The Horn of Africa (HoA) (including northeast Uganda) is currently experiencing a prolonged drought, largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains (April-July) and long rains (October-December). Prevailing dry conditions across the region have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water in large areas of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. At the regional level, the number of severely food insecure people has increased to approximately 12 million, in large part as a result of the drought. Pre-existing protection, health, WASH, and shelter needs have been also been exacerbated. The humanitarian needs of the region’s growing displaced population are of particular concern.
Heavy rainfall due to the beginning of the 2019 monsoon season triggered severe flooding in northeast India. Flooding affected Assam state since 8 July but worsened considerably since 12 July, affecting 4.3 million people in 30 of 33 districts (as of 15 July). At least 83,000 people are sheltered in approximately 500 government-established relief camps and centres, with more people displaced to makeshift shelters. At least 11 people have lost their lives while the risk of more flooding and landslides persists. Urgent shelter, NFIs, food and WASH needs have been reported.
Heavy rainfall since 11 July has triggered flooding and landslides across south-eastern and central Nepal. Provinces 1, 2 and 3 are worst hit, with province 2 as the most severely affected area. An estimated 75,900 people have been displaced across the country. Shelter, WASH, health and food needs are reported. As of 16 July, 78 people have been killed, 32 people are missing, and 40 others have been injured. Flooding and landslides have blocked and damaged roads and bridges, hampering the humanitarian response.
Heavy rainfall during Myanmar’s monsoon season resulted in the Laymyo River overflowing at the beginning of July. By 14 July, all of the more than 3,400 people living in the IDP camp of Sin Baw Kaing village, Mrauk-U Township, were affected, and had to be relocated. The camp residents, displaced by fighting in Rakhine between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army group, were already poor conditions and are in need of humanitarian assistance, particularly shelter and NFIs.
Zambia is currently experiencing a prolonged drought largely as a result of below-average precipitation from the seasonal rains (November-March). The significant rainfall deficit, especially noticeable in Southern and Western provinces, has resulted in decreased agricultural production. Consequently, households are sharply depleting food stocks and are increasingly dependent on market purchases, driving up the prices of staple foods such as maize. Previous droughts have been increasing people’s vulnerabilities. 192,000 people in Southern province have been estimated to face Crisis and 54,000 Emergency levels, marking respectively 10% and 3% of the province's population according to the latest IPC estimation (from October 2018 to March 2019). Due to aforementioned factors, the projected number of people in need of food assistance is likely to reach the estimations or even exceed them, despite the end of the main harvest season (around June) when usually food security levels improve. Low water levels in major rivers and groundwater may further impact people’s access to clean drinking water. Hydro generated electricity has already been declining due to low water levels in dams.
The Yemen Crisis Impact Overview is a bi-monthly product to provide decision makers with a short, accessible overview of key trends and emerging challenges that may affect humanitarian programming in Yemen. The product combines trends in key conflict data with daily media monitoring, secondary data review and ongoing joint analysis with a broad spectrum of Yemen analysts to track and identify key trends and risks with potential civilian impact. This is the first report (covering January to May 2019).
They were developed in June 2019, during a one-day workshop in Kabul, Afghanistan. Staff from 20 humanitarian, academic, diplomatic, military, or policy organisations contributed to these scenarios through participation in the workshop or bilateral meetings.
Many variables that could cause change were mapped during the workshop. By making assumptions as to how these variables might plausibly change, five scenarios were identified.
Arrivals of Venezuelan refugees and migrants via Ecuador at Peru’s northern border at Tumbes saw a significant increase at the beginning of June in the lead up to new and stricter entry requirements. Under the new rules effective 15 June, Venezuelans are required to present a passport, irrespective of whether it is expired, and a “humanitarian visa” obtained in Peruvian consulates before arrival in the country. Between 8 and 15 June, some 34,000 people arrived at the border, causing long backlogs in processing and adding pressure on humanitarian assistance. Reported priority needs of new arrivals at Tumbes include food and nutrition, water, medicines, protection, and shelter
Since early June intense intercommunal clashes between Hema and Lendu communities led to the displacement of more than 300,000 people across Djugu, Mahagi and Irumu territories of Ituri province in northeast DRC. The majority of people are staying in host communities, mostly in public buildings or in the open. Some 30,000 people have arrived at existing displacement sites and at least 4,500 people crossed into Uganda in search for safety and assistance as of 18 June. Displaced people are in urgent need of shelter, NFI, and food assistance; however, most affected areas are largely inaccessible for humanitarian operations. Protection concerns are high as at least 161 people have been killed since 10 June and other incidents of extreme physical violence and sexual violence have been reported.
Anti-refugee rhetoric is on the rise in Lebanon and pressure on Syrian refugees to return is increasing. Refugees are being pushed back to Syria, through a combination of restrictive government policies, dire humanitarian conditions, and discrimination.
The Higher Defence Council declared in mid-April that all “semi-permanent structures" built by Syrian refugees using materials other than timber and plastic sheeting in informal tented settlements (ITS) must be deconstructed. The authorities had set a 9 June deadline for Syrian refugees to bring their homes into compliance (after which any non-compliant structures would be demolished); however, the date has been postponed until the end of June.
Some 19% of Syrian households in Lebanon are estimated to reside in non-permanent structures, mainly ITS. However, the number of Syrian refugees living in structures at risk of demolition in ITS is unclear. The demolition will contribute significantly to the deterioration of living conditions for the affected refugees in ITS and may act as push factors for returns.
Potential aggravating factors include exposure to the harsh winter (December – March) and inadequate infrastructure in ITS, increasing tensions with host community, and the status of some 565,000 unregistered Syrian refugees.
The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to:
• ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed;
• gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth;
• respond to specific requests for risk reports.
All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Since President Al-Bashir was overthrown in early April a transitional military council (TMC) has been in place. Talks between members of military and civil society with the stated intention of forming an interim government seem unlikely to progress. Demonstrations against military rule are ongoing as people call for a transfer of power to civilians. Since the demonstrations started in December 2018, protestors have faced severe human rights violations committed by Sudanese security forces. The situation escalated on 3 June when security forces violently raided peaceful sit-ins outside the military headquarters in Khartoum. On 3 June, at least 118 people were killed, more than 780 people injured and at least 70 rape cases reported. Protection concerns in Khartoum and elsewhere remain extremely high, as continue and security forces continue to violently repress protestors.
The chaotic political and security situation in Khartoum is seemingly spreading to other parts of the country. Since mid-May an increase in incidents of civil unrest, including inter-communal fighting, sometimes involving refugee or IDPs, and clashes between armed groups and security forces, and have been reported in Darfur, Kassala, South Kordofan and White Nile. A quick resolution for a peaceful transition to a civilian-led government is very unlikely. The economic crisis that began early 2018, is drastically worsening, and further exacerbating humanitarian need including access and availability of health care and food.
Kenya is currently experiencing a prolonged drought largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains (October-December) and long rains (April-June). Prevailing dry conditions across the Horn of Africa have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water, in Kenya as well as Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda. Food, livelihood, WASH, health, and protection needs are present, particularly in Kenya’s pastoral zones in the north and northeast, and are expected to increase in the coming months with the continuation of the 2019 lean season through September.
Since 4 May intercommunal clashes between armed groups affiliated to Banyamulenge and Bafuliri ethnicities have triggered large-scale displacement across three bordering territories (Fizi, Uvira and Mwenga) in Sud Kivu province. Some 125,000 people from 100 villages fled to safer neighbouring villages and to the surrounding forests. Armed groups looted and burnt villages, causing severe damages to shelter and critical infrastructure including health and sanitation facilities. Displaced people are in need of food, shelter and NFIs, WASH and health assistance.
Heavy rainfall in Bamako on 16 May caused flash floods in all six communes of the city, flooding streets, damaging houses and washing away property. At least 16 people have been killed and several others injured. 10 people are known to have died in Niamakoro district, one of the worst affected areas. According to initial assessments, 101 families (around 575 people) have been affected, with some of them forced from their homes and staying in temporary accommodation. Up to 300 households (around 1,710 people) may have been affected in total. According to the Malian Red Cross, food, medical care and medicine, as well as NFIs are the priority needs.
Since 1 May, attacks and clashes between armed groups and Congolese security forces triggered the displacement of more than 12,000 people in Nord Kivu and Ituri provinces in eastern DRC. Although exact numbers and humanitarian needs of newly displaced people are unknown, they add to more than 100,000 people who were displaced in Nord Kivu in April. Food, WASH, health, protection and shelter are reported as imminent needs of displaced people, who currently rely on host communities to meet their most basic needs.
Conflict between the Government of Syria (GoS) and armed opposition groups has intensified since the beginning of 2019, and escalated since 28 April, in northern Hama governorate and southern Idleb governorate, causing a wave of displacement. Some 152,000 people have been displaced between April 29 and 5 May, the majority into northern Idleb and northern Aleppo. Military operations have caused a high number of civilian casualties. The humanitarian situation in the affected governorates is deteriorating, with ongoing clashes, airstrikes, and shelling. The majority of IDPs live in makeshift settlements and report acute multi-sectoral needs.
On 3 May, Cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri District, bringing heavy rain to Odisha and neighbouring states, winds reaching a maximum sustained wind speed of approximately 240 km/h, and a powerful storm surge in coastal areas. Despite a large-scale evacuation effort carried out by the Indian government, at least 42 fatalities and 160 injuries have been attributed the cyclone. Extensive damage has been reported to houses and farmland, as well as to transportation, communication, water, end electricity infrastructure, particularly in Odisha. Shelter, food, livelihoods, WASH, and health needs are present in many affected areas and may persist despite active response efforts carried out by Indian authorities.
ACAPS Yemen Analysis Hub developed this product to better understand what is the analysis and data collection landscape in Yemen. Namely, we tried to map out who are the main stakeholders in data collection and analysis in Yemen, what are the main kinds of primary datasets, assessment reports, and analysis reports produced on the Yemen crisis, what is their focus (topic, sector, population groups), when are they published and how often, and who is their targeted audience.
The April 2019 Rohingya Influx Overview (RIO) describes the evolution of Rohingya refugees’ needs in Cox’s Bazar, based on latest Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) Site Assessment data collected between 14 January and 19 February 2019.
The report also addresses the potential impact of any severe weather events, as Bangladesh has entered the April-May cyclone season, to be followed by the June-September monsoon season.
We looked into nine indicators to rank and compare the humanitarian access levels worldwide. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months. 13 new countries entered the ranking since the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access report released in August 2018. Physical constraints and restriction/obstruction of access to services and assistance are the most common challenges.
Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall on the evening of 25 April 2019, about 100km North of Pemba city, Cabo Delgado province. It is estimated that 740,000 people have been exposed to winds of around 220km/h, and preliminary government estimates indicate that 163,000 people were directly affected.
ACAPS mapped the analysis landscape in Yemen during January and February 2019 during the start-up phase of the Yemen Analysis Hub. We developed a meta-database of over 130 primary datasets, needs assessments and analysis products publicly available (mostly in English) and interviewed over 25 organisations working on data collection and analysis in Yemen in the field or remotely. We compared the analysis landscape to an ‘ideal’ analysis ecosystem and identified lessons and recommendations.
ACAPS published these findings for use by other analysis organisations, researchers or think tanks interested in analysis or analysis capacity building.
In April 2019 conflict between the Libyan National Army (LNA) aligned to the government in the east and the opposing UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), based in the northwest of Libya, escalated in and around the capital Tripoli. Clashes between the LNA, the GNC and their respective allied forces have affected 1.5 million people and displaced over 37,600. Around 90 civilian casualties have been reported, including at least 21 deaths. Key humanitarian needs include safe access to healthcare, and protection and shelter assistance. Migrants and refugees in Tripoli have been particularly impacted by the conflict due to their vulnerable status. Infrastructure, including water and power facilities, has been damaged. Severe movement restrictions have impacted civilian access to services, and humanitarian operations.
Escalation of conflict in Hajjah governorate, particularly in Abs district, risks displacing up to 400,000 people. IDPs are likely to move in two directions: 1) South along the Tihama plain into northern Al Hudaydah, an area heavily impacted by the conflict-related displacement 2) To eastern districts of Hajjah, which have the highest cholera rates in the governorate and poor food security. IDPs are likely to present acute needs, exceeding the capacities of the current response. Abs district, in the direct path of the offensive, hosts up to 210,000 IDPs in over 160 settlements. Most have already been displaced multiple times and have acute shelter, WASH, food, and health needs. Conflict in Abs is likely to disrupt vital WASH and health services. Abs hosts the main water source and the district hospital. With the ongoing rainy season, and cholera cases already on the rise, these services are particularly important and should be protected.
This analysis examines the socio-economic conditions underlying Catastrophic levels of food insecurity in 45 districts of Yemen to identify key drivers which made these communities so vulnerable to food insecurity and the risk of famine.
Twenty million Yemenis are food insecure and 238,000 people in 45 of Yemen’s 333 districts were at risk of experiencing Catastrophe (IPC 5) levels of food insecurity in early 2019 in the absence of humanitarian aid.
Over 18,800 people have been displaced in March 2019 in Diffa region as a result of Boko Haram activities and attacks against civilians, adding to the 249,000 people previously displaced by the conflict, including 104,300 IDPs, 25,700 returnees and 118,900 refugees from Nigeria. In most cases, IDPs have fled without taking their belongings and are in urgent need of shelter, food and NFI support. Assessments conducted in the IDP sites have also shown a need for improved WASH infrastructure. Protection remain a high concerns as attacks against civilians have continued throughout the month of March and the risk of gender based violence is high.
Heavy rainfall since 25 March triggered floods across Herat, Badghis, Faryab, Sari Pul, Jowzjan and Balkh provinces in western and northern Afghanistan affecting 17,000 people. As assessments are ongoing and some of the affected areas are difficult to access, the full impact remains unclear. Available information suggests that vast areas of agricultural land have been damaged, and livestock lost, compounding already high levels of food insecurity in the affected provinces. Shelter needs are likely high as hundreds of houses have been damaged or destroyed. IDPs living in tents and makeshift camps are affected. Afghanistan has been experiencing severe floods since early March, affecting more than 143,000 people across the country.
This report reflects on lessons that can be learned from needs assessments in the context of the Rohingya crisis. It is based on reviews of assessments in Cox’s Bazar since 2017 and conversations with key assessment stakeholders in the Rohingya response, grounded in global experience and assessment practice. It suggests a series of key recommendations and considerations covering all stages of the assessment process, with the goal to improve future assessments and data quality. It covers assessments targeting Rohingya refugees as well as the Bangladeshi host community.
The report begins by emphasizing the need for coordination and analysis and discusses implications and limitations of different data collection methods. In the next section, it highlights linguistic challenges, showing how they can impact data quality and assessment results. This is followed by a discussion of age, gender, and diversity considerations in the context of needs assessments and operational constraints. The next section discusses enumerator selection and training, followed by suggestions on communicating assessment results back to affected communities. After a series of key literature recommendations, the report closes by showcasing, in a Spotlight, the differences between two major datasets.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
Since the publication of the ACAPS Zimbabwe Tropical Cyclone Idai Briefing Note on 19 March, severe flooding continues to affect eastern Zimbabwe. In total, it is estimated that 270,000 people have been affected in nine districts, mainly in Chimanimani (115,000) and Chipinge (122,000) districts, Manicaland province. This marks a significant increase of more than 250,000 people since ACAPS‘ last report, likely due to increased access to previously cut-off areas and improved data. As of 25 March, more than 180 people have been killed, 170 injured and 330 remain missing. There is now confirmation that at least 4,500 people have been displaced. Main priorities remain health assistance, food, and shelter provision.
The socioeconomic crisis in Venezuela continued to deteriorate throughout 2018, leading to further collapse of services, deterioration of health facilities, food security, and nutrition among the population, and one of the biggest mass displacements in South America’s history. In December 2018, inflation stood at 2,500,000%, and this is expected to keep increasing. Food availability is hampered by import restrictions, and price increases reduce access to food, medicine and other basic goods. The economic crisis is exacerbated by the deepening political crisis. This is characterised by the erosion of democratic institutions and growing civil discontent. The standoff between the government and the opposition is exacerbating the risk of armed confrontation, and the likelihood of international intervention seems increasingly likely.
Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall on the city of Beira, central Mozambique on 14 March with sustained wind of up to 185km/h and torrential rains affecting Sofala, Zambezia, Tete and Manica provinces, bringing wide-spread destruction across parts of Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe. So far there are 1.85 million people affected, including nearly 127,500 people displaced and sheltered in 143 accommodation centres; also 468 people were confirmed dead in Mozambique, more than 1,500 people injured, and some 90,000 homes damaged and destroyed. The impact on food security and livelihoods will affect the population in the long term, due to extensive damage to crops right before the harvest due in March-April as well as loss of goods in markets, seeds and tools. Health needs are also increasing with cases of diarrhoea and respiratory diseases reported.
In the region of Liptako Gourma, overlapping Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, an upsurge in violence since the beginning of 2018 has led to the displacement of more than 235,000 people. In Mali, long-standing tensions between Dogon (pastoralist farmers) and Fulani (nomadic herders) communities over access to land and water points escalated into clashes in 2018, and “self-defence” militias associated with both communities have led a series of attacks on the civilian population. The conflict, exploited by Islamist armed groups to strengthen their presence in the region, has spilled over into both Niger and Burkina Faso where tensions between communities are increasing and attacks against civilians, led by armed groups operating across the borders, have become more frequent. In Burkina Faso, the country most affected by the upsurge of violence in 2019, more than 70,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the year. IDPs are in urgent need of food and shelter assistance in particular. Access to health services and education are also constrained for both IDPs and host communities.
Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall on the evening of 14 March, on Beira city (Sofala province) in central Mozambique. Reports estimate that 600,000 people in Sofala, Zambezia, Tete, Niassa, Manica and Inhambane provinces have been affected and are in need of humanitarian assistance. So far 150 people are reported dead (including 66 due to flooding before the cyclone impact) and more than 1,500 injured, with the toll expected to increase in the coming days. Prior cyclone-related flooding had already displaced 17,000 people and very likely thousands more were displaced after the cyclone passage. Houses, health, and education facilities have been severely damaged in the provinces affected, particularly in and around Beira. Extensive damage to livestock and planted crops has also been reported.
Since the publication of the ACAPS Malawi Floods Briefing Note on 12 March, severe flooding has continued in southern and central regions of Malawi. In total, an estimated 922,900 people have been affected across 14 districts, with 56 deaths and 577 injuries reported and more than 125,000 displaced. The number of people reported as being affected by flooding has increased by more than 450,000 since the last ACAPS report. This trend can likely be attributed in part to the impact of Cyclone Idai, which has exacerbated rainfall across Malawi, and potentially to new information becoming available. Response gaps include shelter, food, health, and WASH. There is an elevated risk that rain linked to Tropical Cyclone Idai will persist in southern and central regions of Malawi, which will likely continue to drive humanitarian needs in flood-affected areas.
Tropical Cyclone Idai hit eastern Zimbabwe with heavy rains and strong winds on 15-16 March. Manicaland and Masvingo provinces are mostly impacted, facing massive destructing caused by floods and landslides. An estimated number of 12,500 to 15,000 people have been affected overall, with at least 9,600 people (1,600 households) in the hardest hit districts, Chimanimani and Chipinge (Manicaland province). As of 18 March at least 82 people have died, 200 people are injured, thousands are displaced, and many properties, crops and livestock have been damaged and destroyed. More than 200 people are still missing. Assessments are on going and numbers are likely to increase. Priority needs are shelter, WASH, food, livelihood, and health assistance.
Tropical Cyclone Idai that developed from a tropical depression beginning on 9 March made landfall on the evening of 14 March through Beira city, Sofala province, central Mozambique. 600,000 people are estimated to be affected. Heavy rains and flooding over recent days have already affected 141,000 people, displaced 17,100 and killed 66 people. Stronger winds, storm surge and heavy rains are expected to affect the provinces of Zambezia, Sofala, Tete, Manica and Niassa until 17 March. 15 transit centres have been set up in Zambezia and Tete to assist the displaced population.
Heavy rains and flooding have affected several thousand people in nine provinces across the country. The most severely affected provinces are Kandahar, Helmand, Farah, Herat and Badghis. The death toll currently stands at 70 people but is likely to increase as more information is made available. More than 8,670 houses have been damaged or destroyed, as well as agricultural land and infrastructure including water systems, increasing the risk of water- and vector- borne diseases. Response gaps include emergency shelter, food, NFIs, winter clothes and emergency latrines.
Heavy rains over 5-8 March caused flooding in the Southern region of Malawi. As of 10 March, at least 14 districts have been impacted, affecting approximately 468,650 people and displacing more than 31,700 people. At least 30 people have been killed and over 370 injured. Assessments are ongoing. On 8 March, the president declared a state of disaster in the areas affected by ongoing rain and flooding. Priority needs are shelter, WASH, food, livelihood and health assistance.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the WASH conditions and needs in the Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar. It presents the WASH Severity Index, which classifies the Rohingya population at camp-level into five groups by level of need: very high severity, high severity, moderate severity, low severity, and very low severity.
These severity scores were calculated for water, sanitation, and hygiene as well as an overall WASH index. Need is calculated using a combination of indicators from the REACH-UNICEF WASH Household Assessment – Monsoon Follow-up. The Index thus helps to understand where the severity of WASH needs is the highest. The severity index is calculated on the current level of response. There is no “no severity” category as all Rohingya refugees are dependent on aid.
In this report, findings from the REACH-UNICEF survey are contrasted with data from the Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) survey. A secondary data analysis, interviews with WASH experts, and field visits complement the results.
Following the signing of the peace agreement between the Government and the FARC in 2016, there has been a reshuffling of illegal armed groups such as the ELN and EPL, with an escalation of fighting for the control of land and illicit crop production in areas vacated by FARC. Over 30,000 people were displaced in mass displacements in 2018, double the amount recorded in 2017. Attacks against human rights activists and community leaders also increased in 2018. The Venezuelan refugee crisis, with over 1 million Venezuelans now living in Colombia, is aggravating the overall humanitarian situation. The convergence of both crises is particularly severe in the Catatumbo region, Norte de Santander, where the presence of armed groups is causing displacement and increasing protection needs for Venezuelan migrants.
The 2018 Deyr rainy season (October-December) was poor, with parts of Somaliland receiving only 25-50% of average rainfall. Some regions have experienced drought for several seasons. Sanaag and Sool are among the regions worst affected by poor rains, with large moisture deficits and drought conditions. The food security situation is worsening in multiple regions. Over half the total population are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or higher levels of food insecurity in the following regions: Awdal, 368,000 people (55% of its population); Woqooyi Galbeed, 686,000 (55%); Togdheer, 412,000 (57%); Sanaag, 362,000 (67%); and Sool, 233,000 (71%). Areas of concern include Northern Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, which are experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions. GAM rates of 10-14.9% are present in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer. GAM rates over 15% are present in Sanaag and Sool. Populations classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse require interventions aimed at reducing food consumption gaps, eradicating acute malnutrition, saving lives, and protecting and saving livelihoods in order to prevent the deterioration of the humanitarian situation.
Violent clashes involving the Banunu and Batende communities in Yumbi, Mai-Ndombe province, DRC between 16 and 18 December 2018 caused at least 535 fatalities, injured some 150, and displaced approximately 30,000 people. While some 16,000 people crossed Congo river into Republic of the Congo/Congo-Brazzaville (abbreviated “Congo-B”), 12,000 others were internally displaced to small islands on the Congo river or remote localities in the countryside. Both the IDPs in DRC and the refugees in Congo-B lack adequate shelter and have lost their livelihoods. Inadequate WASH facilities and the ongoing rainy season increase risks of waterborne diseases.
Sudan has faced severe economic challenges since the beginning of 2018. The elimination of wheat and flour subsidies in February 2018, coupled with continual devaluations of the Sudanese pound (SDG) caused shortages of essential commodities and hard currency. The economic crisis is disrupting public services, impacting agricultural activities, and resulting in dramatic price increases for staple foods. Deteriorating living standards triggered renewed countrywide protests since mid-December 2018. Calls for President Al-Bashir to resign are rising and protection concerns are increasing as protests are often violently dispersed, leaving many dead or injured and at least 1,000 demonstrators arrested.
Households across Sudan, including most IDPs, are struggling to meet their basic needs as staple food prices for wheat, millet and sorghum increased by 150-200% in 2018. Limited access to food, reduced purchasing power, and few livelihood alternatives for farmers have left an estimated 5.76 million people facing severe levels of food insecurity, especially in Khartoum, Red Sea, Blue Nile, White Nile, South Kordofan, Kassala, Gedaref and Darfur states. Priority needs are food and health, as well as livelihood support and the availability of educational services.
At least 35,000 people from Nigeria – the majority of whom are women, children, and the elderly – have sought refuge in Cameroon from repeated Boko Haram attacks after security forces left Rann town (Kala Balge Local Government Area, Borno state) on 27 January. Most of the population left with them, heading towards nearby Goura town, Far North region, Cameroon where they have settled in makeshift camps and are in need of shelter. Rann was also home to a camp housing up to 80,000 IDPs displaced by Boko Haram’s Islamist insurgency. The refugees urgently need food, NFIs, water, shelter and medical assistance. There are protection concerns over refugees attempting to return to Rann to collect personal possessions.
At least 49 people have been killed following an attack on 1 January 2019 in Yirgou and a string of retaliations by the armed group Ansaroul Islam and Koglweogo auto-defence groups in surrounding villages in the Centre-Nord and Sahel regions. The Sahel region has been increasingly impacted by the presence and activities of Islamist armed groups whose influence has also spread to the Nord, Centre-Nord and Est regions. The events led to the displacement of at least 6,100 people but this figure is likely to reach more than 12,300 as registrations are still ongoing. Displaced populations are in need of food and shelter assistance. Access to health services and education are also constrained for both IDPs and host communities.
Heavy rains, strong winds and cold temperatures caused by storm Norma, which hit Lebanon on 8 January, have
s severely affected over 11,300 Syrian refugees, including 6,000 children, in more than 360 settlements sites. The makeshift housing arrangements are not adequate to deal with the harsh conditions. At least 700 Syrian refugees have been evacuated and 900 Syrian refugees are displaced by the impact of the storm. Akkar, Baalbek-Hermel and Bekaa governorates are worst hit by heavy snowfall and flooding. Priority needs are shelter, winterisation kits including blankets, warm clothes, and heating fuel as well as health, WASH and food assistance.
Multiple internal conflicts have led to displacement and a significant increase in humanitarian needs across Ethiopia in 2018. There are 2.8 million IDPs in the country, mainly due to insecurity and violence in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNPR) and Oromia border regions, Somali and Oromia border regions and Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia border regions. Ethiopia also hosts over 900,000 refugees from neighbouring countries. After the opening of the Eritrea-Ethiopia border, around 15,000 Eritreans have been registered at the Endabaguna Reception Centre since September 2018. In addition, 220,000 Ethiopians returned from Saudi Arabia since 5 May 2017, with the majority being forced returns. Needs are further exacerbated by protracted drought and episodes of severe flooding. Continuing food insecurity, malnutrition and water shortages, mainly in pastoral areas, as well as the risk of disease outbreaks are the main humanitarian concerns in the country. Humanitarian needs have increased across all sectors in 2018.
Over 22,370 migrants have passed through Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) since the beginning of 2018, compared to 1,166 in 2017. Migrants are living in sub-standard conditions ahead of freezing winter temperatures. Shelter and NFIs are the most urgent needs.
This report covers changes and key issues recorded in the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh between July, September, and November. It includes a review of secondary data, as well as the results of a multi-sector prioritisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub: the Basic Needs Gap Index. This index is based on Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) Round 13 data and covers gaps in shelter and NFIs, food, health, sanitation and water supply, and is meant to illustrate the severity of need across camps and blocks in the Rohingya settlements.
Moroccan authorities have dismantled shelters and arrested over 6,500 migrants between July and September 2018, forcing thousands of migrants to increasingly move to cities, and away from makeshift shelters in forests near Tangier and Nador, where they waited to cross the Mediterranean sea to reach Europe. There are various informal urban camps that are likely to have an increasing number of migrants in Morocco. The informal camp in Ouled Ziane, Casablanca is one such camps with an increasing number of migrants reported since the beginning of December 2018.
The 16 February 2019 elections are likely to be a close race between President Buhari, from the All Progressive Congress (APC), primarily supported by herding communities, and Abubakar, from the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), primarily supported by farming communities. There is a risk that the tense political climate during the pre-election period will worsen ongoing intercommunal tensions in Nigeria’s Middle Belt between farming and herder communities, who are largely dissatisfied with the federal and state governments’ responses to the farmer-herder violence in 2018. Affected areas are likely to include Taraba, Benue, Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Adamawa, Zamfara, Rivers, Ekiti, Enugu, Ogun, and Bayelsa states.
Tensions are likely to increase into more violence as militias become more organised, government responses provoke violence, and attacks become more frequent during the dry season, from November to March. The impact of violence is likely to be felt by civilians, many of whom flee in fear of attacks and retribution. This is likely to displace hundreds of thousands of people, aggravate food insecurity, and continue to put women and girls at risk of sexual and gender-based violence.
Protests against the reform of the social security system that began in April 2018 were instantly met by violent repression from Nicaraguan authorities, prompting a period of large-scale civil unrest characterised by protests, demonstrations, and strikes. Reports of violence, arbitrary detentions, harassment tactics, intimidation campaigns, and incidents of torture against opposition protesters and human rights defenders have increased and are likely to continue, with no political resolution in sight. The political crisis has led to economic turmoil and a severe economic recession, that is likely to continue in 2019, creating more unemployment and impacting service delivery in the long term. The arrival of an El Niño episode coupled with the economic recession will continue limiting food access and availability, with food security and rural livelihoods within the country likely to deteriorate further.
The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.
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This traffic lights diagram is based on the result of multisectoral priortrisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub. The tool uses NPM site assessments Round 13 data from four sectors to priortise needs geographically, at majhee block level. The 45 indicators used are selected from the sectors to build up a composite index, and combined to make up Basic Needs Gap Index at majhee block level. Each indicators are evaluated for their inclusion in the priortrisation tool and selected according to the amount of variation it revealed. The Betti-Verma method is used to calculate the weight of each indicator and multiple deprivation tool is used to calculate the index in STATA. Additional explanation can be found in the Rohingya Influx Overview. Camps and sites are too large and diverse to be effective planning devices. The analysis for the Basic Need Gap Index was done at majhee block level because the majority of differences and variations in needs are between majhee blocks; and camp level analysis can hide the pockets of high need area.
The traffic lights diagram above is based on the result of multisectoral priortrisation tool developed by Analysis Hub. The tool uses NPM site assessments Round 12 data from five sectors to priortise needs geographically, at majhee block level. The 32 indicators are selected from the sectors to build up composite index; combine to present basic need gap index at majhee block level. Each indicators are evaluated for their inclusion in the priortrisation tool and selected according to the amount of variation that each indicator revealed. The Bette Verma method is used to calculate the weight of each indicator and multiple deprivation tool is used to calculate the index in STATA. Additional explanation can be found in Rohingya Influx Overview. Camps and sites are tool large and diverse to be effective planning devices. The analysis for basic need gap was done at majhee block level because the majority of differences and variations in needs are between majhee blocks; and camp level analysis can hide the pockets of high need area. To illustrate this, each gap in above diagram is presented at majhee block level.
The traffic lights chart depicts an initial multi-sector overview of needs from Round 11 of the NPM Site Assessment – these results are preliminary and require further analysis. Of the 37 indicators have been used in the construction of the Basic Needs Gap, have already been analysed and included in the previously-documented Prioritisation Index and its component sector sub-indices. This product displays results at both camp and mahji block-level, as pockets of high need and other variations cannot be understood through camp-level analysis alone. The size of each point reflects the number of people in need. Sites and blocks are scaled separately. The percentage of persons with needs in that sector are listed next to each site.
The traffic lights diagram above is based on the results of a multi-sector prioritisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub. The took uses NPM data from five sectors to prioritise needs geographically, at the block level. The 30 indicators which form the prioritisation tool have been weighted and combined into the Basic Needs Gap – it and its component sector gaps, are included in the excel workbook accompanying this one-pager. Indicators were evaluated for their inclusion in the prioritisation tool and selected according to the amount of variation that each indicator revealed. Additional explanation may be found in the Rohingya Influx Overview; and the methodology behind the tool can be found in the technical brief Building a Prioritization Index with NPM Round 9.
This chart contains headline indicators broken down by Sector. This has been done to present a initial overview of the results whilst a more thorough report on Round 9 is developed. The NPM Site Assessment is a regular data collection and analysis exercise.
For Round 9, more than 1,800 respondents (mostly mahjis) were interviewed. The total Rohingya population enumerated is 898,312. This summary includes 38 camps and excludes 15,844 people across 77 blocks out of 1,807, or 2% of the population, whose responses have been anonymised as they are predominantly small settlements in host communities and may be easily identified.
Torrential rainfall on 22 and 23 November caused severe flooding across Iraq. Ninewa and Salah al-Din are the most affected governorates with bridges and roads damaged and villages inundated with water. In total, at least 22,000 people in Ninewa governorate and 10,000 people in Salah al-Din governorate are affected, including people still displaced from conflict. Thousands of civilians are newly displaced due to the floods. Displaced households need urgent shelter assistance. NFIs, WASH, food security and livelihoods, education and health assistance are also needed. The government is responding and international aid actors are present in the country.
An IDP settlement in Alindao town was attacked on 15 November after tensions rose between Union for Peace in Central African Republic (UPC) fighters and anti-Balaka militias in the area. At least 60 people were killed and more than 18,000 people fled the city to find safety in other parts of town or in the bush. The IDP camp burned down, leaving the camp population in urgent need of shelter and NFI support.
These scenarios consider how migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa (including across the Mediterranean Sea) might evolve in the first half of 2019 and the potential humanitarian consequences.
These scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Rather, they describe situations that could occur in the coming six months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working on migration. The time frame is until June 2019 although the scenarios may remain valid some months longer.
ACAPS has developed these scenarios for the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) under the DFID-funded Safety, Support and Solutions – Phase 2 programme.
This report covers changes and key issues recorded in the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh between July and September/October. It includes a review of secondary data, as well as the results of a multi-sector prioritisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub: the Basic Needs Gap Index. This index is based on NPM Round 12 data and covers gaps in shelter and NFIs, food, health, sanitation and water supply, and is meant to illustrate the severity of need across camps and blocks in the Rohingya settlements.
Since 13 October, several thousand migrants have left Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to form two large caravans and multiple smaller groups travelling by foot towards the United States border. At least 9,000 people have entered Mexican territory since 19 October. Protection concerns as well as urgent food, water, health and shelter needs have been reported. In the lead-up to the US mid-term congressional elections the caravan has become a highly politicised issue, which put pressure on the Mexican state to prevent migrants entering the US and to create incentives for migrants to apply for asylum in Mexico.
Since 13 October, several thousand migrants have left Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to form two large caravans and multiple smaller groups travelling by foot towards the United States border. Protection concerns, as well as, urgent food, water and shelter needs, have been reported. Guatemalan and Mexican authorities are attempting to block migrants’ progress or return them to their countries of origin. The caravan has become a politicised issue. The caravan’s intention to continue, combined with the determination of the US to stop migrants, is likely to create negative outcomes and conditions for migrants.
This report covers changes recorded in the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh during the monsoon season. It includes a review of secondary data, as well as the results of a multi-sector prioritization tool developed by the Analysis Hub, called the Basic Needs Gap Index. This index is based on NPM Round 11 data and covers gaps in shelter and NFIs, food, health, sanitation and water supply, and is meant to illustrate the severity of need across camps and blocks in the Rohingya settlements.
12,000 people have been affected by flooding and landslides in Bukalasi and Buwali sub-counties in Bududa district since 11 October. The Bududa landslide disaster followed three days of consistent and heavy rainfall in the areas around Mount Elgon National Park in Bukalasi. 858 people have been displaced. 51 deaths have been reported. Reported humanitarian needs are shelter, food, healthcare and NFIs.
Over 257,800 people have returned from northeastern Angola to the greater Kasai region of DRC since 1 October. During displacement, DRC nationals have experienced violence and human rights abuses, and many have arrived with almost nothing. Food, medical, protection and shelter interventions are required, as the host communities in greater Kasai were themselves already facing severe food insecurity and a cholera outbreak.
On 7 October, presidential elections in Cameroon were accompanied by electoral related violence in the anglophone regions of Northwest and Southwest. The new violence is likely to have displaced more people, which would add to the estimated number of 246,000 that were displaced as of August 2018 since the beginning of the crisis in 2017. The newly displaced are likely to be in need of food, shelter, health and wash assistance.
