Afghanistan: scenarios

The four scenarios consider four different yet plausible futures for Afghanistan over the coming 20 months. These scenarios do not describe the imagined futures in detail but consider key differences in the governance, economic, and security environments and the extent to which and how people’s personal safety, livelihoods, and purchasing power might change. They are not forecasts; they describe situations that could occur and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario.