Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.30 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.90 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.2.60 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian constraints.2.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Mozambique is exposed to extreme climatic conditions and hazards such as cyclones, storms, and flash floods. Drought also occurs, primarily in the southern region. The recurrence of these events has had detrimental effects on food security and nutrition. An estimated 2 million people are severely food insecure (IPC 3 and above), including some 800,000 in need of lifesaving assistance. ?
In 2019, Mozambique was hit by two Tropical Cyclone in the same season for the first time in recorder history, affecting over 2 million people overall and bringing widespread destruction. Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall on the city of Beira, central Mozambique on 14 March with sustained wind of up to 185km/h and torrential rains affecting Sofala, Zambezia, Tete and Manica provinces. In Mozambique, Cyclone Idai affected 1.85 million people and killed over 600. More than 200,000 houses, classrooms and facilities have been destroyed, and road infrastructure has been severely damaged. An outbreak of cholera and increased cases of malaria have been reported. Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall on the evening of 25 April 2019, about 100km north of Pemba city, Cabo Delgado province resulting in 45 people death and 374,000 in need of assistance. The districts of Macomia, Ibo and Quissanga were the most severely impacted. At least 19 health posts were destroyed by the impact of the cyclone and an outbreak of cholera was declared on 1 May. The impact on food security and livelihoods will affect the population in the long term, due to extensive damage to crops right before the harvest due in March-April as well as loss of goods in markets, seeds and tools. ?
The northern province of Cabo Delgado is also being affected by a suspected Islamist insurgency since October 2017, with violent attacks displacing thousands of people and counter-attacks by the Government leading to human rights abuses. These attacks are likely to hamper registration activities for October 2019 elections. ?
INFORM measures Mozambique’s risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster for 2019 to be high, at 6/10, the same as in 2018. Mozambique’s vulnerability is measured at 6.5/10 and lack of coping capacity at 6.6/10.?
30/06: On 24 and 26 of June, suspected Islamist assailants from the group ASWJ carried out attacks in Dacia (Mocimboa da Praia) and Quionga (Palma) in Cabo Delgado province, killing 18 people. The violent insurgency has been ongoing since October 2017 in northern Mozambique, with an increase in numbers and severity of attacks since January 2019, although the group's motives remain unclear. Despite a lack of information, it is likely that temporary displacement to escape the violence took place after the attacks. ?
Islamic extremists have been launching violent attacks on civilians in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since October 2017, resulting in at least 2,000 people displaced, nearly 300 people killed, and more than 1,000 properties destroyed. ? Events involving the group, known as Ahlu Sunna Wa-Jama, have been increasing, with 20 attacks in the first two months of 2019 compared with 50 in all of 2018. ?The group’s activities have been concentrated on the coast of Cabo Delgado from Pemba to the Tanzanian border, and recent events showed a possible shift in tactics from night-time attacks on isolated homes, to coordinated daytime attacks against employees of the foreign oil company Anadarko, currently leading the biggest liquefied natural gas project in the country worth 20 billion dollars?. Government response, however, is leading to human rights abuses. Government forces have detained journalists for covering events in Cabo Delgado and subjected civilians suspected of supporting the group to perquisitions, looting, and arbitrary detention. ? If the government fails to address the social, religious, and political dynamics behind the insurgency, the attacks are very likely to continue.
The attacks have already affected the food security situation in Cabo Delgado, where Stressed levels (IPC-2) are reported along the coast compared to Minimal (IPC-1) food insecurity in the rest of the province. ? The insurgents’ strategy has been focused on destruction of property, burning houses and stalls, leading to displacement and shelter needs. ? Should this type of attack continue, food insecurity is likely to increase as more households are displaced and unable to access food or engage in agricultural activities. Livelihoods will be impacted due to insecurity and destruction. Education will likely be affected due to fear of attacks on public schools by the armed group in a show of dissent towards the State. Protection issues are likely to increase, arising from both the insurgent activity and the response of government forces. Currently there are no reported constraints on humanitarian access.
This risk was identified in the March Quarterly Risk Report