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Country analysis

Cuba

Cuba faces a protracted humanitarian situation driven by a prolonged economic downturn, recurrent climatic shocks, high inflation, and chronic electricity shortages. These overlapping crises have weakened public services and livelihoods, prompting the emigration of an estimated one to two million people or roughly 10–18% of the population since 2022.

In 2026, two islandwide power outages have disrupted electricity for more than ten million people, affecting hospitals, water supply, and food distribution. These outages have compounded the effects of a major blackout in late 2025, which had already curtailed access to health and social services.

Hurricane Melissa in October 2025 further strained recovery efforts, affecting over two million people, destroying homes and public infrastructure, and damaging about 160,000 hectares of crops across Camagüey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba provinces. The combined economic and climatic pressures are deepening people’s reliance on remittances and limiting access to essential goods and services.

(IFRC 24/12/2025, UN 26/02/2026, BBC 23/03/2026)

Cuba faces a protracted humanitarian situation driven by a prolonged economic downturn, recurrent climatic shocks, high inflation, and chronic electricity shortages. These overlapping crises have weakened public services and livelihoods, prompting the emigration of an estimated one to two million people or roughly 10–18% of the population since 2022.

In 2026, two islandwide power outages have disrupted electricity for more than ten million people, affecting hospitals, water supply, and food distribution. These outages have compounded the effects of a major blackout in late 2025, which had already curtailed access to health and social services.

Hurricane Melissa in October 2025 further strained recovery efforts, affecting over two million people, destroying homes and public infrastructure, and damaging about 160,000 hectares of crops across Camagüey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba provinces. The combined economic and climatic pressures are deepening people’s reliance on remittances and limiting access to essential goods and services.

(IFRC 24/12/2025, UN 26/02/2026, BBC 23/03/2026)

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Latest updates on country situation

23 September 2026

On 18 September, the entire population (9.4 million people) experienced the seventh nationwide blackout in 2026 before power was restored on 19 September. The outage stems from reduced energy production caused by shortages of imported oil after the US ban in January 2026, compounded by an underinvested grid and significant electricity production deficits. Repeated and prolonged power outages are disrupting water pumping, deteriorating neonatal care, and causing solid waste accumulation and extended water-cycle delays, elevating the risk of disease outbreaks. (UNCT Cuba 11/09/2026, France 24 21/09/2026, Reuters 18/09/2026)

21 May 2026

Sustained oil import shortages since early 2026 have triggered at least four nationwide blackouts and multiple large-scale provincial power outages, causing the collapse of transportation, energy, and food infrastructure, all critically dependent on fuel for production and maintenance. By April 2026, the cumulative impact of fuel shortages had directly or indirectly affected the entire population of 10 million people. These developments are unfolding while the US increases its political pressure against the Government by conditioning the delivery of humanitarian assistance on internal political change and the removal from power of most of the current government members. (FT 14/05/2026, DW 19/05/2026, The Atlantic 19/05/2026)

current crises
in Cuba

CUB004 - Complex Crisis

Last updated 30/09/2026

Drivers

Cyclone
Political/economic crisis

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

6.9 High

Access constraints

3.0

Analysis products
on Cuba

Cuba: impact of the oil blockade on humanitarian needs

17 April 2026

Cuba: impact of the oil blockade on humanitarian needs

DOCUMENT / PDF / 746 KB

Since early January 2026, Cuba has experienced a rapid deterioration in fuel availability and a shortage of critical supplies, especially food and medicine. An estimated nine million people have been affected, as fuel scarcity has disrupted electricity generation and transport systems in all regions of the country.

Humanitarian access
Cuba: anticipated impact of Hurricane Melissa

29 October 2025

Cuba: anticipated impact of Hurricane Melissa

DOCUMENT / PDF / 456 KB

Hurricane Melissa takes place during a particularly severe storm season. Since May 2025, the NOAA has forecast an above-average hurricane season, predicting between 13–19 named storms with winds of 39mph or higher. 

Natural hazards
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