24,354 people (3,080 households) have been affected by heavy winds and floods in seven regions of Burkina Faso. Eight have been killed and 54 injured. The most affected areas were Bissighin and Kilwin neighbourhoods in the capital Ouagadougou (Centre region), and Dallo department (Centre Ouest region). 1,184 people were also affected in Wendpoli in the Sahel region, where food insecurity is high. Significant property damage was reported, as well as food stocks and other material having been carried away by the floods. 2,430 people have been temporarily rehoused in schools. Rains are expected to continue until the end of August, and gaps have been identified in the response for food security, health, rehabilitation and protection. 

Socio-political tensions are rising in Burundi with the approach of parliamentary and presidential elections in May and June, and the constitutional court’s approval of President Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term. Mass protests organised by civil society and some opposition parties since 26 April have turned violent. As of 5 May, at least 13 individuals have been killed, more than a hundred injured, and at least 600 arrested, and nearly 39,100 have fled to neighbouring countries. Inter-ethnic tensions, a rift between the military and the police, and an existing challenging humanitarian situation are all potential aggravating factors. 

So far, clashes have taken place mostly in the capital Bujumbura and surrounding areas, but eight provinces have been identified as potential ‘hot spots’ for an election crisis and related violence. Young men and those seeking to flee the country are particularly vulnerable . 

The Zika virus epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean is most affecting Brazil, with over one million cases estimated. Colombia reports over 18,000 confirmed and 2,000 suspected cases and anticipates over 650,000. El Salvador reports over 6,000 suspected cases. Venezuela reports over 4,500 confirmed cases, however unofficial estimates are thought to be as high as 400,000. 

An alert to the first confirmed case of Zika virus in Brazil was issued in May 2015 by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). As of 1 February, Zika has been confirmed in 23 countries in South and Central America and the Caribbean. The spread of the disease is likely to continue as the vector species, the Aedes mosquito, is widely distributed in the region. 

On 1 February 2016 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Zika a public health emergency, following a significant increase in the number of reported cases since the start of the year. The last time WHO declared a global health emergency was during the Ebola outbreak. The current Zika outbreak is unlikely to present a crisis of the same scale; the declaration has been issued to fast-track aid and further research, particularly due to a potential link with neurological disorders and congenital birth defects. 

As of 16 November, close to 820,000 people have arrived in Europe by sea in 2015, including 673,916 to Greece, 142,400 to Italy, 2,797 to Spain and 105 to Malta. 85% of the arrivals are from the world’s top ten refugee-producing countries. 52% of the refugees are from Syria, 10% from Afghanistan, 6% from Iraq. As the sea route to Italy via North Africa is longer and more risky, and as the number of Syrians has increased, more people are travelling through Greece and then through the Balkans to reach northern and western Europe. The main pattern of movement is from Greece to the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) northwest through Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia towards Austria and Germany. 

Greece has received the highest number of refugees and asylum seekers in decades and, several months after the start of the crisis, the rate of people arriving continues to grow. Despite the onset of winter, the movement is not expected to decrease, and UNHCR anticipates up to 600,000 arrivals between November 2015 and February 2016. Very few recent arrivals are pursuing asylum in the Balkan countries. 

Humanitarian needs are driven by obstacles at the borders, overcrowded and expensive transportation, long waits for registration, tensions between host communities and refugees, the risk of exploitation by smugglers, as well as inadequate assistance and shelter. Local and international capacities are under strain, and the arrival of winter is expected to exacerbate needs. 

The closing of various borders in Europe is placing a further strain on the situation, and could result in people being stuck in transit facilities, leading to overcrowding. 

As of 17 July, 227 Palestinians have been killed, and 1,585 injured as a consequence of the hostilities. According to OCHA, nearly 80% of the casualties were civilians, of whom over a quarter were children.

Some 1,660 homes have either been destroyed or damaged, prompting the displacement of 9,900 individuals.

A further 22,600 residents of northern Gaza (mainly Beit Lahiye) have left their homes following IDF strike warnings, and now reside in over 21 UNRWA schools. 

Since 23 March, more 150,000 people have been displaced, over 1,000 were killed and 4,350 injured. Access conditions are severely restricted while urgent humanitarian needs are increasing. This adds to the already dire situation of 16 million people in need of assistance over a total population of 26 million. This represents 60% of the population. 

Access has deteriorated and led to significant shortages of fuel and electricity. These have affected the functioning of hospitals, the availability of drinking water and food.

19 out of 22 governorates are affected by the conflict, which has escalated since 23 March. Alliances are complex, at times transitory. Several local militias have supported the Government. Armed Sunni tribesmen and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have been fighting the Houthi advance, although AQAP continues to oppose the Government as well. 

On 26 March, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition launched air attacks. Nonetheless, Houthis continued advancing south. Airstrikes and fighting have continued unabated, particularly in the southern governorates, with no reported progress on a political settlement in the short term. 

As of 21 September, the estimated cumulative number of confirmed Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported by WHO in the three most affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) is 6,242, including 2,909 deaths. The ‘hidden caseload’, however, is unprecedentedly large, and these figures are believed to include only a fraction of all cases in this rapidly spreading epidemic. 

According to a WHO projection, the aggregate caseload of EVD could exceed 20,000 by early November. Other agencies project the possibility of more than ten times as many cases, use different assumptions such as transmission to other countries, and evolution of the virus towards easier transmission between people.

The humanitarian community is already overwhelmed with the management of the epidemic and is greatly challenged in facing all the implications of this unprecedented and complex regional crisis. The current outbreak in West Africa is by far the largest ever recorded, and already numbers more cases than all past Ebola epidemics combined. 26 million people are estimated to live in the three most-affected countries. The epidemic started in Guinea in December 2013 but was only identified in March, and spread to Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal and Nigeria.  

Around 22 million people are estimated to live in the three countries most affected by the Ebola epidemic, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. As of 3-4 November, the estimated cumulative number of confirmed Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported by WHO in the three most affected countries is 13,241 including 4,950 deaths. However, the numbers of registered cases and deaths seem to underestimate the real magnitude of the outbreak.

If not addressed in the coming weeks, the consequences of the outbreak will lead to long-lasting impacts on farmers' food livelihoods and household economies, resulting in a major food security crisis by March 2015. The most affected areas within each country are also the most agriculturally productive. Reduced food trade and rising prices, as well as expected reductions in domestic harvests, are all undermining a fragile food security situation.

Control measures implemented to contain the outbreak, such as border closures, quarantine, movement restrictions, curfews, have curtailed the movement and availability of food, goods, and services in the region, leading to panic buying, food shortages and increased basic food and commodity prices. Higher food prices and the loss of purchasing power mean an increasing number of vulnerable households are resorting to negative coping strategies in order to access food.

Food insecurity and lack of access to markets have been increasing community tensions. Lack of food in quarantined areas has led to violence.

A multidimensional and multi-sector approach is required to contain the outbreak and stabilise affected areas while safeguarding against a long-term food security crisis. 

Le nombre cumulé de cas d'Ebola signalés en Guinée, au Libéria et en Sierra Leone est de 23 694. Au 22 février, 9 589 personnes avaient succombé à la maladie. Il s'agit donc de la plus grande flambée d'Ebola de l'histoire. Depuis janvier 2015, le taux d'incidence de la maladie s'est stabilisé dans les trois pays et les opérations devraient progressivement céder la place aux activités de relèvement.

Le grand nombre de cas d’Ebola a ébranlé les systèmes de santé fragilisés et défaillants des trois pays les plus touchés. Les ressources (humaines et financières) limitées ont été redirigées vers les programmes de lutte contre Ebola et les établissements de santé ont soit fermé leurs portes pour une durée indéterminée, soit réduit leurs activités.

 La défaillance des systèmes de suivi et de surveillance des maladies autres qu'Ebola ont entraîné d'importantes lacunes en matière d'information. Peu de données sont disponibles en ce qui concerne les autres problèmes de santé, y compris les flambées potentielles de maladies, l'accès au traitement contre le VIH/sida ou la tuberculose, l'incidence du paludisme et l'accès aux services de santé maternelle, aux campagnes d'immunisation et aux médicaments.

