Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)2.10 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.1.30 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.2.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.1.80 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Eastern and Northern regions of Uganda are highly vulnerable to climate shocks. ? Due to reduced perception rates in Eastern region and parts of Northern region, food security levels have deteriorated, resulting in a minimum of 475,200 people from January to March 2019 combined in Crisis (IPC 3) and Emergency (IPC 4) phases of food insecurity in Karamoja and Teso sub-region. This represents around 18% of the local population. About half of the population analysed, around 1.3 million, is estimated to face Stressed (IPC2) outcomes. The highest proportion of people in Crisis are found in Kaabong (33%) and Kotido (30%) districts. The numbers are slightly higher than the average food insecure population in the region. ?
Delayed and/or below-average first season (March-June) rainfall in 2019 and water logging and flooding in previous rain season led to an absence of seasonal vegetables, reduced demands for labour and trade, and consequently reduced household incomes and access to food in April 2019. It can, therefore, be assumed that food security levels remain stable, beyond the estimated timeframe of January to March 2019. Poor households increasingly face high food consumption gaps and turned to negative coping strategies. Food prices have been rising in the past year. Rural and remote markets are more significantly affected. ?
Below seasonal rainfall from April to September is forecast, meaning improvements in terms of food security levels are unlikely. Additionally, increased incidence of pest diseases such as of Fall Army Worm (FAW) in central and northern Karamoja is likely to contribute to crop failure. ?
No recent significant humanitarian developments. The situation is being monitored by our analysis team.
Information Gaps and Needs
- Updated IPC numbers, beyond March 2019, are missing.
- Gender-segregated data among the households affected is missing.