Movement back to Syria: scenarios

ACAPS and the Mixed Migration Platform have produced a new set of scenarios, outlining possible developments in Syria and neighbouring countries over the next nine months.

Following scenario-building workshops, five scenarios were identified:

1. Insecurity in Syria continues; low-level movement to Syria
2. Insecurity in Syria continues; movement to Syria increases
3. Security in Syria improves; movement to Syria increase
4. Insecurity increases; movement to Syria decreases
5. Sudden mass movement back to Syria

The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.