 
De nombreuses personnes hésitent à se faire soigner dans les établissements de santé de peur d'être contaminées et en raison d'une certaine méfiance à l'égard du système de santé, ce qui entraîne d'autres répercussions sur le secteur de la santé et risque d'augmenter les taux de mortalité et de morbidité liées à des maladies pourtant guérissables. 

A multitude of needs assessments have been conducted to capture impacts of the Ebola outbreak on affected communities, since March 2014. This paper reviews all of the assessments on Liberia and Sierra Leone made available to the Ebola Needs Analysis Project (ENAP), between December 2014 and 20 March 2015. Several assessments have been conducted at a regional level. This report focuses only on those conducted on a national level or lower, to allow for disaggregation of results. The review aims to inform the humanitarian response and future assessments, by identifying what information exists and where information gaps remain. 

Au 19 avril, 3 151 cas confirmés d'Ebola avaient été signalés en Guinée, et 2 358 personnes avaient succombé à la maladie (OMS, 20/04/2015). Une certaine réticence visà-vis la réponse humanitaire contre Ebola a été constatée. Des incidents violents ont éclaté dans certaines régions, ce qui a entravé l'acheminement de l'aide et l'accès du personnel humanitaire aux communautés. Des agents humanitaires ont parfois été contraints d'interrompre leurs activités à cause de problèmes d'insécurité. Des cas de réticence ont également été recensés au Libéria et en Sierra Leone, mais c'est en Guinée que l'opposition était la plus forte et la plus virulente.  

Un ensemble complexe de facteurs sous-jacents a été identifié. Un certain nombre de facteurs, qui existaient déjà avant la flambée de l'épidémie, ont été aggravés. D'autres facteurs sont apparus en raison de la nature de l'épidémie et suite aux interventions mises en œuvre. Le présent rapport vise à analyser le niveau de réticence de la population à l'égard de la réponse humanitaire contre Ebola en Guinée en dressant un bilan de la situation actuelle et future en fonction de l'évolution de l'épidémie, et en étudiant les facteurs sous-jacents et aggravants. 

The number of new Ebola infections in Sierra Leone is declining, despite the outbreak continuing to claim lives. New cases have dropped to around 9-12 per week, according to recent WHO figures. There were over 500 cases per week at the height of the crisis around late November 2014.

The impact on the lives of the thousands of people directly affected by the disease has been devastating. It has caused substantial suffering to many others, leaving the population very vulnerable. 

No recent assessment has evaluated and compared the status of populations in areas with high, medium and low exposure to Ebola. In this report, we refer to low, medium or high exposure areas based on the proportion of Ebola cases up to January 2015, compared to the 2014 population projections for those areas. Low Ebola exposure areas are districts in which the proportion of EVD cases compared to the population is between 0.01% and 0.10%. Medium Ebola exposure districts are defined as districts in which the proportion ranges from 0.11% to 0.20%. High exposure districts are districts in which the proportion of EVD cases is between 0.21% and 0.52%.

 The Ebola Needs Analysis Project (ENAP) assessment was designed as a probability sample survey, conducted with 188 KIs from 59 chiefdoms and wards. The aim was to analyse the impact of the Ebola crisis from a multi-sectoral perspective. 

In the complex environment of an epidemic, capacity to identify humanitarian needs is essential to inform and guide operations. Such capacity was challenged in the three countries most affected by the Ebola crisis, due mainly to problems of access and fear of the disease. 

This report gathers lessons identified from assessments of the humanitarian situation in West Africa during the later stages of the Ebola crisis, between November 2014 and April 2015. It is based on conversations with individuals from different organisations who conducted assessments, as well as on ACAPS experiences of assessments conducted in Sierra Leone and Liberia during the Ebola Needs Analysis Project (ENAP). 

The document provides a starting-point for organisations planning an assessment in this Ebola outbreak or in similar future situations. More general lessons, which have been covered in other publications, are repeated here because experience has indicated they need reinforcing. When considering these lessons, it is important to keep in mind that Liberia and Sierra Leone are developing countries whose public health systems were already weak pre-crisis.  

As the response moves towards recovery and long-term development planning, the perceptions of the younger generation on the crisis highlight their priorities for the future. Like the focus group discussion, the report covers three main themes: the main impacts of Ebola on student life (negative and positive), current concerns, and recommendations for recovery and development plans.

On 20 November, a new Ebola virus disease case was confirmed in Monrovia, capital of Liberia. The latest case, depending on sources either a 10-year or 15-year-old boy, who lives in the eastern Paynesville district of the city, was admitted to a treatment centre in the outskirts of Monrovia on 19 November. Two direct family members tested positive as well on 20 November. As of 20 November, at least four other people, of whom two relatives, had been admitted to the Ebola treatment centre (ETC). At least 153 contacts have been identified and are being monitored. Food and water were delivered on 21 November to high risk contacts. 

The boy was at school, the Living in Christ International Ministry School, and appears to have shown symptoms before being admitted to hospital, according to health officials. At least seven healthcare workers may have treated him without the protective equipment essential for Ebola cases (New York Times, 21/11/2015). According to media sources, the child’s family and school will be put into quarantine.

These are the first new Ebola cases in Liberia, since the country was declared free from the disease a second time on 3 September 2015. 

This thematic report outlines the impact of the crisis on the economy and livelihoods in Syria. It covers the impact from a macroeconomic perspective, including the impact on GDP and Government budget as well as the consequences for international and national trade. In addition, it provides an overview of the livelihoods of Syrians and explains how they have changed as a result of the deteriorating economic and security situation.

This thematic report provides an overview of available lessons identified from assessments undertaken concerning the humanitarian situation in Syria as well as the situation for Syrian refugees in host-countries. This report is based on conversations with individuals from different organisations working in the region. The document does not intend to provide a comprehensive list of all the issues that should be taken into account while conducting an assessment, but rather provides a starting point for organisations planning an assessment in Syria or the host countries. For more guidance on how to conduct an assessment please see the key resources at the end of this report.

This thematic report outlines the main official and unofficial supply routes of fuel, wheat and medicines into Syria.

A rapid needs assessment was carried out from mid-­‐November to mid-­December 2013 in Dar’a Governorate and covered a population of 692,000 people across 12 of the 17 sub-­districts.

This document is the second governorate profile published by the Syria Needs Analysis Project (SNAP). The profile describes the current situation in Al-Hasakeh, with regards to the conflict, the subsequent displacement situation and the  humanitarian needs, where available per district.

This thematic report examines the potential capacity to reach populations in need of humanitarian assistance via the main border crossings to Syria from Turkey.

The profile describes the current situation in Idleb, with regards to the conflict, the subsequent displacement situation and the humanitarian needs, where available per district.

11 organisations provided information on 70 projects between June and September 2014, amounting to USD 51 million. The participating agencies reported on funding from 23 institutional donors. All together, the projects targeted around 1.7 million direct beneficiaries, though this will include significant double counting, as the same beneficiaries may receive aid from different organizations, related to different needs.

This report gives an overview of the expected impact of the winter season in Syria, neighbouring countries hosting Syrian refugees, and Iraq.

This Regional Analysis of the Syria conflict (RAS) is produced quarterly and seeks to bring together information from all sources in the region to provide analysis of the overall Syria crisis. Part A II provides detailed analysis per governorate.

This Regional Analysis of the Syria conflict (RAS) is produced quarterly and seeks to bring together information from all sources in the region to provide analysis of the overall Syria crisis. Part B covers the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries.

This Regional Analysis of the Syria conflict (RAS) is produced quarterly and seeks to bring together information from all sources in the region to provide analysis of the overall Syria crisis. Part A I highlights countrywide humanitarian concerns.

This map is intended to provide humanitarian actors with a regularly-updated picture of which groups control territory in Syria, in order to facilitate an estimation of the obstacles that may be faced in program operations. Due to the limitations of available data, it is not comprehensive, and should be used to complement, not replace, information from the field.

This report documents the secondary humanitarian problems and impacts of largescale Ebola outbreak on the different humanitarian sectors, to provide a non-exhaustive plan to help future responders. A large scale Ebola outbreak, in this document, refers to an epidemic with an unprecedented scale, geographical spread and duration. 

At the beginning of the crisis, the international community perceived the outbreak as a purely public health emergency. The response was oriented towards the containment of the epidemic and treatment of the sick patients. The initial focus was on providing beds for patients and mobilising health practitioners. The livelihoods, education or protection needs of the affected communities, indirectly caused by the outbreak, were left unaddressed.

The secondary humanitarian problems and impacts of the epidemic were extensive, and threatened the lives and livelihoods of more than 22 million people in the three most affected countries, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The disruption of public and private services created an “emergency within the emergency”. Humanitarian actors failed to activate their surge capacity, or set up emergency funding and coordination structures, as a result of this perception of the crisis. It took time for the humanitarian community to recognise the complexity of the crisis and respond to the secondary impacts on other sectors. One major lesson learned during this epidemic has been the need to broaden the scope of the humanitarian response during a large-scale Ebola outbreak.  

On 25 April, 11:41 local time, an earthquake with of 7.8 magnitude and a depth of 2 km, hit Nepal near the capital city of Kathmandu. The epicentre is located 77km northwest of Kathmandu, and 68km east from Pokhara. Tremors have also caused damage outside Nepal.  

As of 26 April, 15:30 local time, at least 2,200 people have died and around 4,600 more have been injured. The situation is still unclear in remote areas, which remain cut off or hard to access.

As of 26 April, aftershocks are still being felt. At least 18 aftershocks occurred on 25 April. Magnitudes aftershocks have ranged from 5–6.7. 

The aim of this product is to improve the performance of humanitarian actors in the response of the Nepal earthquake, assist agencies working in the response and encourage positive action by decision makers. The lessons learned below have been a product of the analysis of main findings and lessons from evaluations of past earthquakes, with similar characteristics and features of Nepal. 

As of 30 April, 1400 local time, at least 5,630 people have died and more than 11,000 have been injured. The situation is still unclear in remote areas, which remain cut off or hard to access. 

Keterlambatan mulainya musim hujan disebabkan oleh El Nino (ENSO atau, El Niño Southern Oscillation). Curah hujan yang berkurang ini menunda penanaman padi musim panen pertama. Sekitar 25% dari total nasional belum ditanam pada akhir Desember 2015 terutama di Jawa, Sulawesi, dan Indonesia bagian timur.

Diperkirakan 3 juta orang Indonesia hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan di daerahdaerah yang terkena dampak kekeringan antara bulan Oktober dan Desember 2016, 1,2 juta di antaranya bergantung pada curah hujan untuk produksi pangan dan mata pencaharian. 

After the Ebola outbreak was declared in Sierra Leone, in June 2014, early messages about the high mortality rate of Ebola were met with fear and denial by many communities (BBC,  14/06/2015). At the peak of the outbreak, the government’s order to place more than one million people under quarantine further damaged trust between affected communities and responders (ACAPS, 10/2015) As the outbreak spread, it was important to find appropriate ways to tell people how to minimise the risk of catching the disease and what to do if it affected them and their families. The way messages were developed and disseminated evolved with the epidemic. In Sierra Leone cases spread silently until May 2014, then uncontrollably until November 2014, before slowly getting down to zero in November 2015. Now that the country has been declared Ebola free, communication remains a key aspect of community mobilisation efforts to address remaining Ebola-related issues, such as survivor stigma and complacency towards prevention measures. This is the second of two reports that ACAPS is producing with the aim of identifying lessons learned and good practice in community-led communication processes. This report focuses on Sierra Leone and the first covers Liberia. The grey boxes indicate content that relates to communication in emergencies in general and is common to both reports.

La RCA connait une situation d’urgence depuis les 5-6 décembre 2013.

La crise, de dimension régionale, a débuté en décembre 2012 lorsque la Séléka, une coalition armée menée par des groupes majoritairement musulmans du NordEst du pays, a entamé une campagne aboutissant à un coup d’Etat le 24 mars 2013. L’incapacité du nouveau pouvoir à rétablir la sécurité dans le pays ont progressivement fait sombrer la RCA dans le chaos.

 À l’automne 2013, en réponse aux violences armées perpétrées par des éléments Séléka contre la population majoritairement chrétienne, des groupes d’autodéfense – les anti-Balaka – se forment.

En décembre 2013, sur mandat des Nations Unies, la mission interafricaine de maintien de la paix MISCA se déploie ainsi que l’opération française SANGARIS. L’intensification des combats entre ex-Séléka et anti-Balaka et la détérioration complète de la situation aboutissent en janvier 2014 à la démission du président Michel Djotodia et à la nomination d’un gouvernement de transition.

Le 10 avril 2014, le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies vote le déploiement de la mission de maintien de la paix MINUSCA devant remplacer SANGARIS et la MISCA en septembre 2014.

The Central African Republic (CAR) has been in the midst of an escalating emergency since 5-6 December 2013, when fighting between rival armed groups in the capital, Bangui, left at least 1,000 people dead. Fighting, led by a northeastern coalition of armed militia known as Seleka, initially broke out in CAR in December 2012. The Seleka fighters, the majority of whom are Muslim, then seized power in a coup in Bangui on 24 March 2013 and the coalition leader was installed as CAR’s interim President. After disbanding the Seleka in response to international pressure in September, the short-lived President was eventually removed from office in late 2013 while fighting intensified. In response to ongoing attacks by ex-Seleka fighters against the mostly non-Muslim civilian population, ‘self-defence’ militias known as AntiBalaka have mobilised as the crisis took a turn for the worse. 

The humanitarian crisis has worsened significantly in the two months following the violent events on 5-6 December 2013. To date, violence continues to rage in Bangui, where it has so far left 1,200 people dead and 3,000 wounded, and has also spread to other parts of the country, mainly to western and northwestern regions. Various armed groups have targeted not only other combatants, but also civilians based on their Muslim or Christian religion. Against this background, tensions between Christians and Muslims further heightened and inter-civilian fighting, along religious lines, has become widespread. 

Resolution 2127 (2013), voted on by the UN Security Council on 5th December 2013, provided a mandate for a 1,600 strong French military contingent (Operation ‘Sangaris’) to disarm the armed groups and protect civilians. The French troops were deployed to CAR on 6-7 December to work alongside the African-led International Support Mission in the CAR (MISCA) which operates under the same UN mandate.

 La RCA connait une situation d’urgence depuis les 5-6 décembre 2013. La crise a débuté en décembre 2012 lorsque la Séléka, une coalition armée menée par des groupes majoritairement musulmans du Nord-Est du pays, a entamé une campagne aboutissant à la prise de la capitale, Bangui, par un coup d’Etat le 24 mars 2013. L’incapacité du nouveau pouvoir à rétablir la sécurité dans le pays ont progressivement fait sombrer la RCA dans le chaos. À l’automne 2013, en réponse aux violences armées perpétrées par d’anciens Séléka contre la population majoritairement chrétienne, des groupes d’auto-défense – les anti-Balaka – se sont formés. Début décembre, suite à une vague de violence sans précédent à Bangui, la crise a pris une nouvelle dimension.  

La crise humanitaire s’est fortement aggravée  au cours des deux mois qui ont suivi les événements des 5-6 décembre 2013. Les violences ont ainsi continué à Bangui où plus de 1 200 personnes ont été tuées et 3 000 blessées à ce jour, avant d’enflammer le reste du pays, frappant en priorité l’Ouest et le Nord-Ouest de la RCA. Les groupes armés ont pris pour cible non seulement les groupes armés adverses, mais aussi des civils de religion opposée. Alors que les tensions entre Chrétiens et Musulmans n’ont cessé d’augmenter, le pays a vu la multiplication des affrontements entre civils sur une base interconfessionnelle.

