Middle East - EU Migration: Scenarios

ACAPS and the Mixed Migration Platform have produced a new set of Middle East–EU migration scenarios, outlining possible developments in migration via Turkey and Greece over the next six months.

Following scenario-building workshops in Brussels and Antakya in January and February, five scenarios were identified:

-              Continued restricted migration

-              Number of asylum-seekers in Greece falls

-              Number of asylum-seekers in Greece increases

-              Increased returns to Syria

-              Increased movement into Turkey

The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.