Tropical cyclone Titli made landfall on the south-west coast of Gopalpur in Andhra Pradesh in the early morning of 11 October, before moving north-west, crossing north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha with maximum winds of approximately 165 kmph. Some 360,000 people, particularly from low-lying and coastal areas, were evacuated prior to the cyclone, but only 9,000 were still in relief centres as of 16 October. Strong winds have damaged approximately 29,000 houses and disrupted roads, communication and electricity supply across Odisha state and Andhra Pradesh states. The most severely affected areas are Ganjam, Gajapati and Rayagada districts in Odisha and Srikakulam, Vizianagaram districts in Andhra Pradesh.
Over 100,000 people fleeing ethnic violence have been displaced in Benishangul-Gumuz (mainly in Kamashi Zone) and Oromia regions (mainly East Wollega and West Wollega zones). There are indications that displacement is rising, though the size of the displaced population is not clear. Urgent humanitarian needs are reported, including food, shelter, NFI and health.
A magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck Haiti on 6 October, and was followed by a magnitude 5.2 aftershock on 7 October and a magnitude 4.2 aftershock on 8 October. The departments affected by seismic activity were Artibonite, North and North-West.
So far, 17 people have died and at least 421 have been injured. The earthquakes destroyed 353 houses and damaged 7,430. An estimated 31,132 people were affected, although needs assessments are still being completed.
Considering the presence of UN agencies, the scale of pre-positioned aid and the reported response by the government as well as national and external relief actors, the need for international assistance and the impact are estimated at low to moderate.
Heavy rains that started on 4 October in Honduras have caused flooding and landslides across the country. Most damage has been reported in Francisco Morazán, Valle, and Choluteca departments, where a red alert was issued by the government. 12,076 people have been affected by the floods. 963 homes were damaged, including 169 flooded, and nine completely destroyed. Among them, 7,234 people have been evacuated, and 6,789 moved to 78 temporary shelters.
Several earthquakes struck Central Sulawesi province from 28–29 September. The strongest had a magnitude of 7.5 and triggered a tsunami that hit land at a speed of 800km per hour with waves of up to 6m. Land liquefaction caused by the earthquake also had serious humanitarian consequences as the fate of two villages with approximately 5,000 residents remains uncertain. At least 74,000 people have been displaced and 2,010 people have died, and these numbers continue to rise. At least 616,000 people have been affected.
Since the publication of ACAPS Nigeria Floods Update I Briefing Note on 26 September, rains have continued although Niger and Benue river levels have dropped slightly. As of 26 September the flooding of the Niger and Benue rivers is affecting 826,400 people and displacing 176,300 people across 12 states. Assessments are ongoing, and numbers are likely to increase. Since 26 September, some 200 deaths and 1,035 injuries have been reported. Assessments indicate that around 17,800 homes were damaged or destroyed across all affected states as of late August. Shelter, food, NFIs, and medical assistance continue to be key needs for the affected population. There is no available data from Adamawa and Taraba states.
Several earthquakes struck Central Sulawesi province from 28–29 September. The strongest earthquake had a magnitude of 7.5 and triggered a tsunami that hit land at a speed of 800 kph with waves of up to 6m. Around 42,000 people have been displaced and 1,200 people killed, with these numbers expected to continue rising rapidly. At least, 300,000 people were exposed to category 5-8 shaking, while up to 1.5 million people who live in the area may be affected.
In the northern state of Sinaloa, more than 150,000 people were affected by the passage of tropical depression 19-E near the eastern coast of Mexico from 18–21 September. Around 3,500 people were evacuated to temporary shelters and flooding damaged more than 19,000 houses. The agricultural sector reported significant damage and loss of livelihoods.
Since the publication of ACAPS Nigeria Floods Briefing Note on 21 September, river levels in most of the 12 affected states remain high due to flooding, which has affected 441,251 people, and displaced 141,369 people between late August and 24 September. A total of 108 deaths and 192 injuries have been reported as of late August. Rainfall is expected to continue for the next week. Rivers and Bayelsa states are estimated to be amongst the worst affected states where water levels continue to rise. Initial assessments indicate that 13,031 homes were damaged or destroyed across all affected states as of late August. Shelter, food, NFIs and medical assistance continue to be key needs for the affected population.
Heavy rainfall has caused the Niger and Benue rivers to overflow, displacing thousands across 12 states as of late August. The National Emergency Management Agency has declared an emergency in Kogi, Niger, Delta and Anambra states, and is monitoring eight other states in central and southern Nigeria. In addition to river flooding, flash floods have occurred in central and northern Nigeria since July, affecting Katsina, Kano, Jigawa and Sokoto states. Thousands of houses have been destroyed across all affected states and the affected population has lost household and personal belongings. The floods have caused considerable damage to farmland across Nigeria. There is an urgent need for shelter, NFI, food and livelihood assistance.
Typhoon Mangkhut made landfall on Luzon island in the northern Philippines on 15 September, affecting more than 890,000 people in Ilocos region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, National Capital Region (NCR) as well as Calabarzon, Mimaropa and Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR). As of 18 September, over 236,000 people are displaced, of whom 160,000 are staying in evacuation centres while around 73,600 are staying outside evacuation centres. The storm killed at least 65 people and damaged at least 1,477 houses. Shelter repair materials and NFIs are urgently needed. Strong winds and heavy rain caused significant damage to food crops, increasing livelihood and food needs.
Since mid-September, conflict has escalated between the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces and the Taliban in Sar-e-Pul, Jawzjan and Balkh provinces. Parliamentary elections will be held on 20 October and violence will likely continue in the runup to the vote. An unknown number of people have been displaced in the affected provinces. More people will probably be displaced as fighting can be expected to continue in the coming weeks. Continued insecurity will also mean that people are unlikely to be able to return home quickly and will be in need of humanitarian assistance. Lack of security in Sar-e-Pul and Jawzjan provinces will prevent IDPs and host communities from accessing basic services.
An outbreak of cholera declared on 6 September has killed at least 30 people and infected at least 5,460. The most severely affected areas are the two epicentres of the outbreaks in the suburbs of Glenview and Budiriro in western Harare. The outbreak has spread from Harare to Chitungwiza, and west to Gokwe and Bulawayo. Cholera is reportedly spreading to different areas of the country. Poor WASH and health infrastructure are facilitating the rapid spread of the disease. High WASH needs, including clean drinking water, hygiene promotion and temporary sanitation facilities, have been reported.
On 29 August, damage to Swar Chaung dam in Myanmar’s Bago Region led to flooding across four townships: Yedashe, Taungoo, Oktwin and Kyaut Gyi. Flooding affected at least 85 villages and by 7 September, some 78,500 people from the four townships had to leave their homes. Hundreds of houses were damaged or destroyed, and more than 60,000 acres of farmland were flooded. As of 6 September, flooding had led to the closure of 325 schools, as infrastructure and materials were damaged.
Manam Volcano, on an island off the coast of Madang province in northern Papua New Guinea, erupted early in the morning of 25 August. Lava and ash are affecting nine of 13 villages on the island, which has a population of about 7,000 people. As of 28 August, two of these villages, Dangale (239 people) and Kolang (143 people), have been evacuated to unaffected locations on the island.
Manam is one of PNG’s most active volcanoes. In 2004, a series of eruptions resulted in the evacuation of more than 9,000 people to care centres on the mainland. Unresolved issues around their resettlement from the 2004 displacement make people who have already experienced displacement and chosen to return reluctant to leave the island and go back to living in care centres on the mainland.
The volcano is active and continues to emit light to moderate ash. Further significant eruptions are possible. Accurate monitoring of the volcano is not possible at the moment because the equipment of the Rabaul Volcanological Observatory is undergoing maintenance. Heavy ash fall has also affected nearby Boisa Island, home to 872 people.
Heavy rain that began in late July 2018 has caused flooding in several parts of the country. As of late August, more than 18,000 people were affected, 3,200 houses destroyed, and some 1,800 head of cattle killed. The affected populations are in need of shelter, NFI, and WASH assistance. Longer-term livelihoods assistance is highly likely to be needed in the aftermath of the floods.
The deepening political and socio-economic crisis in Venezuela has led to one of the biggest mass displacements in the history of South America. Although no consolidated figure for the region is available, all sources indicate that migration from Venezuela to neighbouring countries is drastically increasing. 117,300 Venezuelans filed asylum claims in the first half of 2018 alone, already more than the number of asylum claims reported at the end of 2017 (113,438).
Many Venezuelans in host countries are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Food, nutrition, health and WASH needs have been identified. Protection assistance is also crucial, including legal help with documentation in order to access healthcare and employment. Venezuelan migrants also face growing xenophobia from host communities, and are at risk of exploitation, trafficking, and SGBV.
As the crisis inside Venezuela continues to deteriorate, host countries are increasingly struggling to respond to the influx of Venezuelans. The rising number of people entering neighbouring countries is putting a strain on basic services, especially in border areas. Recent measures in several countries deter Venezuelans from entering, such as limiting admission to people with a passport, or enforcing quotas at the border.
Intercommunal conflict in the Somali and Oromia border regions that escalated on 4 August has led to the internal displacement of more than 141,000 people. Shelter and health assistance are among the most urgent needs for the IDPs. The areas most affected by the conflict are Jijiga in Somali region and East Hararghe area in Oromia, where fatalities among the population were reported. With the exception of a reported influx of around 2,000 displaced people into Mekelle Town of Tigray region, there is no other information regarding the impact of the August events on Tigray.
1,489 cholera cases (including 26 deaths) have been reported in Maradi region since 15 July. After showing signs of improvement in early August, the outbreak intensified after 10 August. More than 930 cases, including at least 19 deaths, have been reported since 11 August. The outbreak was initially contained in Madarounfa department but has now spread to the heavily populated city of Maradi, the capital of Maradi region. Heavy rainfall and floods in the area have affected more than 20,000 people and are exacerbating the risk of contamination.
On 17 August, a fire broke out in the Nyalukemba neighbourhood of Ibanda Municipality in the city of Bukavu, Sud Kivu, only a few days after two fires affected the neighbouring municipality of Kadutu. 289 houses were damaged, and between 2,500 and 3,000 people were left homeless in the aftermath of the fire. They are yet to receive any shelter and NFI assistance. Parts of the only health clinic in Nyalukemba were destroyed, along with medicine and medical equipment stored in a pharmacy. WASH and food needs have also been reported.
As of 18 August, 91 cases of Ebola and 50 deaths (CFR 54.9%) have been reported in Ituri and Nord Kivu provinces of DRC. Conflict and insecurity in both areas are aggravating the crisis and increasing the risk the disease will spread further. Conflict is hampering humanitarian access of health workers to the local population, as well as driving displacement across the border to Uganda. Around 99,400 refugees from DRC have arrived in Uganda since January 2018, and the number of new refugees in Uganda from the two Ebola-affected provinces rose in July to 250 a day from 170 a day. The Ebola outbreak itself is also a cause for cross-border migration, as people try to leave the affected areas.
Heavy rainfall from 23–25 July caused flooding in El Nuhud town, West Kordofan state. An inter-agency rapid assessment concluded on 2 August estimated that more than 23,000 people had been affected in El Nuhud alone. Shelters and WASH infrastructure have been significantly damaged. The ongoing humanitarian response has been insufficient to meet the needs in El Nuhud. At 13 August, at least 4,000 people are reported to remain in need of humanitarian assistance, particularly emergency shelter and WASH assistance. Other areas are affected but beyond the scope of this note.
The southwestern state of Kerala has been facing the worst monsoon season since 1924, causing severe flooding and landslides especially in the northern part of the state, where eight districts remain on red alert. As of 14 August, over 60,000 people have been evacuated to some 500 relief camps across the state, and 39 deaths have been reported. Beginning 8 August and as 14 August, this is the second major flood in Kerala this monsoon season, and the impact is greater than in July, when over 34,000 people were displaced in 265 relief camps. The affected population is in need of food, shelter, NFI, WASH, and health assistance. Emergency national and international response has been prompt and coordinated; however, longer-term assistance is likely to be needed in the aftermath of the floods.
On 5 August, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck the island of Lombok in Indonesia, with its epicentre located inland in North Lombok. The area had already been impacted by a 6.4 magnitude earthquake on 29 July, with its epicentre in East Lombok. On 9 August, the island was again hit by a 6.2 magnitude earthquake, creating panic among the population and further hindering the rescue efforts. The three earthquakes were followed by a number of strong aftershocks causing widespread structural damage to shelter and public infrastructure, injuring some 2,000 people and killing at least 279 people. Data regarding displacement is ongoing but preliminary reports indicate that over 270,168 displaced people are in need of food, water, shelter, and health assistance. At least 64,534 houses have been damaged.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
On 1 August, a new Ebola Virus outbreak was declared in Mabalako health zone, Beni territory, Nord Kivu, when four samples collected from patients suffering from an ‘unknown disease’ tested positive for the virus. So far, 33 cases including 20 deaths (CFR: 60.6%) have been reported, though the latest official press release states 26 cases and 20 deaths as of 28 July. The declaration of this outbreak followed detection of a significant cluster of suspected viral haemorrhagic fever in July in Nord Kivu. Investigations found that sporadic deaths in May in the affected communities may have been related. A strike affecting the health sector in Nord Kivu is one factor why the detection and response to the virus has been impeded.
Following days of heavy rainfall due to the passage of Son-Tinh tropical storm over the country, a hydro-power dam under construction overflowed in Attapeu province, releasing 5 billion cubic metres of water. 16,256 people living in eight downstream villages of Sanamxay District were affected. Around 223 houses were partially damaged and at least 20 are completely damaged. 26 people are confirmed dead and more than 130 people are missing. These events took place while the monsoon season is ongoing which could exacerbate the situation and hamper the recovery of the affected communities.
On 23 June Fulani herdsmen attacked Berom farmers in Plateau state, triggering displacement in Barkin Ladi local government area (LGA), Jos South LGA, Riyom LGA, Bokkos LGA and Mangu LGA. As of 9 July, most reports state that over 38,000 people are displaced in 31 camps, though some estimates are much higher. The camps are overcrowded and needs include urgent shelter, wash, health and food assistance. The violence since June is the latest spike in tensions between Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in the Nigerian Middle Belt region, which have been growing since January 2018.
Escalation of hostilities between the Government of Syria and armed opposition groups have been ongoing since 17 June in Dar’a governorate, driving displacement within Dar’a and into neighbouring governorates. As of 2 July, over 270,000 people have been displaced, including at least 164,000 to Quneitra and 60,000 to the areas near Jordanian border. Urgent humanitarian needs, including shelter, food, WASH, and health, are reported, particularly in the areas bordering Jordan and Golan Heights. Fighting has resulted in casualties, disruption of services, and very limited humanitarian access.
1,149 cholera cases (including 92 deaths) have been reported in Kasai Oriental, Sankuru, and Lomami provinces since February, with the outbreak intensifying since June, with over 270 cases reported. This is the second cholera outbreak in Greater Kasai region since the crisis first erupted in August 2016. Kasai was cholera-free since 2004, and these outbreaks are a significant indication of a deteriorating humanitarian situation. Poor WASH and health infrastructure within the context of on going insecurity and displacement is exacerbating the fairly quick spread of the disease.
Around 400,000 people have been newly displaced on both sides of the regional borders of Gedeo (SNNP region) and Guji (Oromia region) zones since 1 June. In total, some 700,000 people have been displaced since a new wave of violence between the Gedeo and Guji communities started on 13 April. Insecurity continues to prevent IDPs from returning to their areas or origin. IDPs are staying in shelters in public buildings and spontaneous IDP sites. Host communities have a limited capacity to absorb the new arrivals, with high levels of food insecurity and acute malnutrition already affecting some of the local population. Needs identified include shelter/NFIs, food, WASH, and healthcare.
Heavy rainfall recorded in northeastern Bangladesh since 12 June exacerbated by a sudden increase of river water levels due to upstream flooding in India resulted in severe flooding in Moulvibazar and Sylhet districts. Flooding affected the majority of upazilas in both districts, leading to severe infrastructure damage and acute needs. Over 2,000,000 people live in the most affected upazilas. At least 250,000 of them have been affected, and over 12,000 reside in temporary shelters in Moulvibazar. An estimated 570,000 people have also been affected in Sylhet.
Fuego Volcano, the most active volcano in Guatemala erupted on 3 June generating a column of ash, lava, and pyroclastic flows up to 10km from the crater. The eruption affected over 1.7 million people in Sacatepéquez, Escuintla, and Chimaltenango departments. On 5 June a new violent descent of pyroclastic lava flow led to new evacuations and casualties. A new lahar (volcanic mudflow) formed on 7 June and is descending through the valleys of Santa Teresa, Mineral, and Taniluya. Some 12,407 people have been evacuated and over 4,000 are living in emergency shelters. Urgent shelter, health, food, and WASH needs have been identified.
The aim of this report is to map out governance structures and community participation initiatives adopted in different types of settlements. It touches upon the role of the Government of Bangladesh, the majhi system, the Camp Committees, the Para Development Committees in collective sites with host communities, and other community participation initiatives.
Tropical Cyclone Sagar with winds between 110 -115 km/h formed in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia on 19 May. It made landfall on the northwest coast of Somaliland as a Tropical Storm with 56 km/h winds, resulting in a year’s worth of heavy rains and flooding. The storm caused extensive destruction, including loss of livestock and crops, destruction of homes and critical infrastructure, and mass displacement. Damage to livelihoods, especially the death of livestock, the key source of income and sustenance for a majority of the pastoral popualtions residing in this region, is likely to aggravate existing food insecurity. Current outbreaks of AWD/Cholera also pose a health risk to affected populations. There is urgent need for WASH, shelter and NFIs, food and health assistance.
Heavy rains and flooding have continued to compound an already fragile humanitarian situation in the southern and central parts of Somalia, worsening conditions for communities who recently endured a long period of drought. The floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, critical infrastructure, latrines, and the loss of livestock and crops. There is need for shelter and NFIs, as well as WASH assistance.
The economic crisis in Venezuela has led to a deterioration of the humanitarian conditions and increased humanitarian needs. Import restrictions and hyperinflation reduce availability and access to basic goods and services. The economic crisis is exacerbated by a political crisis revolving around the erosion of democratic institutions. While the number of people in need in Venezuela and the severity of need is unclear due to lack of data, surveys conducted by local organisations point to an increasingly dire situation. Migration to other countries in South America, particularly Colombia and Brazil, has significantly increased since 2017 and the host countries are increasingly struggling to receive these arrivals. Over one million Venezuelans are estimated to live in Colombia, up from some 300,000 in mid-2017. Priority needs of people affected by the crisis inside Venezuela include food, health, nutrition, and protection. Many migrants from Venezuela hosted by countries in the region also face growing humanitarian concerns, particularly protection and shelter needs.