Sur vote de la résolution 2127 (2013) du Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU le 5 décembre 2013, un mandat de désarmement des combattants et de protection des civils a été confié conjointement à un contingent français de 1 600 hommes, l’opération « Sangaris », déployé en RCA les 6-7 décembre, et à la Mission Internationale de Soutien à la Centrafrique sous conduite Africaine (MISCA). 

The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.

Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.

Category five Tropical Cyclone Pam hit Vanuatu in the evening of 13 March 2015, with winds of more than 250km/hr and has affected the entire country, but particularly in the central and southern provinces. On 13 March, the Government issued a ‘red alert’ to all six provinces, advising people to seek shelter immediately.

According to GDACS, more than 48,000 people out of the total 245,000 people are affected and humanitarian needs are high. More than 10,000 are reportedly homeless in the capital and largest city Port Vila; more than 33,000 people are affected in the outlying southernmost islands. This number is in fact likely to be much higher, as more information becomes available.  

Unconfirmed reports said that 44 people had died in the northeastern province of Penama, according to OCHA. Only six are confirmed dead. 

Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states are revealing extremely high rates of severe acute malnutrition, especially among 275,000 IDPs reported to live in 15 camps in Borno state. Information from recent rapid assessments, although limited, raises the possibility of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the worst affected and least accessible areas of Borno. The Minister of Health has declared a nutrition emergency in Borno state. 613,000 children have been reported with SAM.
Poor quality and lack of food, inadequate WASH, as well as the insurgency, are among the main causes. Most affected areas are those adjacent to Sambisa Forest and those in northern Borno. Although only limited information is available, there are concerns that conditions among other IDP populations in the area could be similarly dire. The crude mortality rate (CMR) may have surpassed 2/10,000/day in June.

Over 14 million people are affected by conflict in northeast Nigeria and more than 10 million people are in need. A growing number of people are in urgent need of food assistance, with some of the worst affected areas possibly in Famine (IPC Phase 5). Alarming rates of acute malnutrition are emerging in Borno and Yobe and deaths as a result of SAM have been reported.

Borno state is most affected: 4.5 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, and 4.1 million are food insecure. In Yobe and northern Adamawa, pockets of insecurity persist: 3.2 million people estimated to be in need in Yobe, including 2.3 million food insecure. 900,000 people in Adamawa are food insecure.

Heavier than usual monsoon rains have caused floods in Bangladesh since 20 July. Some 3,200,000 people have been affected and up to 42 have died as of 3 August. Up to 300,000 people have been displaced in 16 different districts, mostly in the Northern and Central provinces (including Bogra, Faridpur, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Kurigram, Kustia, Lalmonirhat, Madaripur, Manikganj, Nilphamary, Rajbari, Rangpur, Sariatpur, Sirajgonj, Sunamgonj, and Tangail). Most urgent needs are food provisions, WASH, and Emergency Shelter.

Drought has been ongoing since October 2015, but has recently deteriorated dramatically. The drought has now impacted seven departments and 106 municipalities. Over 160,000 people as well as 90,000 hectares of agriculture and over 121,000 cattle have been affected. 104 municipalities have declared a state of emergency, with losses in agricultural production reported at USD 35 million among small farmers of the Pailon municipality alone.

On 24 July, high amounts of rainfall (between 100-200mm at various locations) caused heavy flooding in some parts of Senegal. The districts Kaffrine and Kolda (central and south Senegal) have reportedly been the heaviest affected, with Kaolack and Matam also receiving above average rainfall. Throughout Kaffrine district some 1,500 houses have been destroyed and 7,500 people affected. Because no independent assessment has been carried out yet the actual amount of damage and sectoral needs are not yet known.
The number of people potentially at risk throughout the 2016 flood season is estimated at 210,000.

Some 250,000 Syrian refugees are registered in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KR-I), most having fled armed conflict in Syria in 2012 and 2014. 90% are Syrian Kurds. In 2014 and 2015, Iraqi IDPs fleeing Islamic State (IS) increased the population of KR-I by more than 30% in just two years. As of early August, KR-I hosts 955,200 IDPs, 28% of the total displaced in Iraq. 

As of July, 1.2 million people in Kenya acutely need food assistance, an increase of 500,000 from February. Most food insecure people are in Garissa, Tana River, and Isiolo counties, in the centre-east. Such levels of food insecurity are typical for Kenya and do not represent any major deterioration.

This briefing note focuses on four counties in the pastoral northwest and northeast (Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, West Pokot), and on two counties in southeast and coastal areas (Kilifi, Tana River). Tana River, Marsabit. and Kilifi are worst affected. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rates are reported to be above the emergency threshold in West Pokot and Turkana, where malnutrition rates are often very high.

Since mid-July over 15,000 South Sudanese refugees have arrived in the territories of Faradge and Aru in Haut-Uele and Ituri provinces following a resurgence of violence in South Sudan. DRC has been experiencing an influx of refugees into Aru territory in Ituri, close to the border with South Sudan, since October 2015. There is now a total of 27,250 registered South Sudanese refugees in the territories of Faradge and Aru in Haut-Uele and Ituri provinces. The new arrivals have received little humanitarian assistance. Lack of food, shelter, and medicine has been reported in Ituri.

Over five years of conflict in northeast Nigeria has resulted in critical levels of malnutrition and food insecurity. The military offensive in 2016 has resulted in the recapture of many urban areas and increased humanitarian access. While the government of Nigeria and humanitarian community are scaling up, the response remains inadequate. Driven by a lack of food and livelihoods in their places of displacement, many of the displaced are returning home to locations lacking critical infrastructure and essential services. The ongoing conflict has the potential to continue to cause further displacement and reduce food security.

There is an urgent need to ensure a coherent and robust response strategy that takes into account future developments to guide the current scale-up of operations.

The scenarios within this document are not attempts to predict the future. Rather they are a description of situations that could occur in the coming nine months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts, and resulting humanitarian consequences, of the insurgency in northeast Nigeria.

Au moins 20% du territoire d’Haïti a été touché par l’ouragan Matthew. Un grand nombre de glissements de terrain et d’inondations ont été rapportés dans toutes les régions côtières, de même qu’à l’intérieur des départements touchés. Les départements les plus touchés sont: Sud, Grand’Anse et Nippes. Au total, 2 128 700 personnes, soit 12 % de la population d’Haïti, ont été touchées, dont 894 100 enfants.

Early on 20 October 2016, typhoon Haima/Lawin is due to hit the Philippines. Winds up to 185 km/h are expected, and rainfall of 100-200 mm throughout the next two days with local amounts over 300 mm, thus exacerbating the risk of mudslides, especially in higher elevations.

11.6 million people could be affected, mostly in northern Luzon – including 2.8 million in the Cagayun and Isabela provinces, where it will hit the hardest.

This thematic report is the third in a series of profiles on the worst affected departments in Haiti following Hurricane Matthew. It compiles and analyses existing pre-crisis data at the departmental level across a range of sectors and is intended to serve as a reference point for understanding the current humanitarian crisis.

The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.

Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.

More than 173,500 refugees and migrants have reached Italy so far in 2016, around 29,000 more than in the same period last year. While the vast majority still use Libya as the departure point to Europe, more are using Egypt and Algeria. The nationality of arrivals is evolving, with fewer Eritreans and more Egyptians.

Protection is a primary concern. The estimated number of deaths on the Central Mediterranean route has grown to over 4,200 people this year, compared to less than 2,900 at the same point in 2015. Many people die on the journey over land to north Africa, but this number is not known. Migrants and refugees also face detention, sexual exploitation, and forced labour. The number of unaccompanied minors arriving in Italy is growing.

150,000 people are expected to leave China in December to escape the smog, which has caused tens of thousands to be displaced, schools to shut down, impacts on health, and restrictions on transport. The government has declared a pollution red alert. 

