The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Over 22,370 migrants have passed through Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) since the beginning of 2018, compared to 1,166 in 2017. Migrants are living in sub-standard conditions ahead of freezing winter temperatures. Shelter and NFIs are the most urgent needs.
Continuous, heavy rainfall, commencing on 13 May, has resulted in extensive flooding in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and Croatia.
Three months’ worth of rain fell in only three days; it is the heaviest rainfall in BiH since records began in 1894. In Serbia, more than 1.6 million people are affected by the floods (22% of the population). The most affected areas include Belgrade City and the municipalities of Obrenovac, Lazarevac and Grocka. In BiH, an estimated 1.5 million people are affected (39% of the population). The most affected areas are Bosanski Šamac, Odžak, Orašje, Doboj, Bijeljina, Brčko, Maglaj.
In Croatia, 38,000 people are affected. The most affected towns and villages are Gunja, Rajevo Selo, Račinovci, Posavski Podgajci, Vrbanja, Drenovci, Strošinci, Đurići and Bošnjaci.
As of 22 May, more than 120,000 households in Serbia are without electricity, and as of 19 May, more than one million people do not have access to water in BiH.
3,500km (2,175 miles) of roads in Serbia need repair. Schools remain closed in the affected areas.
The economic impact is enormous. Preliminary estimates show recovery costs of more than one billion euros (USD 1.4 billion) in Serbia and hundreds of millions of euros for BiH. In Croatia, damage to agriculture alone is expected to reach at least 30 million euros