• Crisis Severity ?
    1.2
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    1.6
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    0.9
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    1.4
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
     
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 2,988,000 Total population [?]
  • 27,000 People displaced [?]

Overview

29/01/2023

Nagorno-Karabakh has been a long-time disputed area between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The war that lasted from 1988 to 1994 killed more than 25,000 soldiers and civilians and resulted in the displacement over one million people ?.

In September 2020, heavy fighting broke out again between Azeri and Armenian forces in and around the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict lasted six weeks, until Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a Russia-brokered ceasefire. The conflict resulted in 140 civilian deaths, over 560 civilians injured, and over 90,000 displaced (88% being women and children). In addition, widespread destruction to civilian infrastructure, and disruption occurred to services in both countries?.

As  at  December 2021, over 20,000 people were still displaced and registered as “refugee-like” in Armenia ?. Shelter, household items, employment, and food are key priority needs for people living in refugee-like conditions. The winter season adds extra pressure on the refugee-like population because of the additional expenses required, such as heating ?.

On 27 September 2022, renewed hostilities between the two countries in Nagorno-Karabakh caused 207 people to die or go missing. The fighting, which lasted one day, displaced some 7,600 people. It also resulted in 92 homes, two schools, and one hospital damaged?. The conflict in September 2022 affected mainly people living in the three regions (marzes) of Syunik, Gegharkunik and Vayots Dzor in Armenia ?.

Nagorno-Karabakh was recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is de facto controlled by an ethnic Armenian administration. Under the ceasefire provisions, Armenia returned Aghdam, Kelbajar, and Lachin districts, as well as parts of Gazakh district, to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan maintains control over the territory gained in Nagorno-Karabakh during the latest conflict. Russian peacekeepers were deployed in the remaining areas of Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor that connects Stepanakert to Armenia ?.

 

Latest Developments

24/01/2023

Since 12 December 2022, the Lachin corridor, which connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, has been blocked by Azerbaijanis environmental activist who are demanding access to mining sites in Karabakh. Shortages in essential medicine and food are reported due to the blockade, affecting those living Nagorno-Karabakh, largely ethnic Armenians?.

For more information, you can read our report on the Lachin corridor blockade here.

Risk

Escalation of conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh triggered by the Lachin corridor blockade results in population displacement and increased humanitarian needs Latest update: 29/03/2023

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major