On 15 August 2021, the Taliban captured Kabul. In September 2021, ACAPS convened a group of experts and aid workers in a workshop to understand the many ways displacement and access could play out in Afghanistan over the following 18 months. The resulting scenarios were published in October 2021.
One year after the fall of Kabul, this report revisits and reassesses the four scenarios developed in October 2021 in light of the current context. It aims to highlight the key developments over the past year from a humanitarian perspective. It is not an in-depth analysis of the changes across the country.