A presidential decree on 5 August 2019 revoked Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution, which granted Jammu and Kashmir state special autonomous status. The move stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its political autonomy and was accompanied by a complete lockdown, unprecedented in Kashmir’s history, that began in August 2019 and continued through March 2020. During the lockdown, schools were closed, access to healthcare was severely disrupted, livelihoods reliant on internet connection were brought to a standstill, and protection risks increased. While the strongest measures have eased, including re-opening of schools and restoration of internet in 2020, people in Kashmir continue to suffer the effects of the lockdown.
ACAPS' Global Risk Analysis outlines a number of key contexts where a notable deterioration may occur within the next six months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. ACAPS analysts conduct daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
For the next six months, ACAPS has identified risks in the following contexts: Burkina Faso, Colombia, Ethiopia, Honduras, India, Libya, Maynmar, Nigeria, and Yemen.
The objective of ACAPS’ Global Risk Analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness, which should improve response.
Each year we take stock of our work and put together an annual report – you may have noticed we have published a variety of formats and layouts over the years, very much reflecting our own internal learning and evolution. This year we chose to provide four different perspectives on the global humanitarian situation. Within these pages you will find a comparative analyses of 14 of the major humanitarian situations with respect to the affected populations, people in need and humanitarian access; an analysis of three highly complex and evolving regional crises the sector grappled with over the year; and a spotlight on three severe crises that did not get sufficient attention in 2019. Finally, as the year comes to a close, we have identified a number of risks that may lead to a significant deterioration of particular crises in 2020. We hope you will find these perspectives informative and useful in your planning for 2020.
Heavy rainfall due to the beginning of the 2019 monsoon season triggered severe flooding in northeast India. Flooding affected Assam state since 8 July but worsened considerably since 12 July, affecting 4.3 million people in 30 of 33 districts (as of 15 July). At least 83,000 people are sheltered in approximately 500 government-established relief camps and centres, with more people displaced to makeshift shelters. At least 11 people have lost their lives while the risk of more flooding and landslides persists. Urgent shelter, NFIs, food and WASH needs have been reported.
On 3 May, Cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri District, bringing heavy rain to Odisha and neighbouring states, winds reaching a maximum sustained wind speed of approximately 240 km/h, and a powerful storm surge in coastal areas. Despite a large-scale evacuation effort carried out by the Indian government, at least 42 fatalities and 160 injuries have been attributed the cyclone. Extensive damage has been reported to houses and farmland, as well as to transportation, communication, water, end electricity infrastructure, particularly in Odisha. Shelter, food, livelihoods, WASH, and health needs are present in many affected areas and may persist despite active response efforts carried out by Indian authorities.
Tropical cyclone Titli made landfall on the south-west coast of Gopalpur in Andhra Pradesh in the early morning of 11 October, before moving north-west, crossing north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha with maximum winds of approximately 165 kmph. Some 360,000 people, particularly from low-lying and coastal areas, were evacuated prior to the cyclone, but only 9,000 were still in relief centres as of 16 October. Strong winds have damaged approximately 29,000 houses and disrupted roads, communication and electricity supply across Odisha state and Andhra Pradesh states. The most severely affected areas are Ganjam, Gajapati and Rayagada districts in Odisha and Srikakulam, Vizianagaram districts in Andhra Pradesh.
The southwestern state of Kerala has been facing the worst monsoon season since 1924, causing severe flooding and landslides especially in the northern part of the state, where eight districts remain on red alert. As of 14 August, over 60,000 people have been evacuated to some 500 relief camps across the state, and 39 deaths have been reported. Beginning 8 August and as 14 August, this is the second major flood in Kerala this monsoon season, and the impact is greater than in July, when over 34,000 people were displaced in 265 relief camps. The affected population is in need of food, shelter, NFI, WASH, and health assistance. Emergency national and international response has been prompt and coordinated; however, longer-term assistance is likely to be needed in the aftermath of the floods.
India’s northeastern state of Assam has been hard-hit by monsoon rains and flooding beginning of July. Flooding worsened in Assam on 2 July, when new areas were submerged by the rising waters of the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries. As of 5 July, official figures show over 390,000 people have been affected in over 850 villages across 15 out of 32 districts.
The northeastern state of Assam has been particularly hard-hit by monsoon rains and flooding this season. Rainfall this year has been 20% above average in some areas of India, including in Assam.
Flooding worsened in Assam on 22 July, when new areas were submerged by the rising waters of the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries. As of 1 August, official figures show over 1.1 million people and over 3,300 villages across 21 out of 32 districts are affected. At least 32 people have died, most since 22 July.
Several days of heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu in southern India has led to flash floods particularly affecting Cuddalore district. As of 14 November, 56 people have been reported killed and at least 29,000 people have been evacuated, the majority from rural areas. The total number of people affected is not known.
Roads and bridges have been damaged, and several villages are reported to be cut off. Power and communication infrastructure has also been affected. Tens of thousands of houses have been damaged or destroyed.