On 10 June 2022, ACAPS published an anticipatory analysis of the prospects for the deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Sri Lanka. Some of the sections are still relevant. Other elements of the analysis have started materialising. This report provides an update of the previous analysis with information available from 10 June to 17 July.
Sri Lanka faces an economic crisis partly resulting from its twin deficit economy. A twin economy indicates that its domestic expenditure exceeds its national income, making it prone to external debt and reliance on foreign capital flows. The economic crisis is affecting the daily life of the population. Hospitals have reported shortages of medicines, price increases have made food unaffordable for part of the population, and some people have already started to migrate to India to escape the effects of the crisis. Food production in 2022 has also been lower than usual. The measures that the Government has announced to alleviate the crisis in the long term will produce shortterm effects, such as increasing inflation and depreciating the currency. Political instability may also increase.
The Southwest Monsoon is expected to arrive over Sri Lanka in mid to late May 2020. Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Kegalle districts are at very high risk of monsoon impact. According to the National Department of Meteorology, an estimated 35,000 to 50,000 families may be displaced, based on analysis of previous floods and landslides. Additionally, Colombo and Kalutara districts are identified as high-risk areas for COVID-19 outbreak, while Gampaha and Puttalam are at moderate risk.Additionally, Colombo and Kalutara districts are identified as high-risk areas for COVID-19 outbreak, while Gampaha and Puttalam are at moderate risk.
A rainfall deficit in the first half of the year has resulted in drought in most parts of Sri Lanka. As of 12 August, around 660,000 people have been affected across 18 districts. The worst affected districts are Batticaloa, Jaffna, Ampara, Mannar, Mullaitivu and Moneragala, with Mannar and Mullaitivu, both in Northern province, registering the highest percentages of affected people in their respective districts. Food and livelihood needs as well as WASH needs are reported. Farmer families in Northern province are particularly vulnerable.
Heavy rains in southwestern Sri Lanka from 25 May triggered flooding that affected 15 districts, of which Galle, Kalutara, Matara, and Ratnapura were the most severely affected. Over 588,000 people have been affected, 180 killed, and 110 are missing. Landslides and flooding have constrained access to heavily affected areas. An estimated 40% of those in affected areas do not have access to piped water, and are therefore extremely vulnerable to waterborne diseases such as cholera or diarrhoea.