Political uncertainty in the Gambia, due to former President Yahya Jammeh’s refusal to accept the results of the 1 December  presidential election, drove thousands of Gambians to flee the country into Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. As of 22 January, over 76,000 people have reportedly sought shelter in Senegal since early January. An estimated 3,500 Gambians have sought safety in Guinea-Bissau since mid-January. Although some people have already begun to return, an estimated 50,000 Gambians remained in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau as of 24 January. Additionally, an estimated 150,000 people are internally displaced.

Somalia is currently experiencing a drought that started in 2015. The whole country is affected, with northeastern areas of Puntland and Somaliland the worst affected. Humanitarian conditions in the southcentral areas of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo have deteriorated rapidly since November, with poor rainfall affecting crops and livestock. Poor and rural households are atypically market dependent heading into the Jilaal lean season and many require humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs.

Since the beginning of January 2017, heavy seasonal rains have been affecting central and southern provinces in Mozambique. 44 people have died and 79,000 have been affected. The Mozambican authorities issued an orange alert for the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane and Nampula, yet areas of Tete and Sofala provinces have also been affected. The orange alert means that government institutions are planning for an impending disaster. Continued rainfall has been forecasted for the first quarter of 2017. [This report has been republished after a correction] 

The BH insurgency and the military’s counterinsurgency has resulted in a severe crisis in Nigeria’s northeast. More than 20,000 people have been killed and 4,000 women and girls abducted since the conflict began eight years ago. 1.6 million people remain internally displaced.

The number of people with protection needs has grown from 2.6 million in 2015 to 6.7 million in 2017, as areas that were previously held by BH have been become accessible. Needs result from attacks on communities, chronic insecurity, and violations of human rights and international humanitarian law. Women and children, who make up 55% of the displaced population, are most critically affected. Many men have been killed, detained, or are otherwise unaccounted for. Sexual and gender-based violence is frequent, as vulnerable populations adopt negative coping strategies like transactional sex and the sale and use of illicit drugs. 

See map above for suicide attacks and attempts in northeast Nigeria.

Suicide attacks and attempts in northeast Nigeria between September 2016 and January 2017

Continuous heavy rainfall since February has caused severe flooding in Khashrod and Chakhansur districts in Nimroz province. As of 23 February several homes had been destroyed or swept away by flood waters, and over 20,000 hectares of arable land had been submerged in flood water. An estimated 3,000 people have been affected and displaced by flooding in both Chakhansur and Khashrod districts. Affected populations are in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Some of the affected were already vulnerable prior to the flooding. Many were either internally displaced or returnees from Iran. 
 

Tropical Cyclone Enawo, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, made landfall over Antalaha district, in the northeastern coast of Madagascar, on 7 March at around 10:30am local time. Wind speeds of 220–230 km/h were recorded, along with heavy rains. The storm traversed nearly the length of the island over two days, affecting communities from north to south across Madagascar’s eastern and central regions. On 7 and 8 March, approximately 131mm of rain was recorded in Antananarivo (OCHA 09/03/2017). On 8 March, the cyclone weakened to a ‘moderate’ tropical storm, with an average speed of 80km/h, and the storm exited the country on 10 March.  

As of 13 March, at least 100,000 people have been directly affected by the cyclone, approximately half of whom are in Antalaha district. At least 50 people have been killed, and 183 wounded, mainly in Analanjirofo and Sava regions. Over 110,000 people have been displaced by flooding and storm waters, particularly in Antalaha and Maroantsetra districts.  
 

Since December 2016, above-average rains have caused flooding and landslides in 24 of the 25 regions of Peru. Over 99,000 people have suffered losses and over 600,000 people have been affected. 12 regions have declared a state of emergency. Piura and Lambayeque in the northwest, and Ica and Arequipa in the southwest are most affected. Piura, Lambayeque, Lima, Ica and Arequipa are particularly affected by infrastructure damage such as road and bridge collapse, damage to sewage and drainage systems, and health concerns. 

Outbreaks of Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, have been reported in DRC, Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, Swaziland, Ghana and Kenya. Regionally, around 330,000 hectares of staple crops, especially maize, have been affected. The remaining southern African mainland countries remain at high risk. The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established. The damages caused by the infestation depend on the stage at which the pest attacked the plant. Crops that were infested during the early stages of crop development, in late December, had to be replanted, while those infested later in their growth seem to have recovered without intervention.

Update: The further spread of Fall Armyworm was observed in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe in March. Damage from existing outbreaks was also sustained in Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia. While further outbreaks are expected only in northern Tanzania in the coming months, all countries are advised to continue monitoring diligently and to apply appropriate preventative measures. Although the Fall Armyworm season is expected to end in June, long-term impacts are expected for affected countries, and neighbouring countries should also remain diligent. 

130mm of rain fell in the city of Mocoa in southwest Colombia between 23:00 on 31 March and 01:00 on 1 April local time (between 05:00 and 07:00 GMT), causing the flooding of the Mocoa, Mulato, and Sangoyaco Rivers, and several mudslides throughout Mocoa (Sky News 02/04/2017).  

At least 254 people have died, 200 were injured, 200 remain missing, and around 1,200 have been affected by the floods (Floodlist 02/04/2017 ; ABC 02/04/2017). 17 neighbourhoods of Mocoa have been affected (in the area shown on the map below). Areas in southern Mocoa have been the hardest hit: San Miguel (which may have been completely destroyed), Los Laureles, San Fernando, and El Progreso (Colombia Reports 01/04/2017).  
 

ACAPS and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have produced a new set of Central and West Mediterranean migration scenarios, outlining possible developments in migration via Libya, Italy, Spain and other transit countries over the next six months.

Following scenario-building workshops in Budapest in March, four scenarios were identified:

-              Slight increase in migration via North Africa to Europe

-              Large increase in migration in readmissions

-              Enforced closure of central Mediterranean route

-              Improved internal security in Libya

The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.

Although the flow of returnees to Afghanistan has slowed since its peak in mid-2016, more than 60,000 people have returned from Iran (54,000) and Pakistan (almost 10,000) this year. They are in need of livelihoods and shelter as well as protection assistance.

Returnees from Pakistan go through Torkham border in Nangarhar province and Spin Boldak border in Kandarhar. Undocumented returnees make up around 40% of a total of 620,000 Afghans who returned from Pakistan in 2016. Returnees from Iran go through Islam Qala border in Herat province and Milak border in Nimroz province. More than 248,000 people returned from Pakistan in 2016, and more than 443,000 from Iran.

The increase is a result of worsening relations between the Afghanistan and Pakistan governments, prompting increasing pressure to return. The increase in returns from Iran is primarily due to the perceived pressure by the Iranian government that Afghan undocumented migrants put on the Iranian economy.  
 

In southeastern Sindh, below-average rainfall during the 2016 monsoon (July to October) resulted in no or substantially less crop production for the third consecutive year and in livestock losses, affecting the two main livelihood sources in the region.

According to ECHO, 27% of the population in Sindh is moderately to acutely food insecure. A lack of access to WASH facilities and medical services exacerbates food security and nutrition conditions. Landless agricultural labourers, pastoralists, and sharecroppers are most vulnerable and the worst hit. Comparable and recent data on food insecurity rates is missing, but according to the latest assessment conducted in 2015, GAM and SAM rates were well above emergency levels.

Since September 2016, response has been limited. According to a report by the UN Country Team in Pakistan published in February 2017, the 2015 findings are still valid and the region is on the verge of a humanitarian crisis.

UPDATE: Results from an IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis conducted since May and published in August shows that three of the most affected districts (Tharparkar, Jamshoro, and Sanghar) are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity, while one (Umerkot) is facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), confirming the analysis of this note published in April and updated in May.?

