Covid-19: Scenarios
Created: 10/04/2020 +


Three scenarios have been developed to consider how the global humanitarian system will be impacted over the next six months in relation to COVID-19.

  • Scenario 1: Global containment of the pandemic; economic recovery starts in most high-income countries; containment measures drive poverty rates elsewhere.
  • Scenario 2: Virus is contained in most high-income countries; elsewhere the spread is slowed but with major outbreaks in middle- and low-income countries.
  • Scenario 3: Virus is largely not contained; second phase outbreaks occur; harsher and more austere containment measures enacted; serious economic decline.

The primary purpose is to inform strategic humanitarian decision-making through an understanding of the possible changes in needs for humanitarian assistance and possible constraints in meeting these needs.

To easily compare the three scenarios, ACAPS has prepared an excel table, which can be accessed HERE.