This is an update of the Afghanistan risk overview published in September 2022. ACAPS uses a risk-monitoring framework daily. Every three months, ACAPS analysts and technical experts review the development of indicators and update the risk outlook.

This report provides a commentary on relevant datasets as it examines trends related to the economic effects of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on selected countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. 

The spotlight on social impact in Afghanistan is a series of reports that provides a pulse on intersectional vulnerabilities experienced by Afghans during a given period.

This biannual publication outlines key emerging risks in Afghanistan that might affect the humanitarian situation over the next six months. It aims to inform the humanitarian community of possible changes in context and humanitarian needs in Afghanistan to facilitate contingency planning, risk management, and response. 

One year after the fall of Kabul, this report revisits and reassesses the four scenarios developed in October 2021 in light of the current context. It aims to highlight the key developments over the past year from a humanitarian perspective. 

On 22 June 2022, an earthquake of magnitude 5.9 on the Richter scale hit eastern Afghanistan, around 46km southwest of Khost city. The earthquake has caused damage in Paktika and Khost provinces, and has killed at least 1,000 people and injured over 1,600. 

This report aims to analyse the current information and analysis ecosystem in the Afghanistan response. ACAPS analysed the data and analysis landscape for the humanitarian response in Afghanistan through a secondary review of the main humanitarian information management products published between 2019–2021. We also conducted 13  key informant interviews.

The primary purpose of the report is to support strategic planning, create awareness, and promote discussion among humanitarian policymakers, practitioners, and donors through an understanding of the possible ways in which humanitarian needs may end up being met or not – whether intentionally or unintentionally. 

This report aims to provide an overview of the recent developments related to the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan against the key trends in conflict and humanitarian needs reported in 2021.

The Taliban and the Afghan National Security Forces have been fighting in Helmand province since 11 October. Since 28 October, the fighting has moved across southern provinces. Over 87,000 people are directly affected by the closure of health facilities with a further 195,000 only able to access limited services. 

Since 16 August, fighting between the Taliban and Afghan National Security Forces in villages of Khanabad district along the Kunduz-Khanabad highway, Imam Sahib district, and Kunduz city, all in Kunduz province, displaced approximately 64,000 people within these areas; approximately 28,000 were identified in assessments as requiring immediate life-saving assistance. 

These scenarios describe possible developments in the profile of the displaced population and humanitarian access in Afghanistan over the next 18 months. 

Heavy rainfall since 25 March triggered floods across several provinces in western and northern Afghanistan affecting 17,000 people. As assessments are ongoing and some of the affected areas are difficult to access, the full impact remains unclear. Available information suggests that vast areas of agricultural land have been damaged, and livestock lost, compounding already high levels of food insecurity in the affected provinces. 

Heavy rains and flooding have affected several thousand people in nine provinces across the country. The most severely affected provinces are Kandahar, Helmand, Farah, Herat and Badghis. The death toll currently stands at 70 people but is likely to increase as more information is made available. 

Since mid-September, conflict has escalated in Sar-e-Pul, Jawzjan and Balkh provinces. Parliamentary elections will be held on 20 October and violence will likely continue in the runup to the vote. An unknown number of people have been displaced in the affected provinces. More people will probably be displaced as fighting can be expected to continue in the coming weeks. 

On 3 January 2018, Pakistan granted Afghan refugees in Pakistan a residence extension until the end of January. Some 1.39 million Afghan refugees are registered in Pakistan, as well as an estimated one million unregistered Afghans. If returns are enforced, it is likely to have a major impact on shelter, protection, and food needs. However, previous deadlines have been threatened but not enforced, reducing the probability of the risk.

In the Afghan province of Sar-i Pul recent clashes over territorial control between the Taliban and the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have caused internal displacement. Over 7,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of December and are likely in need of protection, shelter, food, and health assistance. 

Conflict between the Taliban and Afghan security forces in the northern provinces has intensified in the first week of June, especially in Kunduz province. Since the beginning of 2017, 12,000 IDPs have been displaced from Kunduz province, the majority to other provinces across Afghanistan, of which over 7,000 were displaced in May. 

Although the flow of returnees to Afghanistan has slowed since its peak in mid-2016, more than 60,000 people have returned from Iran (54,000) and Pakistan (almost 10,000) this year. They are in need of livelihoods and shelter as well as protection assistance.

Continuous heavy rainfall since February has caused severe flooding in Khashrod and Chakhansur districts in Nimroz province. As of 23 February several homes had been destroyed or swept away by flood waters, and over 20,000 hectares of arable land had been submerged in flood water. An estimated 3,000 people have been affected and displaced by flooding in both Chakhansur and Khashrod districts. Affected populations are in dire need of humanitarian assistance.