Many rural areas of Sindh are currently experiencing daily highs above 40°C, which are forecast to continue until early May. Average annual temperatures are in the mid-thirties at this time and increase to reach their peak in May and June, when urban areas including Karachi will be severely affected by the heatwave. Heatwaves in the past have caused considerable health impacts including dehydration, sunburn, and heatstroke. Impacts on WASH lead to additional health risks such as waterborne diseases. Increased power needs might lead to blackouts, affecting hospitals, transport, and communication. 

Timor-Leste has been experiencing a severe drought due to the El Niño phenomenon since the end of 2015. The latest rainy season, which takes place from November 2016 to May 2017, has been insufficient and erratic, maintaining drought conditions on most of the island. In the next three months, rains are expected to remain insufficient with the onset of the dry season in June. Food security continued deteriorating in the November–February lean season. With the start of the dry season in June, expectations of a poor harvest make it likely that people will continue to rely on livestock for food. Food intake reduction and a lack of diet diversity is likely to escalate malnutrition rates. National and international response is underway, but the government has not declared an emergency. 

Update: Fighting in and around the Kasai regions continues to cause displacement. So far, approximately 1.3 million people have fled violence in eight provinces. Between April and 22 May, over 23,500 people arrived in Angola. By mid-April 2017, at least 400 deaths had been recorded, including many civilians, but the number is likely higher.  Armed clashes began between militia loyal to a local chief, Kamuina Nsapu, and FARDC in Kasai in August 2016. Since then, fighting has occurred between different militia groups in Kasai-Central, Kasai Oriental, Kasai, Lomami, and Sankuru. Violence is also now partly driven by ethnic tensions. 

A cholera outbreak was reported in Yemen on 27 April. Since then, the number of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) or suspected cholera cases has increased to reach over 17,200, including 209 deaths, and the infection rate is rising quickly. The outbreak has affected 18 districts: Sana’a City (Amanat al Asemah) is the most heavily affected area, with over 4,000 suspected cases. A state of emergency has been declared in the governorate.  

About 150,000 people are facing Famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.

In all four countries, conflict is resulting in a high level of displacement and limited humanitarian access. Insecurity is preventing food production and driving prices up. All four countries are experiencing economic problems: falling revenue, currency depreciation, and inflation. Somalia is particularly hard hit by drought. The situation is likely to deteriorate with the lean season. Longstanding vulnerabilities, such as poverty and chronic malnutrition, are also contributing to the crisis. Households have exhausted their coping mechanisms.

Floods during the rainy season from June until at least October will affect about 200,000 people, mostly in southern Sudan. Particularly vulnerable are the displaced in southern Sudan, where there are 2.3 million IDPs and about 400,000 South Sudanese, 110,000 of whom arrived in 2017. Floods will damage key WASH infrastructure and increase the caseload of diseases including cholera and malaria. Houses will be destroyed and flooding will damage crops and isolate some localities, driving up food prices. 

Cyclone Mora made landfall near Kutubdia upazila, Cox’s Bazar district, southeast Bangladesh on 30 May. As of 31 May, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has lowered the danger signal related to the cyclone from 10 to 3, as the storm weakened. Initial assessments estimate that over 280,000 people have been affected. The impact Initial assessments estimate that over 280,000 people have been affected. The impact Chittagong. Vulnerable settlements where refugees and undocumented migrants and refugees, many of whom are Rohingya, reside in Cox’s Bazar have been hit particularly hard. Over 475,000 were evacuated to cyclone shelters before the storm made landfall and people have started to return home. 

Since late September, several armed clashes between government forces and militia Nsilulu, also known as Ninja, have occurred in Pool Department. According to the government, more than 60 fatal attacks have been carried out. According to the latest census in 2007, more than 126,000 people are living in these areas and have been affected by the conflict. At least 23,000 people have been displaced since March 2016. Internally displaced people are in dire need of shelter, food, and clean water. People are living with families, on church grounds, in public buildings or in overcrowded makeshift sites. Following significant sustained fighting early 2017, thousands more people were estimated to be displaced. However, due to security issues and limited access given by the government, no independent confirmation has been possible, leaving uncertainty around the total number of displaced people. 

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) campaign to retake areas of ar Raqqa governorate currently under IS control has been ongoing since November 2016. The operation is supported by airstrikes by the US-led coalition. On 6 June, the SDF entered ar Raqqa city from the eastern neighbourhood of al Mashlab. The campaign has generated considerable, mostly short-term displacement. As of end-May, over 205,000 had been displaced, mostly within ar Raqqa governorate. IDPs residing in organised camps and makeshift settlements have irregular access to food, drinking water, and sanitation facilities, as well as health services. Anecdotal evidence suggests similar needs among those still in IS-held ar Raqqa city. 

In the last year, IS has been pushed back both in Iraq and Syria, losing large areas, with the offensive to take over the IS stronghold in Iraq, Mosul, currently entering its last stages. For more information on the situation in Mosul, see the ACAPS briefing note Iraq Displacement from Mosul and Tal-Afar. 

A cholera outbreak that started in Blue Nile state in August 2016 began to spread rapidly as of April this year. Conservative estimates suggest a minimum of between 15,000-23,000 people infected, with 280-820 deaths. It is currently affecting Gedarif, White Nile, Khartoum, Sennar, River Nile, North Kordofan, and Gezira states. White Nile is host to a large South Sudanese refugee population and has had the highest number of cases so far. A state of emergency has not yet been declared and response has been limited. An underfunded health system and poor WASH facilities have contributed to the spread of infection.  

Since fighting broke out on 23 May in Marawi City, Lanao del Sur, displacement has occurred from Marawi City and the neighbouring Marantao municipality. As of 22 June, more than 294,000 people were still displaced, around 16,000 of whom were hosted in evacuation centres (ECs). Ongoing conflict in Marawi City prevents the return of displaced people and has left between 300-500 people trapped in areas controlled by IS-affiliated groups. The government of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) asked for international assistance on 29 May, including from non-governmental partners. 

Landslides that began on 13 June in Chittagong division have resulted in 160 deaths and 187 injured. 6,000 structures have been destroyed, and other key infrastructure damaged. The area affected is in a region referred to as the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). Reports indicate that approximately 80,000 people across five districts – Bandarban, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Khagrachari and, Rangamati – are affected.

India’s northeastern state of Assam has been hard-hit by monsoon rains and flooding beginning of July. Flooding worsened in Assam on 2 July, when new areas were submerged by the rising waters of the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries. As of 5 July, official figures show over 390,000 people have been affected in over 850 villages across 15 out of 32 districts.

Conflict between the government and armed groups in Darfur has been ongoing since 2003. After a brief respite following a ceasefire in October 2016, fighting resumed as of April 2017. The government has renewed the ceasefire on 2 July for a further four months. The armed groups they are clashing with, the JEM and the SLM-MM, also signed a ceasefire agreement on 3 May. Despite these declarations, clashes occurred in both May and June, highlighting a lack of commitment to the ceasefire agreements on both sides.

The return of refugees from Cameroon, Niger, and Chad has put increased pressure on the already existing displacement situation in Banki, Gamboru, Ngala, Damasak, and Pulka. Between January and June 2017, 35,000 Nigerians have returned to Banki, in Bama LGA from Cameroon. More than 4,500 of the returnees have been relocated to Pulka in Gwoza LGA. As of April 10, the Nigeria Immigrations Service (NIS) had registered 119,061 returnees from Niger and 339 from Chad. Ongoing military operations within local government areas (LGAs) and villages mean the refugees are unable to return home. They thus remain displaced within the headquarters of the LGA or are relocated to a military designated safe zone – a situation that could become protracted. Living in organized camps, makeshift settlements, schools, hospitals, and host communities as their homes are not yet safe to return to, the returning refugees lack access to food, livelihood opportunities, shelter, WASH, healthcare, and other essential services. 

Rains in Freetown started on Sunday 13 August and have continued since. At least 400 people, including at least 60 children, were killed following the collapse of a hillside in the Regent area near the capital, in Greater Freetown early on Monday morning, as many people were asleep. Since 1 July, Freetown has received triple the usual amount of rain. Most affected areas are within an area known as Regent. Three other communities were inundated, at Lumley in the west of Freetown as well as Kissy Brook and Dworzak Farm. 