A tropical cyclone developed on 16 May in the Gulf of Aden, between Yemen and Somalia, known as Cyclone Sagar. It hit Djibouti on 19 May causing heavy rains and flash floods. The areas most affected by flash floods are Djibouti City and the suburb of Balbala. 25-50,000 people have been affected by flash floods and likely displaced, and two deaths have been reported. Two sectors of Obock town, in Obock Region, are also flooded. Damages to shelters by heavy rains have been reported in Ali Addeh refugee settlement. No needs have been reported for the population in Ali Addeh and Obock town.
On 19 May, Tropical Cyclone Sagar made landfall in North-western Somaliland bearing winds in excess of 120 km/h and an entire year’s worth of rain (200-300mm) affecting approximately 700,000 people and widespread destruction of property, infrastructure and the loss of livestock. The cyclone led to flooding that impacted populations previously devastated by droughts and that had not yet recovered, further worsening existing food insecurity. Urgent needs include food, shelter, WASH, and health.
On 5 January, volcanic activity on Kadovar Island, one of the six Schouten Islands of Papua New Guinea, prompted all 591 residents to evacuate. The islanders have been relocated to the Dandan Care centre, located in Turubu LLG (East Sepik Province). The 3.5 hectare site is located on a narrow strip of land physically bound by steep hills on the inland side and the sea. The ground is low-lying and sandy. It is prone to flooding during heavy rains as two running creeks (flowing from inland) flow through either side of the site as they flow out to sea. Access to the main planned resettlement site (of approximately 40 hectares) remains an outstanding issue.
Equateur province in DRC has been affected by an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD). The outbreak is believed to have begun in early April and was officially declared on 8 May. Since 3 May, 39 suspected cases have been reported, two of which have been laboratory confirmed. The full scale of the outbreak is still being determined as poor infrastructure and the remote location constrain response to the outbreak.
Since the publication of ACAPS Somalia Floods Briefing Note on 3 May 18, significant rainfall has continued in southern and central Somalia. The Juba and Shabelle rivers have burst their banks in several locations, leading to rising flood waters in riverine areas. New incidents of flash flooding have also been reported, notably in Muldug region. In total over 700,000 people have been affected by flooding, including over 228,000 people who have been displaced since mid April.
This thematic report analyses the most pressing humanitarian needs in Gaza against the backdrop of long-standing vulnerabilities, access restrictions, and political developments. Research was conducted through the secondary data analysis and conversations with key informants in Gaza, West Bank, and Israel. The report identifies key drivers of the crisis and provides an overview of emergency response preparedness. Aggravating factors have been identified to better understand the impact of potential deterioration of the security situation in Gaza. Existing information gaps and lessons learned based on the response to past acute crises in Gaza are included.
Escalation of conflict in Kachin state between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Myanmar Army has resulted in over 5,000 people being internally displaced since the beginning of April. High levels of cross-sectoral needs are reported among those newly displaced and protection of the civilian population in conflict-affected areas is of major concern, due to ongoing violence and reports of indiscriminate shelling. Over 2,000 IDPs are stranded in the forest, unable to access assistance.
Significantly above-average rainfall since the beginning of the Long Rains rainy season in March have led to flooding across the country. Between 244,000 and 260,000 people are estimated to have been displaced. Rains are expected to continue in the following weeks, meaning further flooding is likely and recovery will take time. Among the displaced population, there are needs for shelter, food, WASH, and health assistance. Active cholera outbreaks are ongoing in Garissa, Turkana, Meru, West Pokot, Isiolo, and Nairobi, and there is a risk of further spread or new outbreaks in flood-affected areas. Response is ongoing but capacity is stretched.
Increased rainfall since the beginning of April has resulted in a sharp rise in the Shabelle and Juba rivers, leading to severe flooding in southern and central Somalia. Almost 700,000 people have been affected by flooding in riverine and flood-prone areas, including over 214,200 people who have been displaced. Beledweyne district (Hiraan region) has been particularly affected, with 150,000 people displaced in Beledweyne town. Middle and Lower Shabelle, Bay, Jubaland, Galgaduud, and Banaadir regions have also been affected. In Bay, Banaadir, and Galgaduud regions flash flooding has affected IDP settlements, worsening the already vulnerable conditions of IDPs. Urgent needs include WASH, health, shelter, and food. There are concerns that the severe flooding will trigger a cholera outbreak.
On 10 April, the category 3 Tropical Cyclone Keni moved towards Fiji. More than 8,900 people are sheltered in evacuation centres across the country. Western Division and Kadavu Island were the most affected areas. People in affected areas are in urgent need of food and water. There are concerns for people living in Kadavu because of the difficulty in accessing the island and because of challenges with communication following the cyclone. Cyclone Keni moved south-east away from Fiji on 11 April. Heavy rains may continue to affect several areas of Fiji.
The following lessons have been drawn from the impact of cyclones in Bangladesh and specifically Cox’s Bazar district. Other literature reviewed includes lessons from cyclones in Myanmar. These are considered relevant for the current Rohingya crisis.
This report aims to cover the cross-sectoral needs related to the large-scale conflict driven displacement in Taizz and AlHudaydah since December 2017. It places these developments into a wider context by looking at the drivers of the conflict and the displacement in these two governorates since the escalation of conflict in March 2015.
Organisations working on the Rohingya response are preparing for the cyclone season. This brief provides background on cyclones in Bangladesh and an overview of their impact, to put the emergency preparedness planning into a wider perspective. The 2018 cyclone seasons will be different from those in the past. The influx of over 650,000 refugees residing in temporary shelters and who are not included in national preparedness and early warning mechanisms creates a significantly different level of vulnerability.
Following security operations in Moyale, Ethiopia, some 10,000 people have been displaced to Moyale in Marsabit county, Kenya, since 10 March. The displaced population is currently staying in makeshift camps around Moyale. 80% of the displaced people are women and children, including 600 pregnant women and 1,500 children under five. Multisectoral assistance is urgently needed.
This note summarizes a longer document on the potential impact of pre-monsoon and monsoon rains in the Rohingya camps of Cox’s Bazar. It has drawn on the past impact of rains in the Rohingya settlements and in Cox’s Bazar and Bangladesh more generally. The Rohingya camps at this scale have never existed in this season before so there is no direct past experience of how they have withstood a monsoon in Bangladesh. The number of people in the settlements and the nature of the temporary living conditions and facilities all indicate that the impact of a normal rainy season will make the provision of on-going response to the influx challenging. A severe monsoon will have a serious impact on needs.
Disclaimer: This note is based on a subjective assessment of the potential impact of the monsoon on camps and is considered a worst-case scenario.
This brief outlines the potential impact of rains, floods and landslides in the camps of Cox’s Bazar. To do so, it draws on past impact of rains in these camps, as well as in Cox’s Bazar and in Bangladesh more generally. It also draws on similar camp settings and natural disasters in other countries. Wherever possible, it is grounded in informal discussions with experts in their sector, meeting notes and field observations. The camps at this scale have never existed in this season before, so there is no direct past experience of how they have withstood a monsoon.
Disclaimer: This note is based on a subjective assessment of the potential impact of the monsoon on camps, and is considered a worst-case scenario.
Intercommunal violence between Lendu and Hema communities since December has internally displaced over 300,000 people and led to a severe humanitarian crisis. In a conflict where civilians are being directly targeted, protection of the affected population is a major concern. Thousands of houses have been burned down and livelihood activities, including agriculture, have been disrupted, resulting in significant needs for shelter and food assistance.
On 25 February an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 hit Papua New Guinea (PNG) affecting mainly Southern Highlands, Hela, Western Highlands, Western Province, and Enga provinces. The affected area is mountainous and remote, although impact has been reported in Mendi city, almost 100km away. An estimated 274,600 people are within 50km of the epicentre. Approximately 326,000 people are estimated to be very strongly impacted, according to the Modified Mercalli Scale. Initial reports are limited but there are indications of urgent needs, including for health, shelter and WASH assistance. Various impact, including damage, casualties and landslides, has been reported in at least seven locations: Hides, Porgera, Mendi, Nipa-Kutubu, Tari-Pori, and Huilya.
Food security remains a major humanitarian concern in 2018 in multiple contexts. ACAPS highlights in this report five of the worst affected countries, where large populations are food insecure, and where households and areas are either already in Catastrophe or Famine levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5), or are at risk of deteriorating into this situation.
On 12 February, Cyclone Gita passed over the Kingdom of Tonga, mainly affecting the islands of ‘Eua (pop. 4,950) and Tongatapu (pop. 74,679). Ha’apai (pop.6,144) was also impacted to a lesser extent. The Category Four cyclone brought heavy rain, strong winds of 230 km/h and storm surge. As the cyclone hit at low tide, the storm surge did not have a major impact. The cyclone caused extensive damage to homes and public buildings, along with the water supply, agricultural fields, and transport and communication infrastructure. Initial assessments suggest some 50,000 people are affected. Some 40 people are injured and at least 3,900 are in evacuation centres in Tongatapu.
