition weakened and holding very limited political power.? It has also been accompanied by an increase in harassment and intimidation of civil society organisations (CSOs) and groups, NGOs, and media...
Militarisation of political space and the public sphere, and the escalation of violence by the military junta, result in greater access constraints, worsening of needs, and heightened protection concerns, particularly for ethnic minority groups
Risk Rationale
On 1 February, the Myanmar military staged a coup for the third time in 35 years and ordered a year-long state of emergency under Sections 417 and 418(a) of the 2008 Constitution, allegingmass fraud in the November 2020 elections.? The military junta established the State Administrative Council as a means to legitimise the coup....
Moderate conflict escalation in Donbas leads to casualties and an increase in humanitarian needs
Risk rationale
The ceasefire agreement reached in July 2020 between Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine led to a significant decrease in the level of conflict.? Low-level conflict continues however, and the number of ceasefire violations has been increasing since December 2020 - with a 22% increase in violations reported in January 2021 compared to December 2020. More than 80% of the ceasefire...
New legislation that highly limits humanitarian operations adds to unmet needs and worsens humanitarian conditions
Risk rationale
In September 2018, as a result of ongoing demonstrations against the Nicaraguan government, a statement issued by the national police prohibited anti-government protests.? This prohibition remains in place as at 25 March. Since September 2018, the government has issued more laws that considerably restrict the exercise of human rights and forms of opposition and dissent, resulting in the government gaining more political control....
Subsidies for basic goods are removed, leading to a marked deterioration of economic conditions and food insecurity, and an increase in political violence
Risk rationale
People in Lebanon have suffered from mounting public debt and currency devaluation since October 2019. The compounded effects of economic deterioration and a negative perception of the response to the Beirut blast in August 2020 led to the
government’s resignation on 10 August. The government of Hassan Diab remains in a caretaker capacity until a new cabinet is formed. The formation of a new government has been stalled however, hampering any political or economic reforms....
Disruption of the political process leads to conflict escalation and an increase in humanitarian needs
Risk rationale
A ceasefire agreement between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Government of National Accord (GNA) was reached in October 2020, following conflict escalation around Tripoli between April 2019-June 2020. Conflict levels have decreased, but the agreement is very general and open to competing interpretations, misunderstandings, or intentional ambiguity - which are likely to undermine the peace process.?
A new interim executive authority was elected by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in February 2021 with a mandate to...
Localised fighting aggravates existing protection concerns and results in increased protection needs and limited access to services
Risk rationale
Clashes erupted between Morocco and the independence-seeking Sahrawi movement, the Polisario Front, over the contested territory of Western Sahara in late 2020 for the first time in 29 years. On 13 November 2020, Moroccan soldiers entered the UN-monitored buffer zone between Morocco and Polisario-controlled areas, violating the 1991 ceasefire agreement. They aimed to re-open the Guerguerat border crossing - the main route connecting Morocco with Mauritania - which had been blocked by supporters of the Polisario Front for three weeks. The Polisario Front accused the Moroccan security forces of shooting...
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The INFORM Severity Index summarises a wide range of already existing, quantitative information about crisis severity and presents it in a format that can be used more easily in decision-making. It aggregates information from a range of credible, publicly available sources. Human analysts collect the data and enter it into the Index.
Any questions? Please contact us info@acaps.org
ACAPS analysis team is working in identifying key changes and trends in the humanitarian situation during the data collection.
The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.
The biannual publication Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts regarding humanitarian access. This report centers upon countries in which ACAPS had identified humanitarian crises. The analysis includes focused narrative and analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the different aspects of humanitarian access.
CrisisInSight is the new ACAPS analysis portfolio which enables you to compare the severity of crises globally as well as the level of humanitarian access, while providing trends analysis and a forward-looking scan for risks.
In order to measure the severity of a crisis, we use the INFORM Severity Index which brings together 31 core indicators, organised in three dimensions: impact, conditions of affected people, and complexity.
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