34 suicide attacks have been reported across Nigeria’s Borno state since January, resulting in over 170 deaths. This is the highest number of attacks over this period in Borno since at least 2013, although the lowest number of fatalities.

Hurricane Irma made landfall on northeast Caribbean islands during the early hours local time of 6 September, affecting Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, St Barthélemy, St. Martin, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, and other islands in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The hurricane is passing over Turks and Caicos, southern Bahamas, northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti on 8 September.   

On 7 September, an 8.1 magnitude earthquake struck Mexico’s southern Pacific Coast, about 8km southwest of Pijijiapan in Chiapas state. A related 7.6 earthquake occurred in Guatemala the same evening. Aftershocks were still being reported in Mexico as of 10 September. In Mexico, 90 people were killed and at least 200 injured. Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Tabasco states were most affected. Damage to shelter has been reported, with people still sleeping outdoors for fear of more collapses. Health and school infrastructures also suffered damage, mostly in Oaxaca state. There are concerns that food shortages will arise as shops remain closed and road damage restricts movement.  
In Guatemala, an estimated 4,500 people were affected. No casualties were reported but two people were injured. Most affected departments were Huehuetenango, Quetzaltenango, Quiché, San Marcos, Suchitepéquez and Totonicapan. Houses were damaged and health and education provision disrupted.  

ACAPS and the Mixed Migration Platform have produced a new set of scenarios, outlining possible developments in Syria and neighbouring countries over the next nine months.

Following scenario-building workshops, five scenarios were identified:

1. Insecurity in Syria continues; low-level movement to Syria
2. Insecurity in Syria continues; movement to Syria increases
3. Security in Syria improves; movement to Syria increase
4. Insecurity increases; movement to Syria decreases
5. Sudden mass movement back to Syria

The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.

As of 22 September, an estimated 429,000 Rohingya people have arrived in Bangladesh since 25 August (IOM 22/09/2017). Rohingya started fleeing northern Rakhine, Myanmar as the Myanmar Army is carrying out crackdown operations in the area. Operations, which have killed at least 400 people, started after the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) carried out attacks against police- and border posts (Thomson Reuters Foundation 03/09/2017). The Myanmar Army has been accused of extrajudicial killings, torture, rape, burning of shelters, and arbitrary arrests of the minority Rohingya population. Rohingya people are entering Bangladesh at six points across the Naikonchari border: Gundum, Tombru, Jolpaitoli, Reju Aamtali, Baishpari, and Kolabagan (The Daily Star 29/08/2017). An unknown number could still be stranded at the border. 

The Commonwealth of Dominica is a sovereign island country, part of the Windward Islands in the Lesser Antilles archipelago in the Caribbean Sea. Dominica is vulnerable to a wide range of natural hazards. The most common and historically most significant are tropical storms and hurricanes. This country profile expands on background information such as the society, the history, economy, infrastructure, and the politics, as well as baseline sectoral information.

Tropical Storm Maria formed in the central Atlantic Ocean and is the tenth most intense on record. At its peak, the hurricane caused catastrophic damage and numerous fatalities across the north-eastern Caribbean, and is considered to be the worst natural disaster on record in Dominica. It also caused catastrophic damage in Puerto Rico.

As of 19 September, hundreds of people were evacuated in Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for more than 11,900 people in Puerto Rico (ECHO 19/09/2017). Maria made landfall in Dominica on September 19 and in Puerto Rico on 20 September. As of October 10, at least 96 people are confirmed to have been killed: 51 in Puerto Rico, 30 in Dominica, five in the Dominican Republic, four in the contiguous United States, three in Haiti, two in Guadeloupe, and one in the US Virgin Islands. 39,000 children are in need of assistance in countries affected by hurricanes Irma and Maria, more than a quarter of them are under five.

Tropical Storm (Category 4) Damrey made landfall in Vietnam on the morning of 4 November along the south-central coastal region, particularly affecting Khanh Hoa province. 48 deaths have been reported, with an additional 11 people missing. Over 1,300 homes have been destroyed and over 122,000 partially damaged. An estimated 500,000 people have been affected in these provinces and 24,000 remain displaced in evacuation centres. Over 12,000 hectares of agricultural land have been flooded and extensive damage to marine based livelihoods has also been reported. All five south-central provinces are reporting flooded roads and as a result limited access to some areas. One of the five provinces (Phu Yen) has had power restored while the other provinces are still partially without power. Three reservoirs have reported to be operating flood discharge due to high water levels.

On 6 November the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition announced a temporary closure of all Yemen’s airports, seaports and land crossings, effectively halting access to commercial and humanitarian goods to 27 million people. The blockage was announced after Houthis launched a missile from Yemen targeting Riyadh airport, Saudi-Arabia on 4 November. Yemen is heavily reliant on imports for around 80-90% of its food, fuel and medical needs. On 13 November, Hadi government-controlled ports in Aden, Mokha and Mukalla as well as al Wadea land crossing were reopened. Al Hudeidah and Saleef ports, on Houthi controlled area, which process 80% of commercial and humanitarian imports, remain closed. Government-controlled ports cannot function as substitutes for the country’s main ports due to their limited offload and storage capacity. The location of these ports would require the crossing of conflict frontlines to reach the northern areas most heavily affected by food insecurity and cholera. Prior to the current blockade, the Saudi-led coalition had imposed a naval blockade on Yemen's coast, and restricted travel by air, land, and sea, therefore severely restricting the inflow of commercial and humanitarian cargo for the last two and a half years. This has left the country with critically low stocks of necessary goods, reducing capacity to cope under the current conditions.

Access has been deteriorating throughout CAR in October and November 2017. In particular, access constraints due to violence and restrictions on movement have been reported in Batangafo (Ouham), Bangassou and Pombolo (Mbomou), Kaga-Bandoro (Nana-Grebizi), Zemio (Haut-Mbomou), and Nouffou (Mambere- Kadei). As of early November, over 200 attacks have targeted humanitarian workers, with 13 workers killed since January.

Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018. 

In the 20th century, there have been multiple waves of movement of Rohingya population from Rakhine State in Myanmar to Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh and back. The 2017 exodus is by far the largest. Following each previous displacement to Bangladesh, some of the Rohingya population have returned to Myanmar, driven by both initiatives from the Government of Bangladesh to repatriate the Rohingya population, and the Rohingya population’s own initiative in returning home. Difficult humanitarian conditions, lack of legal status and inability to work in Bangladesh have contributed as pull factors to return home.

A review of documentation on the situation for those residing inside and outside camps in Bangladesh reveals patterns of persistent needs and constraints since 1978. These constraints include congestion, restrictions on freedom of movement and continued statelessness and denial of rights – which, in turn, reduce the possibility of generating income, and drive high rates of malnutrition, low access or quality of WASH facilities, low availability of educational facilities, significant protection concerns, the risk of epidemics, and high prevalence of negative coping mechanisms.

This report is a review of available literature on the Rohingya influxes into Bangladesh since 1978. The review seeks to provide a historical context to the current influx, in terms of population movement, status and sector responses. This report aims to help inform current and future humanitarian response.

312 suspected cases of diphtheria have been reported in Yemen between mid-August and 20 December. The outbreak has resulted in 35 deaths reported. At 11%, the case fatality rate (CFR) is high. 18 out of Yemen’s 22 governorates are affected, with Ibb having the majority of cases. Children aged 5-14 account for around 50% of suspected cases. About 90% of fatalities were reported in children aged less than 15.

On 18 December 2017 violence escalated in Ituri and Nord Kivu provinces of north-east Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), causing displacement and an increased refugee influx into Uganda. At least 7,185 refugees have crossed into west and southwest Uganda. Refugees are being relocated to Kyangwali settlement and the Malembo C site in Hoima district, and Kyaka II settlement in Kyegegwa district. Cross-sectoral response must be strengthened as humanitarian resources and capacities are strained due to the increase in arrivals.

