Drought effects stretching back to 2014 were aggravated by a severe El Niño in 2016, increasing the impact in 2017, including possible famine. More than half the population, some 6.7 million people, are in need of humanitarian assistance. Drought has affected food and water supplies, leading to a major food security and nutrition crisis as well as widespread measles and cholera outbreaks. Drought has led to the displacement of some 949,000 people since November 2016, with most joining existing IDP camps, where needs are high.
Famine is possible in 2018 if humanitarian assistance is inadequate – a key concern given access remains extremely limited outside of Somaliland: Lower and Middle Juba regions are particularly inaccessible due to the Al Shabaab insurgency. The government's control is essentially limited to Mogadishu and surrounding areas, although Al Shabaab attacks in the city persist.
The INFORM index score for risk of humanitarian catastrophe ranks Somalia at 9.1 out of 10, the highest of any country. ?
31/10: Humanitarian organisations were impacted by at least 130 violent incidents in 2017 so far.
27/09: More than 100,000 IDPs were forcibly evicted from settlements from January to September 2017.
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected through January 2018 in pastoral livelihood zones of greatest concern, including Northern Inland Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, and Addun Pastoral, and in agropastoral areas of Bay and Bakool, Southern Rainfed Agropastral of Lower Shabelle, and Southern Agropastoral of Bakool, Gedo, and Hiraan.?
Shelter/NFIs: 949,000 people have been displaced by drought effects since November 2016. ?
Health: A widespread cholera outbreak has affected more people in 2017 than in 2016.
Food security: 6.7 million people are food insecure across the country, including 3.2m in severe food insecurity.
WASH: infrastructure requires maintenance, particularly in displacement settlements and areas affected by drought.
Humanitarian access: restrictions continue to affect aid delivery in south-central Somalia.
Information Gaps and needs
- Population estimates are out of date, with the most recent estimate of 1.1 million displaced people dating back to 2012
- Lack of regular gender-sensitive needs assessments for sectors other than food security and nutrition.
- No systematic explosive hazard survey has ever been conducted.