Financial crisis leads to reduced income and purchasing power, resulting in increased humanitarian needs in Afghanistan
Rationale
In mid-August, the Taliban took control of Kabul and consolidated power over most of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals?. The new government was announced on 9 September. The cabinet consists mostly of Taliban representatives, some of whom are sanctioned by the US and UN...
Intensified conflict in the Tigray region, a sustained humanitarian blockade, and the main harvest being missed for the second time result in mass starvation and deaths
Rationale
Conflict in the Tigray region has displaced over two million people and led to a humanitarian crisis since November 2020. From the start of the conflict until June 2021, heavy fighting in the region has disrupted the 2020/2021 meher harvest season and market functionality, resulting in increased food prices?. The destruction and looting of food stocks, livestock, and farming equipment have...
An increase in attacks targeting civilians leads to displacement and further deterioration of humanitarian conditions in the Tillabéri region
Rationale
Between January–August 2021, at least 424 civilians were killed in the northern Tillabéri region of Niger, in the border area with Mali and Burkina Faso. Such toll is higher than the number of civilian casualties in all of 2020?. With the loss of land and personnel in central Mali during 2020, following Barkhane forces’ airstrikes and clashes with the Support Group for Islam and Muslims, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) group began taking control of territories in western Niger...
Government crackdown on the opposition and economic uncertainty surrounding the upcoming elections result in a spike in the number of Nicaraguan migrants and asylum seekers with food, health, and protection needs
Rationale
On 7 November 2021, Nicaragua will elect the president and members of the National Assembly. President Daniel Ortega is running for a fourth term. Since the beginning of June, the Ortega administration has jailed or put under house arrest seven opposition presidential candidates and dozens of political activists and civil society leaders...
Increased displacement into surrounding countries, particularly Pakistan and Iran, results in increased needs and heightened protection concerns
Rationale
The Taliban takeover is likely to increase humanitarian needs in Afghanistan, driving internal and external displacement. The economic and political instability, insecurity, and the limited availability of legal migration routes are likely to push people towards irregular routes to facilitate entry to Iran and Pakistan, whether for transit or long-term stay?...
Increasingly intense and widespread conflict in Afar and Amhara causes mass displacement, access constraints, food insecurity, and protection concerns
Rationale
The conflict, which has been active in the Tigray region since November 2020, began spreading into northern Amhara and northwestern Afar regions in mid-July?. As at 1 September, fighting in these two regions has displaced more than 370,000 people...
Worsening insecurity and deteriorating living conditions in Haiti increase cross-border movement in Central America, resulting in high food, shelter, and protection needs for displaced populations
Rationale
Since the beginning of 2021, clashes between rival gangs in Haiti have increased insecurity and displaced more than 19,000 people in Port-au-Prince. Although clashes have decreased since August – when aid organisations negotiated a humanitarian corridor to send aid to southern Haiti after the 14 August earthquake – gangs continue to fight and patrol the streets of Port-auPrince. This fighting poses a risk for IDPs wanting to return home...
Conflict in Mogadishu between pro-government and pro-opposition military forces and increased Al-Shabaab attacks result in displacement and humanitarian access constraints
Rationale
In Somalia, failure to hold general elections by February 2021 resulted in disagreements between the Government and the opposition. In April 2021, the Somali Federal Parliament extended President Farmaajo’s term by two years, which led to armed conflict in the capital, Mogadishu, between pro-government and pro-opposition military forces. Inter-clan tensions have historically been a significant issue in Somalia, affecting the cohesion of the Somali army, particularly in periods of political instability...
Escalation of conflict between Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces and ENDF in Al Fashaga district, Gedaref state, results in violence against civilians, displacement, disruption of agricultural activities, and protection concerns
Rationale
The Al Fashaga district is an agricultural area disputed between Sudan and Ethiopia since 1902. Sudanese troops moved into the district in December 2020 and took control of over 90% of the land, evicting Ethiopian farmers and disrupting a land-use agreement that had been in place for over a decade?.
Resident Sudanese and Ethiopian farmers depend on the Al Fashaga district for agricultural livelihoods and goods...
Prolonged sociopolitical unrest leads to violent protests and localised violence resulting in protection and human rights concerns, humanitarian access impediments, and disruption of the COVID-19 response
Rationale
Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament, revoked legislators’ parliamentary immunity, and dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi on 25 July in response to increasing protests against the failure of the COVID-19 response and the economic crisis. This move, labelled by the opponents of the President as a coup, received some public support from the part of the society calling for political reforms in Tunisia, which was heavily affected by the COVID-19 crisis. In 2020, the GDP contracted by almost 9%, and unemployment among young people increased to over 40%...
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The INFORM Severity Index summarises a wide range of already existing, quantitative information about crisis severity and presents it in a format that can be used more easily in decision-making. It aggregates information from a range of credible, publicly available sources. Human analysts collect the data and enter it into the Index.
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ACAPS analysis team is working in identifying key changes and trends in the humanitarian situation during the data collection.
The ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences.
ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts to operate. More than 60 countries are not receiving the humanitarian assistance they need because of access constraints. Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Spain, Indonesia, Italy, and Timor-Leste have entered the ranking since the last Humanitarian Access Overview released in December 2020.
CrisisInSight is the ACAPS analysis portfolio which enables you to compare the severity of crises globally as well as the level of humanitarian access, while providing trends analysis and a forward-looking scan for risks.
In order to measure the severity of a crisis, we use the INFORM Severity Index which brings together 31 core indicators, organised in three dimensions: impact, conditions of affected people, and complexity.
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