From mid-January 2024, there has been a spike in fighting between the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) and the March 23 Movement (M23) in North Kivu province. 

L’écosystème informationnel et analytique est composé d’une communauté d’acteurs qui participent ou contribuent à collecter, analyser et diffuser de l’information et des analyses concernant les crises et réponses humanitaires en RDC.

This report presents a risk analysis of violence related to the general elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), set to take place on 20 December 2023. The report provides a brief of the current context and humanitarian situation in the country, maps out factors that could lead to violence during or after the electoral period (triggers), and identifies the potential humanitarian impacts of such violence (hazard).

More than 2,600 refugees and asylum seekers from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) entered Tanzania between 5–14 March to flee from the escalation of clashes between the March 23 Movement (M23) and the Congolese army in Kivu region. The immediate needs reported are food, WASH, shelter, and healthcare. 

Clashes between the Teke and Yaka communities over a land dispute have displaced more than 48,000 people in Kwango, Kwilu, and Mai-Ndombe provinces since 24 July. More than 180 people have died since the violence began. 

Since March 2022, the armed group March 23 Movement (M23) has been launching offensives in North Kivu. The conflict is particularly affecting Rutshuru territory in North Kivu, which is close to the border with Rwanda and Uganda. The fighting escalated on 26 October, resulting in large-scale displacement.
 

This report aims to give an overview of the humanitarian situation in the DRC, with an emphasis on the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri. It is based on publicly available information on the DRC. 

Mount Nyiragongo erupted on 22 May 2021near the city of Goma, in the east of DRC. At least 25,000 people were displaced in Sake, 25 km northwest of Goma, and 7,000 travelled towards neighbouring Rwanda to seek refuge. 

This report was produced in collaboration with partners in DRC’s DRC Education Cluster and Child Protection Sub-Cluster to support analysis contributions to the 2021 DRC Humanitarian Needs Overview. Its primary sources are a selected number of rapid needs assessments undertaken across four provinces in Eastern DRC.

On 31 May, Democratic Republic of Congo declared its 11th Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak (on record), in Wangata health zone, in the southern part of Mbandaka city, capital of Equateur province and in the city’s surrounding area, and Bikoro. Given Mbandaka is a major river port with significant connections to other parts of the DRC, there is risk of spread to other areas of DRC if tracing does not identify all cases and prevent further contamination. 

A series of violent attacks against civilians in Beni city and Beni territory in North Kivu province in November has triggered mass displacement across the territory with an unconfirmed number of people fleeing to Beni city. In response to the attacks, residents in Beni began protesting the lack of protection on 22 November. Several organisations have announced the evacuation of staff from Beni until calm is restored. 

Since early June intense intercommunal clashes between Hema and Lendu communities led to the displacement of more than 300,000 people across Djugu, Mahagi and Irumu territories of Ituri province in northeast DRC. The majority of people are staying in host communities, mostly in public buildings or in the open. Displaced people are in urgent need of shelter, NFI, and food assistance.

Since 4 May intercommunal clashes have triggered large-scale displacement across three bordering territories in Sud Kivu province. Some 125,000 people from 100 villages fled to safer neighbouring villages and to the surrounding forests. Displaced people are in need of food, shelter and NFIs, WASH and health assistance.

Since 1 May, attacks and clashes between armed groups and Congolese security forces triggered the displacement of more than 12,000 people in Nord Kivu and Ituri provinces in eastern DRC. Although exact numbers and humanitarian needs of newly displaced people are unknown, they add to more than 100,000 people who were displaced in Nord Kivu in April. 

Violent clashes involving the Banunu and Batende communities in Yumbi, Mai-Ndombe province, DRC between 16 and 18 December 2018 caused at least 535 fatalities, injured some 150, and displaced approximately 30,000 people. Both the IDPs in DRC and the refugees in Congo-B lack adequate shelter and have lost their livelihoods. 

Over 257,800 people have returned from northeastern Angola to the greater Kasai region of DRC since 1 October. During displacement, DRC nationals have experienced violence and human rights abuses, and many have arrived with almost nothing. Food, medical, protection and shelter interventions are required, as the host communities in greater Kasai were themselves already facing severe food insecurity and a cholera outbreak.

On 17 August, a fire broke out in the Nyalukemba neighbourhood of Ibanda Municipality in the city of Bukavu, Sud Kivu, only a few days after two fires affected the neighbouring municipality of Kadutu. 289 houses were damaged, and between 2,500 and 3,000 people were left homeless in the aftermath of the fire. 

On 1 August, a new Ebola Virus outbreak was declared in Mabalako health zone, Beni territory, Nord Kivu, when four samples collected from patients suffering from an ‘unknown disease’ tested positive for the virus. So far, 33 cases including 20 deaths (CFR: 60.6%) have been reported, though the latest official press release states 26 cases and 20 deaths as of 28 July. 

1,149 cholera cases (including 92 deaths) have been reported in Kasai Oriental, Sankuru, and Lomami provinces since February, with the outbreak intensifying since June, with over 270 cases reported. This is the second cholera outbreak in Greater Kasai region since the crisis first erupted in August 2016. 

Frequent and recurrent protests across the country in recent years indicate an already high level of political tension that is likely to grow in the lead up to presidential elections on 23 December.