Heavy rains that began on 4 October 2023 have resulted in flash floods across Baidoa district, in Bay region, Southwest state, Somalia. The floods had affected more than 122,000 people (20,347 families) as at 23 October. The most affected regions are Baidoa city and the surrounding low-lying areas. 

This report provides a forward-looking analysis of the progressive withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission, the transition of security operations to the Somali Security Forces (SSF), and how this will worsen existing humanitarian needs in conflictaffected areas.

Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are currently experiencing one of the worst droughts in 60 years. The current drought is driving significant levels not only of food insecurity but also of WASH, health, and nutrition needs for the affected population.

This report provides an overview of four key humanitarian crises across Somalia that are expected to deteriorate or see a significant humanitarian impact during 2023. It aims at informing humanitarian decision-making and programming by anticipating humanitarian needs in different regions of the country.

This report provides an overview of the humanitarian needs resulting from the current drought in particularly affected regions of Somalia (Banadir and Bay). The report highlights key needs, the key population groups affected, coping mechanisms, compounding factors, access constraints, and response capacities for each area of focus.

This report provides a commentary on relevant datasets as it examines trends related to the economic effects of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on selected countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. 

Somalia has seen a threefold increase in extreme weather events over the last 40 years. As at October 2022, four consecutive failed rainy seasons had resulted in a drought already worse in duration and severity than previous droughts in 2010–2011 and 2016–2017. 

The report aims to enumerate the main drivers of the current food insecurity situation in Somalia, as well as impacts they may have on food security levels until the end of 2021. The report also provides an overview of groups of people who may be particularly vulnerable to food insecurity and will likely be forced to use coping mechanisms that have further adverse effects.

Heavy rains since the Gu season’s start in early April have affected more than 612,000 people across Somalia. Flash floods in northern Somalia and riverine flooding in the southern Juba and Shabelle river basins have displaced 217,000 people and killed 16. Displacement continues as river water levels rise and risk further flooding in the Juba and Shabelle river basins. 

The Deyr rainy season has brought moderate to heavy rainfall to Somalia, causing both flash floods and river overflow in the southern regions of the country. Localised rainfall coupled with heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands have led to increasing water levels in the Shabelle and Juba rivers in southern Somalia, raising the risk of widespread flooding in low-lying riverine communities.

The Horn of Africa (including northeast Uganda) is currently experiencing a prolonged drought, largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains (April-July) and long rains (October-December). Prevailing dry conditions across the region have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water in these areas. 

The 2018 Deyr rainy season (October-December) was poor, with parts of Somaliland receiving only 25-50% of average rainfall. Some regions have experienced drought for several seasons. Sanaag and Sool are among the regions worst affected by poor rains, with large moisture deficits and drought conditions. The food security situation is worsening in multiple regions. 

Tropical Cyclone Sagar with winds between 110 -115 km/h formed in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia on 19 May. It made landfall on the northwest coast of Somaliland as a Tropical Storm with 56 km/h winds, resulting in a year’s worth of heavy rains and flooding. The storm caused extensive destruction, including loss of livestock and crops, destruction of homes and critical infrastructure, and mass displacement.

Heavy rains and flooding have continued to compound an already fragile humanitarian situation in the southern and central parts of Somalia, worsening conditions for communities who recently endured a long period of drought. The floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, critical infrastructure, latrines, and the loss of livestock and crops. There is need for shelter and NFIs, as well as WASH assistance.

On 19 May, Tropical Cyclone Sagar made landfall in North-western Somaliland bearing winds in excess of 120 km/h and an entire year’s worth of rain (200-300mm) affecting approximately 700,000 people and widespread destruction of property, infrastructure and the loss of livestock. The cyclone led to flooding that impacted populations previously devastated by droughts and that had not yet recovered, further worsening existing food insecurity. Urgent needs include food, shelter, WASH, and health.

Since our last publication, significant rainfall has continued in southern and central Somalia. The Juba and Shabelle rivers have burst their banks in several locations, leading to rising flood waters in riverine areas. New incidents of flash flooding have also been reported, notably in Muldug region. 

Increased rainfall since the beginning of April has resulted in a sharp rise in the Shabelle and Juba rivers, leading to severe flooding in southern and central Somalia. Almost 700,000 people have been affected by flooding in riverine and flood-prone areas, including over 214,200 people who have been displaced. Beledweyne district (Hiraan region) has been particularly affected.

About 150,000 people are facing famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.

Severe drought conditions are rapidly deteriorating food security, nutrition, and health levels across Somalia. A pre-famine warning was declared in January, and there is currently a larger population at risk than in the 2011 famine. Below average gu (April-June) rainfall is predicted in most of the country, with famine conditions likely in localised areas if humanitarian assistance cannot reach all populations in need. 

Somalia is currently experiencing a drought that started in 2015. The whole country is affected, with northeastern areas of Puntland and Somaliland the worst affected. Humanitarian conditions in the southcentral areas of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo have deteriorated rapidly since November, with poor rainfall affecting crops and livestock.