Conflict between the Government of Syria (GoS) and armed opposition groups has intensified since November 2017 in northern Hama governorate, southern Idleb governorate, and southern Aleppo governorate, causing a wave of displacement. Some 212,000 people have been displaced since 15 December, the majority into central and northern Idleb. The humanitarian situation in the affected governorates is deteriorating, with ongoing clashes, airstrikes, and shelling. The majority of IDPs live in makeshift settlements and report acute multi-sectoral needs.

This report aims to provide an overview of the impact of the hurricanes Irma and Maria in the Caribbean. For the purposes of this report, the focus is limited to the following seven countries: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Dominica, Sint Maarten, and Turks and Caicos Islands. All, except Sint Maarten, are Members of CARICOM. The depth of the report also reflects the limited availability of data, which in turn means that figures and information need to be updated in the future. The current data were based on the Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs) conducted in Antigua and Barbuda and in Dominica and by other available sources. These are all listed in the Reference section.

This report presents the available secondary data on the impact of Hurricane Maria as well as the current situation in Dominica four months after landfall.

On 12 February, Cyclone Gita passed over the Kingdom of Tonga, mainly affecting the islands of ‘Eua (pop. 4,950) and Tongatapu (pop. 74,679). Ha’apai (pop.6,144) was also impacted to a lesser extent. The Category Four cyclone brought heavy rain, strong winds of 230 km/h and storm surge. As the cyclone hit at low tide, the storm surge did not have a major impact. The cyclone caused extensive damage to homes and public buildings, along with the water supply, agricultural fields, and transport and communication infrastructure. Initial assessments suggest some 50,000 people are affected. Some 40 people are injured and at least 3,900 are in evacuation centres in Tongatapu.

On 25 February an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 hit Papua New Guinea (PNG) affecting mainly Southern Highlands, Hela, Western Highlands, Western Province, and Enga provinces. The affected area is mountainous and remote, although impact has been reported in Mendi city, almost 100km away. An estimated 274,600 people are within 50km of the epicentre. Approximately 326,000 people are estimated to be very strongly impacted, according to the Modified Mercalli Scale. Initial reports are limited but there are indications of urgent needs, including for health, shelter and WASH assistance. Various impact, including damage, casualties and landslides, has been reported in at least seven locations: Hides, Porgera, Mendi, Nipa-Kutubu, Tari-Pori, and Huilya.

This brief outlines the potential impact of rains, floods and landslides in the camps of Cox’s Bazar. To do so, it draws on past impact of rains in these camps, as well as in Cox’s Bazar and in Bangladesh more generally. It also draws on similar camp settings and natural disasters in other countries. Wherever possible, it is grounded in informal discussions with experts in their sector, meeting notes and field observations. The camps at this scale have never existed in this season before, so there is no direct past experience of how they have withstood a monsoon. 

Disclaimer: This note is based on a subjective assessment of the potential impact of the monsoon on camps, and is considered a worst-case scenario.

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Following security operations in Moyale, Ethiopia, some 10,000 people have been displaced to Moyale in Marsabit county, Kenya, since 10 March. The displaced population is currently staying in makeshift camps around Moyale. 80% of the displaced people are women and children, including 600 pregnant women and 1,500 children under five. Multisectoral assistance is urgently needed.

This report aims to cover the cross-sectoral needs related to the large-scale conflict driven displacement in Taizz and AlHudaydah since December 2017. It places these developments into a wider context by looking at the drivers of the conflict and the displacement in these two governorates since the escalation of conflict in March 2015.

On 10 April, the category 3 Tropical Cyclone Keni moved towards Fiji. More than 8,900 people are sheltered in evacuation centres across the country. Western Division and Kadavu Island were the most affected areas. People in affected areas are in urgent need of food and water. There are concerns for people living in Kadavu because of the difficulty in accessing the island and because of challenges with communication following the cyclone. Cyclone Keni moved south-east away from Fiji on 11 April. Heavy rains may continue to affect several areas of Fiji.

Significantly above-average rainfall since the beginning of the Long Rains rainy season in March have led to flooding across the country. Between 244,000 and 260,000 people are estimated to have been displaced. Rains are expected to continue in the following weeks, meaning further flooding is likely and recovery will take time. Among the displaced population, there are needs for shelter, food, WASH, and health assistance. Active cholera outbreaks are ongoing in Garissa, Turkana, Meru, West Pokot, Isiolo, and Nairobi, and there is a risk of further spread or new outbreaks in flood-affected areas. Response is ongoing but capacity is stretched.

This thematic report analyses the most pressing humanitarian needs in Gaza against the backdrop of long-standing vulnerabilities, access restrictions, and political developments. Research was conducted through the secondary data analysis and conversations with key informants in Gaza, West Bank, and Israel. The report identifies key drivers of the crisis and provides an overview of emergency response preparedness. Aggravating factors have been identified to better understand the impact of potential deterioration of the security situation in Gaza. Existing information gaps and lessons learned based on the response to past acute crises in Gaza are included.

Equateur province in DRC has been affected by an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD). The outbreak is believed to have begun in early April and was officially declared on 8 May. Since 3 May, 39 suspected cases have been reported, two of which have been laboratory confirmed. The full scale of the outbreak is still being determined as poor infrastructure and the remote location constrain response to the outbreak.

A tropical cyclone developed on 16 May in the Gulf of Aden, between Yemen and Somalia, known as Cyclone Sagar. It hit Djibouti on 19 May causing heavy rains and flash floods. The areas most affected by flash floods are Djibouti City and the suburb of Balbala. 25-50,000 people have been affected by flash floods and likely displaced, and two deaths have been reported. Two sectors of Obock town, in Obock Region, are also flooded. Damages to shelters by heavy rains have been reported in Ali Addeh refugee settlement. No needs have been reported for the population in Ali Addeh and Obock town.

The economic crisis in Venezuela has led to a deterioration of the humanitarian conditions and increased humanitarian needs. Import restrictions and hyperinflation reduce availability and access to basic goods and services. The economic crisis is exacerbated by a political crisis revolving around the erosion of democratic institutions. While the number of people in need in Venezuela and the severity of need is unclear due to lack of data, surveys conducted by local organisations point to an increasingly dire situation. Migration to other countries in South America, particularly Colombia and Brazil, has significantly increased since 2017 and the host countries are increasingly struggling to receive these arrivals. Over one million Venezuelans are estimated to live in Colombia, up from some 300,000 in mid-2017. Priority needs of people affected by the crisis inside Venezuela include food, health, nutrition, and protection. Many migrants from Venezuela hosted by countries in the region also face growing humanitarian concerns, particularly protection and shelter needs.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar with winds between 110 -115 km/h formed in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia on 19 May. It made landfall on the northwest coast of Somaliland as a Tropical Storm with 56 km/h winds, resulting in a year’s worth of heavy rains and flooding. The storm caused extensive destruction, including loss of livestock and crops, destruction of homes and critical infrastructure, and mass displacement. Damage to livelihoods, especially the death of livestock, the key source of income and sustenance for a majority of the pastoral popualtions residing in this region, is likely to aggravate existing food insecurity. Current outbreaks of AWD/Cholera also pose a health risk to affected populations. There is urgent need for WASH, shelter and NFIs, food and health assistance.

Fuego Volcano, the most active volcano in Guatemala erupted on 3 June generating a column of ash, lava, and pyroclastic flows up to 10km from the crater. The eruption affected over 1.7 million people in Sacatepéquez, Escuintla, and Chimaltenango departments. On 5 June a new violent descent of pyroclastic lava flow led to new evacuations and casualties. A new lahar (volcanic mudflow) formed on 7 June and is descending through the valleys of Santa Teresa, Mineral, and Taniluya. Some 12,407 people have been evacuated and over 4,000 are living in emergency shelters. Urgent shelter, health, food, and WASH needs have been identified.