Skip to main content

Country analysis

Cuba


Cuba faces a protracted humanitarian situation driven by a prolonged economic downturn, recurrent climatic shocks, high inflation, and chronic electricity shortages. These overlapping crises have weakened public services and livelihoods, prompting the emigration of an estimated one to two million people or roughly 10–18% of the population since 2022.

In 2026, two islandwide power outages have disrupted electricity for more than ten million people, affecting hospitals, water supply, and food distribution. These outages have compounded the effects of a major blackout in late 2025, which had already curtailed access to health and social services.

Hurricane Melissa in October 2025 further strained recovery efforts, affecting over two million people, destroying homes and public infrastructure, and damaging about 160,000 hectares of crops across Camagüey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba provinces. The combined economic and climatic pressures are deepening people’s reliance on remittances and limiting access to essential goods and services.

(IFRC 24/12/2025, UN 26/02/2026, BBC 23/03/2026)

Cuba faces a protracted humanitarian situation driven by a prolonged economic downturn, recurrent climatic shocks, high inflation, and chronic electricity shortages. These overlapping crises have weakened public services and livelihoods, prompting the emigration of an estimated one to two million people or roughly 10–18% of the population since 2022.

In 2026, two islandwide power outages have disrupted electricity for more than ten million people, affecting hospitals, water supply, and food distribution. These outages have compounded the effects of a major blackout in late 2025, which had already curtailed access to health and social services.

Hurricane Melissa in October 2025 further strained recovery efforts, affecting over two million people, destroying homes and public infrastructure, and damaging about 160,000 hectares of crops across Camagüey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba provinces. The combined economic and climatic pressures are deepening people’s reliance on remittances and limiting access to essential goods and services.

(IFRC 24/12/2025, UN 26/02/2026, BBC 23/03/2026)

Latest updates on country situation

21 May 2026

Sustained oil import shortages since early 2026 have triggered at least four nationwide blackouts and multiple large-scale provincial power outages, causing the collapse of transportation, energy, and food infrastructure, all critically dependent on fuel for production and maintenance. By April 2026, the cumulative impact of fuel shortages had directly or indirectly affected the entire population of 10 million people. These developments are unfolding while the US increases its political pressure against the Government by conditioning the delivery of humanitarian assistance on internal political change and the removal from power of most of the current government members. (FT 14/05/2026, DW 19/05/2026, The Atlantic 19/05/2026)

current crises
in Cuba

CUB004 - Complex Crisis

Last updated 27/04/2026


Drivers

Cyclone
Political/economic crisis

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

6.6 High

Access constraints

0.0

Active risks

Active
High
Date
04-02-2026
Country
Cuba

Worsening energy shortages and U.S. pressure lead to essential service disruptions and rising humanitarian needs in Cuba

Risk type
Marked deterioration in an existing crisis

Analysis products
on Cuba

Cuba: impact of the oil blockade on humanitarian needs

17 April 2026

Cuba: impact of the oil blockade on humanitarian needs

DOCUMENT / PDF / 746 KB

Since early January 2026, Cuba has experienced a rapid deterioration in fuel availability and a shortage of critical supplies, especially food and medicine. An estimated nine million people have been affected, as fuel scarcity has disrupted electricity generation and transport systems in all regions of the country.

Humanitarian access
Cuba: anticipated impact of Hurricane Melissa

29 October 2025

Cuba: anticipated impact of Hurricane Melissa

DOCUMENT / PDF / 456 KB

Hurricane Melissa takes place during a particularly severe storm season. Since May 2025, the NOAA has forecast an above-average hurricane season, predicting between 13–19 named storms with winds of 39mph or higher. 

Natural hazards
View more