Refugee/Migrant Crisis in Europe: Scenarios

ACAPS and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have produced a new set of Central and West Mediterranean migration scenarios, outlining possible developments in migration via Libya, Italy, Spain and other transit countries over the next six months.

Following scenario-building workshops in Budapest in March, four scenarios were identified:

-              Slight increase in migration via North Africa to Europe

-              Large increase in migration in readmissions

-              Enforced closure of central Mediterranean route

-              Improved internal security in Libya

The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.