Escalation of fighting between the armed forces of the DRC (FARDC) and armed groups in South Kivu province, DRC, have caused large population movements in January both internally and across Lake Tanganyika to Burundi. About 7,000 people arrived in Burundi between 24 and 29 January and new arrivals have been reported daily since then. Poor underlying conditions in affected areas of Burundi, including Rumonge and Makamba provinces, exacerbate acute shelter, food, WASH, health, and protection needs. Transit centres and refugee camps in the country are overstretched.
This report presents the available secondary data on the impact of Hurricane Maria as well as the current situation in Dominica four months after landfall.
The aim of this brief is to investigate the situation and needs of host communities in Cox’s Bazar. This brief first evaluates host communities’ needs related to all sectors, and it also looks at potential sources of tension among host communities and the Rohingya population.
This report aims to provide an overview of the impact of the hurricanes Irma and Maria in the Caribbean. For the purposes of this report, the focus is limited to the following seven countries: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Dominica, Sint Maarten, and Turks and Caicos Islands. All, except Sint Maarten, are Members of CARICOM. The depth of the report also reflects the limited availability of data, which in turn means that figures and information need to be updated in the future. The current data were based on the Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs) conducted in Antigua and Barbuda and in Dominica and by other available sources. These are all listed in the Reference section.
The examination of best practices and lessons learned from humanitarian efforts offer valuable insight for making improvements on the execution of future efforts. As part of the H2H Network, ACAPS has provided an analytical Lessons Learned product to support decision-making in Dominica following Hurricane Maria.
Conflict between the Government of Syria (GoS) and armed opposition groups has intensified since November 2017 in northern Hama governorate, southern Idleb governorate, and southern Aleppo governorate, causing a wave of displacement. Some 212,000 people have been displaced since 15 December, the majority into central and northern Idleb. The humanitarian situation in the affected governorates is deteriorating, with ongoing clashes, airstrikes, and shelling. The majority of IDPs live in makeshift settlements and report acute multi-sectoral needs.
Anticipatory report - On 3 January 2018, Pakistan granted Afghan refugees in Pakistan a residence extension until the end of January. This is the shortest extension ever given to Afghan refugees in Pakistan and raises concerns of imminent large-scale forced returns. Some 1.39 million Afghan refugees are registered in Pakistan, as well as an estimated one million unregistered Afghans. If returns are enforced, it is likely to have a major impact on shelter, protection, and food needs. However, previous deadlines have been threatened but not enforced, reducing the probability of the risk.
On 18 December 2017 violence escalated in Ituri and Nord Kivu provinces of north-east Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), causing displacement and an increased refugee influx into Uganda. At least 7,185 refugees have crossed into west and southwest Uganda. Refugees are being relocated to Kyangwali settlement and the Malembo C site in Hoima district, and Kyaka II settlement in Kyegegwa district. Cross-sectoral response must be strengthened as humanitarian resources and capacities are strained due to the increase in arrivals.
On 22 December tropical storm Tembin hit Mindanao island in the Philippines, affecting more than 715,000 people. More than 138,000 people remain displaced. Lanao del Norte and Lanao del Sur provinces in Mindanao were severely impacted with 41,000 and 59,000 affected people respectively. Shelter and NFI needs are high, with at least 1,600 houses destroyed across the entire affected area. There are elevated protection concerns in areas affected by the Marawi conflict (May–October 2017), which led to the estimated displacement of more than 353,000 people.
312 suspected cases of diphtheria have been reported in Yemen between mid-August and 20 December. The outbreak has resulted in 35 deaths reported. At 11%, the case fatality rate (CFR) is high. 18 out of Yemen’s 22 governorates are affected, with Ibb having the majority of cases. Children aged 5-14 account for around 50% of suspected cases. About 90% of fatalities were reported in children aged less than 15.
In the Afghan province of Sar-i Pul recent clashes over territorial control between the Taliban and the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have caused internal displacement. Over 7,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of December and are likely in need of protection, shelter, food, and health assistance. The newly displaced are in addition to an estimated 9,600 people displaced between January and November of this year.
In the 20th century, there have been multiple waves of movement of Rohingya population from Rakhine State in Myanmar to Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh and back. The 2017 exodus is by far the largest. Following each previous displacement to Bangladesh, some of the Rohingya population have returned to Myanmar, driven by both initiatives from the Government of Bangladesh to repatriate the Rohingya population, and the Rohingya population’s own initiative in returning home. Difficult humanitarian conditions, lack of legal status and inability to work in Bangladesh have contributed as pull factors to return home.
A review of documentation on the situation for those residing inside and outside camps in Bangladesh reveals patterns of persistent needs and constraints since 1978. These constraints include congestion, restrictions on freedom of movement and continued statelessness and denial of rights – which, in turn, reduce the possibility of generating income, and drive high rates of malnutrition, low access or quality of WASH facilities, low availability of educational facilities, significant protection concerns, the risk of epidemics, and high prevalence of negative coping mechanisms.
This report is a review of available literature on the Rohingya influxes into Bangladesh since 1978. The review seeks to provide a historical context to the current influx, in terms of population movement, status and sector responses. This report aims to help inform current and future humanitarian response.
As of 6 December, 110 clinically diagnosed cases of diphtheria, including six deaths have been reported, with most cases in the Balukhali makeshift settlement (BMS), located in the larger Kutupalong–Balukhali expansion site. Other cases have been detected in Jamtoli and Thangkhali settlements. Low vaccination coverage amongst the camp population increases their vulnerability to the disease, which is particularly deadly for children. Congestion in sites, unevenly distributed health facilities and poor WASH infrastructure facilitate the spread of the disease, particularly during winter. An emergency vaccination campaign targeting 250,000 children is to begin on December 10. Difficult terrain and lack of access to some areas in expansion sites are likely to hamper health services provision. Awareness raising will be important to ensure as many children as possible access immunisations.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
As of 21 November, an estimated 622,000 Rohingya refugees fled Myanmar to Bangladesh. The influx began on 25 August, after the Myanmar Army launched security operations in northern Rakhine state. In September, an average of approximately 14,500 people arrived daily. This dropped to an approximate average of 3,100 arrivals per day in October. The estimated number of people in need was 1.2 million in the latest Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) of October 2017. This number was comprised of the pre-existing caseload of Rohingya in Bangladesh (government estimates of 300,000), the new influx since 25 August (at 509,000 on 3 October), people in host communities (300,000), and a contingency for a further 91,000 people.
Access has been deteriorating throughout CAR in October and November 2017. In particular, access constraints due to violence and restrictions on movement have been reported in Batangafo (Ouham), Bangassou and Pombolo (Mbomou), Kaga-Bandoro (Nana-Grebizi), Zemio (Haut-Mbomou), and Nouffou (Mambere- Kadei). As of early November, over 200 attacks have targeted humanitarian workers, with 13 workers killed since January.
On 6 November the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition announced a temporary closure of all Yemen’s airports, seaports and land crossings, effectively halting access to commercial and humanitarian goods to 27 million people. The blockage was announced after Houthis launched a missile from Yemen targeting Riyadh airport, Saudi-Arabia on 4 November. Yemen is heavily reliant on imports for around 80-90% of its food, fuel and medical needs. On 13 November, Hadi government-controlled ports in Aden, Mokha and Mukalla as well as al Wadea land crossing were reopened. Al Hudeidah and Saleef ports, on Houthi controlled area, which process 80% of commercial and humanitarian imports, remain closed. Government-controlled ports cannot function as substitutes for the country’s main ports due to their limited offload and storage capacity. The location of these ports would require the crossing of conflict frontlines to reach the northern areas most heavily affected by food insecurity and cholera. Prior to the current blockade, the Saudi-led coalition had imposed a naval blockade on Yemen's coast, and restricted travel by air, land, and sea, therefore severely restricting the inflow of commercial and humanitarian cargo for the last two and a half years. This has left the country with critically low stocks of necessary goods, reducing capacity to cope under the current conditions.
Approximately 426,000 people living in besieged Eastern Ghouta are affected by protracted conflict and recent deterioration of access restraints. Despite the area being the part of the de-escalation agreement, the government forces renewed their airstrikes and shelling as of the end of September, which resulted in damage and loss of civilian infrastructure, hospitals, and schools. Clashes between armed groups controlling different parts of the territory compound the situation. The highest level of besiegement is reported in majority of the communities as of November, which results in severe shortages of food and medicine, leading to increasing cases of acute malnutrition.
On the evening of 12 November, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kermanshah province with widespread damage reported across the province. Sar pol-e Zahab and Qasr-e Shirin are reported hardest hit. Early estimates indicate that over 400 lives have been lost and over 6,600 people were injured. Reports indicate that an estimated 70,000 people are in need of emergency shelter.
Tropical Storm (Category 4) Damrey made landfall in Vietnam on the morning of 4 November along the south-central coastal region, particularly affecting Khanh Hoa province. 48 deaths have been reported, with an additional 11 people missing. Over 1,300 homes have been destroyed and over 122,000 partially damaged. An estimated 500,000 people have been affected in these provinces and 24,000 remain displaced in evacuation centres. Over 12,000 hectares of agricultural land have been flooded and extensive damage to marine based livelihoods has also been reported. All five south-central provinces are reporting flooded roads and as a result limited access to some areas. One of the five provinces (Phu Yen) has had power restored while the other provinces are still partially without power. Three reservoirs have reported to be operating flood discharge due to high water levels.