Scenarios: Displacement and access in Afghanistan

Considering a range of variables that affect Afghans’ decision to move and the ability of humanitarian organisations to deliver assistance, the four scenarios presented in this report illustrate how displacement and humanitarian access within Afghanistan might evolve until March 2023, as well as the potential humanitarian consequences.

The primary purpose of the report is to support strategic planning, create awareness, and promote discussion among humanitarian policymakers, practitioners, and donors through an understanding of the possible ways in which humanitarian needs may end up being met or not – whether intentionally or unintentionally. The interpretation and/or use of the scenarios remains the responsibility of each agency/actor.